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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 27th June 2012>


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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

Ok folks, you asked for it! here's a new thread. Now get your happy hats on lol and join in the happy discussion of what may lie ahead... Yay lolwhistling.gifAnd for some reason if the storms disappoint or let you down head over to the No Storms Club for a good moan OK wink.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darwen, BB3
  • Location: Darwen, BB3

Showers bubbling up nearby now but only small at the moment, I'm wondering if anything might develop during the night now as that is always a possibility when it is like this.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Some heavy downpours over Northern Ireland ATM and a more general area of intense rainfall over the south of Ireland, any members over in Eire reporting any thunder? :)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Tbh I'm stunned by Alex Deakin's rather nonchalant forecast....whether there are thunderstorms or not, the rain through tonight and tomorrow is going to be torrential for some parts and bring a real threat of local flooding....there seems to be such an eagerness to skip over the detail that there is an, dare I say, almost negligence to what does seem almost certain for some areas of the north and west - torrential rain, potentially a few hours for some places leading to a risk of flooding.

Gets weirder the nearer we get.

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Posted
  • Location: Basildon
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon

Tbh I'm stunned by Alex Deakin's rather nonchalant forecast....whether there are thunderstorms or not, the rain through tonight and tomorrow is going to be torrential for some parts and bring a real threat of local flooding....there seems to be such an eagerness to skip over the detail that there is an, dare I say, almost negligence to what does seem almost certain for some areas of the north and west - torrential rain, potentially a few hours for some places leading to a risk of flooding.

Gets weirder the nearer we get.

This has a familiar ring to it. Volcanologists don't want to say anything in case they're wrong, they might speak out and cause a panic. If they get it right they're heroes, wrong and they loose the trust of the public.

The current silence is akin to that, no one want's to speak out but you watch, when one says the T word the rest will follow!

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Our local Look North forecast did say thundery downpours for tomorrow so some parts of the BBC are mentioning them. I think it is down to each individual forecasters interpretation of what they are given. Had it been Rob McElwee doing the forecasts he would have been getting quite excited by now!

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Whilst looking beyond the excitement of storm potential for a moment - The lakes are still very high here in Cumbria and with torrential rainfall likely resulting in some high totals this will be a rather worrying time yet again for quite a few folk! Thunder or no thunder the risk of flooding will be significant.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Our local Look North forecast did say thundery downpours for tomorrow so some parts of the BBC are mentioning them. I think it is down to each individual forecasters interpretation of what they are given. Had it been Rob McElwee doing the forecasts he would have been getting quite excited by now!

Indeed...his worshipful legend Mr McElwee would at least say "detail is rather unknown at this stage, but ingredients are there for some big thunderstorms or if not storms, thundery rain".... I miss Rob!!

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Check out those storms heading out of Spain into the bay of biscay blum.gif

.......................................................good.gif

Maybe some storms spreading towards the Glasgow area in the next couple of hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

When listening to the radio for sferics, this is the way I Do it. I tune to the lowest frequency on medium wave (AM) 520 kHZ which gives you the widest ppossible radius for detection. If you are using a small portible battery powerd radio then the radius will be around 10 to 50 miles, although this depends on the spicific radio and type of lightning. How ever, if you are using a mains powerd radio, and or one that is part of a cd/radio etc combo then you can often detect sferics upto a few hundred miles away. You can tell how far away a strike is by the sound it produces. Strikes >100 miles away will sound like sharp clicks or short quiet crackles. Strikes between 15 and 100 miles sound like distinct but soft crackles. Close strikes <15 miles away sound like strong sharp crackles or static bursts upto a few seconds in length often starting loud and ending quieter. I have found that You can sometimes even tell the type of lightning a sferic is from. IC strikes are quieter and often shorter than CG strikes, and +CG strikes are the loudest and last the longest.

This is the way I do it, but it may not be the best way although it works for me and it is surtainly a useful tool.

I hope this can help somebody with their sferic detection as I've wanted to explain how I do it for a while on here.

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Posted
  • Location: Deeside, Flintshire 20m asl
  • Location: Deeside, Flintshire 20m asl

20.5c with 71% humidity. Definitely not used to warm evenings like this! I can't even remember the last time we had thunder in these parts, looks like we may get some tomorrow morning....

EDIT... I'm an idiot. Those are the indoor readings!! Actual readings 18.7c and 56% humidity. Doh!

Edited by nwales
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.......................................................good.gif

Maybe some storms spreading towards the Glasgow area in the next couple of hours.

Some serifcs being shown up with that lot to coming out of spain XD Lets hope it can tap into all that energy and grow into a monster and coming inland into the UK and steaming right up to the Midlands (I can wish okay XD)

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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham

So this close and we are still hope guessing ?? Tv down here mentioned nothing but a few showers. hope they are wrong

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Posted
  • Location: Newtownabbey -130m asl
  • Location: Newtownabbey -130m asl

Crazy couple hours here in Belfast. Non-stop torrential rain. A lot of flash flooding being reported. Got myself my own Niagara Falls at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: W Leeds 164m ASL
  • Location: W Leeds 164m ASL

When listening to the radio for sferics, this is the way I Do it. I tune to the lowest frequency on medium wave (AM) 520 kHZ which gives you the widest ppossible radius for detection. If you are using a small portible battery powerd radio then the radius will be around 10 to 50 miles, although this depends on the spicific radio and type of lightning. How ever, if you are using a mains powerd radio, and or one that is part of a cd/radio etc combo then you can often detect sferics upto a few hundred miles away. You can tell how far away a strike is by the sound it produces. Strikes >100 miles away will sound like sharp clicks or short quiet crackles. Strikes between 15 and 100 miles sound like distinct but soft crackles. Close strikes <15 miles away sound like strong sharp crackles or static bursts upto a few seconds in length often starting loud and ending quieter. I have found that You can sometimes even tell the type of lightning a sferic is from. IC strikes are quieter and often shorter than CG strikes, and +CG strikes are the loudest and last the longest.

This is the way I do it, but it may not be the best way although it works for me and it is surtainly a useful tool.

I hope this can help somebody with their sferic detection as I've wanted to explain how I do it for a while on here.

Great thanks Chris. Fantastic explanation.

As a massive Radio 5 Live fan and huge thunderstorm fan I can get double the entertainment at any one time....!good.gif

Edited by NW Leeds Russ
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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

Cheers Chris, was very helpfulgood.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m

Crazy couple hours here in Belfast. Non-stop torrential rain. A lot of flash flooding being reported. Got myself my own Niagara Falls at the moment.

Any pictures :)

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Thanks, I rote that all on my phone as well, twice! I posted it in the other thread but it was locked as I rote it so I had to write it all again! I've got saw fingers now LOL.

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Posted
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16

When do we *think* the storms for central UK will kick off? radar looks meh unless your in Ireland?

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Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

Is this event going to be mainly a central england event?? as im looking at cape values there pretty good around c england but then the storm percentage looks good around the london area.

Edited by Mesoscale
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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Am I right thinking that around midnight onwards is the 'key time' for tonight?

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Posted
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Fire tornado
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire

Check the rain developing in the west of the channel.... Im sure it will get heavier after dark, just hope its moves inland and gets convecting!

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Posted
  • Location: Dronfield, South Yorkshire (S18)
  • Weather Preferences: Storms
  • Location: Dronfield, South Yorkshire (S18)

In light of the evening televised forecasts and updated NMM, etc, I have decided to go ahead and produce a detailed risk map of where storms could fire during the next 36 hours. Take this with a pinch of salt, it is by no means going to turn out like this, but I hope I haven't left anyone out who feels they might get a storm :)

7456236408_3587f997fc.jpg

rofl.gif

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