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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 28th June 2012>


Liam J

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Really hope I get something this week, all the right ingredients are in place but whether we can spawn something well, we won't know until on the day! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

In a sense yes tease.gif

Are our chances looking better than of late for some storms later this week. We have had good opportunities over the last few weeks, but they never seemed to materialize.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds

Really hope I get something this week, all the right ingredients are in place but whether we can spawn something well, we won't know until on the day! smile.png

Hi Liam, many parts are looking good these next 3-4 days. I'm Keithy Joe from null by the way - nice to meet you :)

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Hi Liam, many parts are looking good these next 3-4 days. I'm Keithy Joe from null by the way - nice to meet you :)

I regularly go to your site for severe weather forecasts, I find that you are quite often on the ball.

What do you think of the coming few days? Any favoured locations?

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Hi Liam, many parts are looking good these next 3-4 days. I'm Keithy Joe from null by the way - nice to meet you smile.png

Hi Keithy Joe, nice to meet you too smile.png not used null for ages, I do have an account. Well I'm just going to keep my fingers crossed for the end of this week. The risk is high over much of the country with slight variables day to day of exactly which locations are likely to be in the favoured place. Lot's to keep tabs on thats for sure good.gif

Liam

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield

Hi Liam, many parts are looking good these next 3-4 days. I'm Keithy Joe from null by the way - nice to meet you :)

Hey keithy, how are you?! didnt think id ever see you here! i can always rely on your forecast!

back to topic.. it is looking like a great week for connvective activity, lets hope for some nice storms!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds

I regularly go to your site for severe weather forecasts, I find that you are quite often on the ball.

What do you think of the coming few days? Any favoured locations?

Thanks Weather Dude. I have a vested interest in the forecast for the Bristol area in the coming days, as I have a BBQ planned on Satuday for my Grandads 80th birthday. Chances are, this encroaching low pressure system (vortex), that seems to be stubbornly persisting in on/off cycles for the past month or so will likely play a big part in our plans too. The low pressure anchored to the West of Ireland is forecast to retrogress ever so slightly East to be centred across Ireland tomorrow.

This added vorticity, lowering geopotential thickness, cooling uppers and the added bonus of a relatively modest warm air advection regime from the South - combined with diurnal heating will all work together in creating an ideal kinematic environment for thunderstorms to develop. Wednesday is the first interesting day as slab of cooler air tries to intrude from the West (in vicinity) of the encroaching and troublesome vortex.

Focus will be along the leading edge of higher theta-ew airmass just ahead of the undulating cold front boundary and of course within the proximity of the low circulation. It's essentially complex, but Wednesday promotes quite a plentiful risk of heavy showers - most likely becoming thunderstorms across Northern England, East Midlands, Lincolnshire and parts of Yorkshire and Cumbria. Note areas further North are forecast to have the strongest portion of the relatively weak jet-streak overlap with strongest vorticity lobes, thus more organisation will be possible in these areas and therefore spatially and temporally speaking a greater density of lightning strike possibilities. CEQ projections (GFS) are around an average of sub -30 in areas further East and North of the Midlands - but the odd heavy shower could well become electrified across the West Midlands, Wales and South West England late in the Morning on Wednesday. Slack cyclonic flow exists, so many showers becoming slow moving.

Updraught/Downdraught separation will be more likely in Northern/Eastern areas around the Northern periphery of the vortex across Northern England, thus showers spatially become more sparse across Southern England and Wales tomorrow. Friday is without a doubt a day that would favour a quite widespread initiation of pulse storms - energy propagating from one cell to another - peaking and back-building. I'll work hard these next few days to issue my thoughts on the coming days with regards to specifics. Deep and Shallow layer wind-shear looks on the whole, insignificant. So, organisation to anything more severe is inprobable.

That is not to say that convergence induced tornadoes will not be a possibility. I would say that many areas have a pretty good chance of seeing a heavy shower or storm (depending on storm mode/phasing) these next few days from Wednesday right through into Saturday. Of course, boundaries will tend to shift daily as the vortex shifts and wavers.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Thanks Weather Dude. I have a vested interest in the forecast for the Bristol area in the coming days, as I have a BBQ planned on Satuday for my Grandads 80th birthday. Chances are, this encroaching low pressure system (vortex), that seems to be stubbornly persisting in on/off cycles for the past month or so will likely play a big part in our plans too. The low pressure anchored to the West of Ireland is forecast to retrogress ever so slightly East to be centred across Ireland tomorrow.

This added vorticity, lowering geopotential thickness, cooling uppers and the added bonus of a relatively modest warm air advection regime from the South - combined with diurnal heating will all work together in creating an ideal kinematic environment for thunderstorms to develop. Wednesday is the first interesting day as slab of cooler air tries to intrude from the West (in vicinity) of the encroaching and troublesome vortex.

Focus will be along the leading edge of higher theta-ew airmass just ahead of the undulating cold front boundary and of course within the proximity of the low circulation. It's essentially complex, but Wednesday promotes quite a plentiful risk of heavy showers - most likely becoming thunderstorms across Northern England, East Midlands, Lincolnshire and parts of Yorkshire and Cumbria. Note areas further North are forecast to have the strongest portion of the relatively weak jet-streak overlap with strongest vorticity lobes, thus more organisation will be possible in these areas and therefore spatially and temporally speaking a greater density of lightning strike possibilities. CEQ projections (GFS) are around an average of sub -30 in areas further East and North of the Midlands - but the odd heavy shower could well become electrified across the West Midlands, Wales and South West England late in the Morning on Wednesday. Slack cyclonic flow exists, so many showers becoming slow moving.

Updraught/Downdraught separation will be more likely in Northern/Eastern areas around the Northern periphery of the vortex across Northern England, thus showers spatially become more sparse across Southern England and Wales tomorrow. Friday is without a doubt a day that would favour a quite widespread initiation of pulse storms - energy propagating from one cell to another - peaking and back-building. I'll work hard these next few days to issue my thoughts on the coming days with regards to specifics. Deep and Shallow layer wind-shear looks on the whole, insignificant. So, organisation to anything more severe is inprobable.

That is not to say that convergence induced tornadoes will not be a possibility. I would say that many areas have a pretty good chance of seeing a heavy shower or storm (depending on storm mode/phasing) these next few days from Wednesday right through into Saturday. Of course, boundaries will tend to shift daily as the vortex shifts and wavers.

Thanks for that mate. Very detailed but still easily understandable. Wednesday looks to be a more showery day rather than thundery. Thursday and Friday certainly interest me more though, with good instability across the West Country for "Thundery Showers" to develop quite widely.

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather.
  • Location: Grimsby

Just to check Ive done it right does the skew-t for Grimsby at 18:00 Wednesday show cloud tops reaching 42,000ft? If it right that would be good for hail and thunder.

Edited by mattyk1985
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Thursday and Friday look good for two different parts of the country

Thursday as a moderate risk for North East England and Southern Scotland

post-12721-0-67137600-1341332844_thumb.ppost-12721-0-99510000-1341332853_thumb.ppost-12721-0-25748000-1341332864_thumb.p

Then the risk tranfers to the South West, West Midlands & Wales for Friday

post-12721-0-11862100-1341332906_thumb.ppost-12721-0-47791700-1341332916_thumb.ppost-12721-0-08216900-1341332925_thumb.p

Then there is some scope for "Thundery Showers to develop to the East, East Midlands, East Anglia etc on Saturday, but as this is a little while away yet and scope for change, I will leave posting charts for this day currently.

( Although, of course, Thursday and Friday could still change too )

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Thursday and Friday look good for two different parts of the country

Thursday as a moderate risk for North East England and Southern Scotland

post-12721-0-67137600-1341332844_thumb.ppost-12721-0-99510000-1341332853_thumb.ppost-12721-0-25748000-1341332864_thumb.p

Then the risk tranfers to the South West, West Midlands & Wales for Friday

post-12721-0-11862100-1341332906_thumb.ppost-12721-0-47791700-1341332916_thumb.ppost-12721-0-08216900-1341332925_thumb.p

Then there is some scope for "Thundery Showers to develop to the East, East Midlands, East Anglia etc on Saturday, but as this is a little while away yet and scope for change, I will leave posting charts for this day currently.

( Although, of course, Thursday and Friday could still change too )

Can you explain friday a little bit? Looks like we got no CAPE or anything up here but rainfall looks excessive?

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather.
  • Location: Grimsby

Looking at the latest NMM there is plenty of MLcape across the Eastern side of UK Wednesday night into Thursday. So theres a chance things may rumble on into the night. Not sure there will be much in the way of a trigger though.

NMM is also suggesting excessive rainfall for parts of Lincolnshire and the North with around 50mm in places.

Edited by mattyk1985
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Can you explain friday a little bit? Looks like we got no CAPE or anything up here but rainfall looks excessive?

For your location, it look to be a day of heavy persistent rain rather than convective, hence no instability where you are.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Looking at the latest NMM there is plenty of MLcape across the Eastern side of UK Wednesday night into Thursday. So theres a chance things may rumble on into the night. Not sure there will be much in the way of a trigger though.

NMM is also suggesting excessive rainfall for parts of Lincolnshire and the North with around 50mm in places.

Slow moving cold front looks like its going to cause some trouble for northern areas

over the next few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

Looking forward to the end of the week now.....good.gif

just caught up from last week and heres a couple of time lapse videos from Sat afternoon,with some late convection finishing with a stunning sunset fom Friday

Edited by Arnie Pie
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Slow moving cold front looks like its going to cause some trouble for northern areas

over the next few days.

Would that be 'trouble' in a good way? Lol .... Nothing like last week will materialise, will it?! Even if we got something nearly half as severe as last Thursday that'd just be awesome. Oh god the suspense is gonna kill me! :p

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Leeds looking healthy for CAPE on this sounding for tomorrow..

post-7292-0-95039400-1341343713_thumb.pn

If anyone wants to decipher the rest please feel free!!

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

evening all .a fantastic forum tonight . i missed countless storms whilst in north amer and canada during late may and june ,always fantastic storms but a few miles away ,yet on the internet watching and reading net weather and british news it made me green with envy . its my 60th this thursday so i would like a repeat of last thursday action , flew into the uk on wed last, could see plenty of amazing moisture about but not a clue of what the sun on thursday would build up . keep the good information coming in, very informative ,but remember stay safe and what is heaven for us could be hell for others cheers legritter somerset .

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Would that be 'trouble' in a good way? Lol .... Nothing like last week will materialise, will it?! Even if we got something nearly half as severe as last Thursday that'd just be awesome. Oh god the suspense is gonna kill me! blum.gif

Trouble in a flooding kind of way!

Looking at the fax chart for friday,its not surprising the met office have an early warning out.

Met Office: UK: severe weather warnings

Need to invest in some new transport. laugh.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

Looking at the latest NMM precip charts, its showing storms moving up from France in southeastern area's tomorrow afternoon and evening. The NMM can sometimes be way off regarding precip but definitely something to watch for good.gif

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