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Stormy Wednesday 15th August 2012


AWD

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

I think I must be missing something as the MetO have hundreds of real experts working around the clock on stuff and they say for London and the SE:

Wednesday:

Dry and bright initially, but cloud will quickly increase and occasionally heavy rain will spread northeastwards. Through the afternoon and evening drier and brighter conditions will follow from the west. Maximum Temperature 24 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Thursday isolated showers and sunny spells, feeling warm. Thereafter cloudy with periods of rain, sometimes heavy, although Surrey, Sussex and especially Kent will miss the worst and become very warm.

Issued at: 0348 on Tue 14 Aug 2012

http://www.metoffice...st&locId=352409

So all I need is a brolley to go for a leisurely walk around the block tomorrow afternoon?

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I think I must be missing something as the MetO have hundreds of real experts working around the clock on stuff and they say for London and the SE:

http://www.metoffice...st&locId=352409

So all I need is a brolley to go for a leisurely walk around the block tomorrow afternoon?

Does make you wonder doesn't it! If that came off, then we would all look like egg faced fools in here! Lol.

I don't think it will be as straight forward as that though, but as ever, time will tell.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

I've sneaked a look at the HiRLAM charts and they are subtly different from the GFS ones later in the afternoon in the SE::

hir_prec_eur36.png

The rest of the UK still gets a lot of rain but the South East area misses out?

hir_prec_eur36.png

There's still a lot of weather going on though!!!

hir_icape_eur36.png

hir_layer_eur36.png

hir_stp_eur36.png

hir_stp_eur39.png

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

I've only had a quick look at charts but will look in more detail later. At present though, almost anything could hit Britain tomorrow and thursday except for snow. It will be interesting to watch the developments later today and it will be all eyes south and west. Certainly a very deep low for August with plenty of potential energy about. I will post a few more thoughts later when I've had a good look at all available data.

Cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

The NAE, whilst showing some heavy rain, doesn't show any abnormal totals, rather just giving us a wet, humid day.

post-12721-0-25950600-1344933995_thumb.gpost-12721-0-13331000-1344934001_thumb.gpost-12721-0-87663200-1344934009_thumb.g

post-12721-0-08141000-1344934016_thumb.gpost-12721-0-88858300-1344934021_thumb.gpost-12721-0-69783200-1344934028_thumb.g

post-12721-0-69822200-1344934038_thumb.g

The latest FAX chart advance the cold front through quicker than previous FAX charts, giving little of a "warm sector" between the warm front now.

post-12721-0-18742900-1344934121_thumb.p

I think thunderstorm potential was a lot greater a couple of days ago than what it is now. Whilst the charts Coast has posted above look good, i think we are going to struggle to get significant destabilisation of the airmass in front of the cold front before it sweeps through.

However tornadic activity still looks promising, with gales, funnels and a tornado or two likely. Very windy for Devon & Cornwall!

post-12721-0-03810300-1344934596_thumb.g

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

The NAE, whilst showing some heavy rain, doesn't show any abnormal totals, rather just giving us a wet, humd day.

NAE do seem to be out on their own with the smaller rain totals? Maybe the SE will miss out on the larger quantities but the rest of the country looks like it will be deluged and there is a lot of wind, shear and helicity up there which must give someone something of interest? I'm still holding out for pre-frontal convection early hours tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

There she grows anyway!

post-12721-0-41928400-1344934761_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: torpoint, cornwall
  • Location: torpoint, cornwall

ohhhh this looks good!! i live in on whitsand bay just by plymouth, do you think wea will get interesting weather???? i must say i love reading all these forums.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

ohhhh this looks good!! i live in on whitsand bay just by plymouth, do you think wea will get interesting weather???? i must say i love reading all these forums.

I wouldn't get your tent out, put it that way!

post-12721-0-13707500-1344935428_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

it is the national firework competition tonight and tomorrow night should i give this a miss then :-)

Not the best conditions no. You might get away with a dry evening, night tonight. Aside from a possible shower, it should be dry and relatively calm. Tomorrow night however could prove more tricky. It looks like being very windy, with gales possible in Plymouth, and althought the main band of PPN will have cleared the South West by then, a further, albeit smaller/lighter band of PPN comes in from Southern Ireland, which could dampen conditions.

Best keep tuned to your latest local media forecasts, as its an ever expanding situation currently!

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Posted
  • Location: torpoint, cornwall
  • Location: torpoint, cornwall

Not the best conditions no. You might get away with a dry evening, night tonight. Aside from a possible shower, it should be dry and relatively calm. Tomorrow night however could prove more tricky. It looks like being very windy, with gales possible in Plymouth, and althought the main band of PPN will have cleared the South West by then, a further, albeit smaller/lighter band of PPN comes in from Southern Ireland, which could dampen conditions.

Best keep tuned to your latest local media forecasts, as its an ever expanding situation currently!

yes it seems that way, but i must say the met office dont seem to making much of it at the moment is that because nobody is quite sure yet?

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

yes it seems that way, but i must say the met office dont seem to making much of it at the moment is that because nobody is quite sure yet?

They do have a Yellow Weather Warning in force.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_forecast_warnings.html

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Subscribers to the Netweather Extra radar will find a new option in there this morning - satellite overlays..

post-2-0-11149500-1344936946_thumb.png

http://www.netweathe...ion=radar;sess= (this will take subscribers to the V6 radar, non subscribers will be taken to the free radar)

Amazing stuff Paul and netweather, that is a brilliant addition. good.gif I am just not too sure about the colours though. sorry.gif The white topped clouds don't stand out that well to my eyes. Mind you, there isn't too much cloud over the UK today, unlike tomorrow. Bring on the storm. drinks.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Quite a difference in the Cape Values for noon Wednesday between the GFS & Hirlam

post-12721-0-33167300-1344937613_thumb.ppost-12721-0-03581800-1344937624_thumb.p

post-12721-0-78003000-1344937632_thumb.ppost-12721-0-94420600-1344937642_thumb.p

Looking through the afternoon and evening output, it suggests to me that the GFS is bringing the front in quicker than the Hirlam, which is about 6 hours behind the GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Amazing stuff Paul and netweather, that is a brilliant addition. good.gifI am just not too sure about the colours though. sorry.gif The white topped clouds don't stand out that well to my eyes. Mind you, there isn't too much cloud over the UK today, unlike tomorrow. Bring on the storm. drinks.gif

Mother nature might well throw a lot of stuff at us tomorrow, but I think even she might struggle to conjure up bright purple & yellow polka dot cloud tops on demand for you! laugh.png

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Amazing stuff Paul and netweather, that is a brilliant addition. good.gif I am just not too sure about the colours though. sorry.gif The white topped clouds don't stand out that well to my eyes. Mind you, there isn't too much cloud over the UK today, unlike tomorrow. Bring on the storm. drinks.gif

The colours are what they are I'm afraid - it's not data it's effectively a photo from space so there's no way to adjust :)

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Mother nature might well throw a lot of stuff at us tomorrow, but I think even she might struggle to conjure up bright purple & yellow polka dot cloud tops on demand for you! laugh.png

Come on AJ, you know what I mean. blum.gif I'm not talking about an itsy bitsy teeny weenie yellowpolka dot bikini type image pattern here, I meant how the map colours and its background contrast against the actual satellite image. tease.gif

Nevertheless, I am not belittling any of the fantastic work you guys are putting in behind the scenes. good.gif Please just send me multiple MCSs before the summer season is over, I don't ask for much.

The colours are what they are I'm afraid - it's not data it's effectively a photo from space so there's no way to adjust smile.png

Hopefully I'm explained myself a bit better now, sorry Paul. good.gif

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

Yup as its been mentioned it's the 16th National Fireworks Festival in Plymouth tonight and tomorrow. Tonight should be fine, but tomorrow night could be very very interesting. They set them off from Mount Batten Pier opposite the Hoe and to my knowledge, they've never yet cancelled a show (even when it was foggy and drizzly). But with gale force winds coming in???

http://www.thisisplymouth.co.uk/British-Fireworks-Championships-start-Plymouth/story-16704447-detail/story.html

Edited by philglossop
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Posted
  • Location: torpoint, cornwall
  • Location: torpoint, cornwall

Yup as its been mentioned it's the 16th National Fireworks Festival in Plymouth tonight and tomorrow. Tonight should be fine, but tomorrow night could be very very interesting. They set them off from Mount Batten Pier opposite the Hoe and to my knowledge, they've never yet cancelled a show (even when it was foggy and drizzly). But with gale force winds coming in???

http://www.thisisply...tail/story.html

hmmmm we will have to see!!! we watch them from maker and usually we are sat in a cloud!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

It looks like the GFS could be on its own in terms of the speed it brings the cold front ( PPN ) through on Wednesday. At 15z Weds the GFS has it a lot further north

post-12721-0-75523400-1344939969_thumb.ppost-12721-0-09095600-1344940179_thumb.g

Than other models do.

post-12721-0-47413600-1344939986_thumb.gpost-12721-0-99929400-1344939991_thumb.gpost-12721-0-59746700-1344939997_thumb.g

post-12721-0-85251400-1344940004_thumb.gpost-12721-0-24920700-1344940011_thumb.g

The speed & timing of the front will be the difference in how much warm ( high humidity ) air will get ahead of the cold front and how long the air has got to destabilise the cold front & air ahead of it, to create any thundery activity.

Still think there could be more twists and turns with this one yet!

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

Well I'm working both nights on the Hoe so we'll have to see. Hopefully it's be nice, but the gales could make it interesting!

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