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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 16th August 2012>

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

But they also show:

What have we got to do around here to get a half decent storm? - crazy topsy turvy World we live in........ sorry.gif

Yes, does look like capping and lack of upper support could be an issue for storms to develop - despite the high CAPE, though GFS precip charts may not pick up isolated storms that may develop as temperatures reach the low 30s on Sunday, which may break the cap locally.

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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted

Some showers now developing over Devon and parts of Somerset, it looks like a cell could move N East towards Bristol or just track to the west of us. Gone very dark to my S West but it could of course just break up.

Good potential still for rest of the week . drinks.gif

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted (edited)

Is this some early signs of a "trigger" being found?

post-12721-0-86395800-1345111445_thumb.ppost-12721-0-50542200-1345111456_thumb.p

Fair bit of PPN activity on there!

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

GFS 00z has made the expected eastward shift and pushes the ridiculous CAPE values back over the other side of the channel. It is only one run but I had concerns yesterday that this would be the eventual outcome. Having said this, i do not think the high CAPE would have been realised anyhow with a strong ridge sitting on top of the SE, preventing any storms from firing.

Still the chance of some storms developing along a SW to NE line from Bristol Channel through the Midlands into Lincolnshire on Saturday, slipping a little further south on Sunday. Yesterday, this line was forecast to be further north and would have affected my area. Still, if storms are still showing along this line by Saturday morning then I shall just have to take myself to them if they won't come to me smile.png

Back again :D

Not entirely sure that the CAPE values are 'ridiculous'...but certainly agree that there lacks any discernible trigger

ukcapeli.png

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

I guess it's just as Nick has pointed out, there is too much of a cap just at the times you want that CAPE to work for you and it inhibits those parcels of air rising to somewhere useful. It's really quite high in the Channel over the weekend:

post-6667-0-62725400-1345112522_thumb.pn

post-6667-0-23338600-1345112526_thumb.pn

gfs_lfc_eur60.png

sounding3.curr.1800lst.d2.png

http://en.wikipedia....tive_inhibition

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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted

Regarding my last post, that developing shower cell has certainly delivered here. at present its 12.10 and its pouring down, heavier than yesterday and at times torrential.

It lasted 15 min, but so far I can't detect any thundery activity but expecting some on its back edge. It's currently heading towards Bristol - enjoy. It also looks like tonights and tomorrows rain is already developing and could move North east quicker and slightly further East than forecast. Take a look at SAT /and radar down towards far South and South west.

cheers

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted (edited)

Regarding my last post, that developing shower cell has certainly delivered here. at present its 12.10 and its pouring down, heavier than yesterday and at times torrential.

It lasted 15 min, but so far I can't detect any thundery activity but expecting some on its back edge. It's currently heading towards Bristol - enjoy. It also looks like tonights and tomorrows rain is already developing and could move North east quicker and slightly further East than forecast. Take a look at SAT /and radar down towards far South and South west.

cheers

Yes, that shower has just hit me now. Heavy, blustery rain, gone really cool too.

EDIT - Torrential rain now

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

Also from that same shower I got 9.8mm, to say it was torrential is an understatement

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Also from that same shower I got 9.8mm, to say it was torrential is an understatement

What comes after torrential? Lol! sorry.gifsorry.gif

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Team Jo Accomplished

Team Jo

Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
Posted

What comes after torrential? Lol! sorry.gifsorry.gif

Biblical.....?

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

What comes after torrential? Lol! sorry.gifsorry.gif

Slightly apocalyptic rainfall

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Biblical.....?

.... Is my kind of rain!!!!

Been watching that shower for a while now. Begging !!! That it shifts a tad west and hits here.

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted (edited)

All of the above lol, no thunder or lightning though!

Edited by SteveB
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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Slightly apocalyptic rainfall

Lol, love it. You could just imagine Ian Fergusson presenting his evening forecast..........

"Showers will spread up from the south west through the morning, most regions will see some very Biblical showers developing into the afternoon, with some locally apocalyptic downpours"

Anyway, cell has passed through here now. Wasn't expecting such intense rainfall today though, came as a bit of a suprise that!

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Closing in.

PPN seems to be increasing now its away from the river...

post-182-0-31781500-1345118748_thumb.png

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Bah.. Think the "heavy" bits going east. lol

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Bit wet in Bristol today......

post-12721-0-17759000-1345120382_thumb.j

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Eye to the sky Enthusiast

Eye to the sky

Posted
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Clear and Frosty/Snow Showers
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5
Posted

Pretty lively showers passing through here atm,nothing electrical though.Feeling very muggy as well.

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Cloudwatcher Explorer

Cloudwatcher

Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
  • Location: Chester
Posted (edited)

post-7254-0-24520100-1345129553_thumb.jp

post-7254-0-43542400-1345129251_thumb.jp

Unbelievable. i'm here on holiday in Pitlochry, Scotland (an area famous for not having many storms) having come from Cheshire (and a 6 year member of the NSC). And since Ive been here we have had 2 storms in 2 days. Just had this nice little cell spring from nowhere, some thunder and a few CG. Sun shining now but poss some more on the way.

Shot on my cameraphone so quality aint great...!

Edited by Cloudwatcher
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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

Normally ahead of warm fronts there is a decrease in shower activity and the frontal rain starts as drizzle before gradually getting heavier.

That process seemed likely again today, however a heavy shower has popped up over Dorset and is heading through towards Wiltshire now

and it's almost right on the edge of the band of light warm front rain.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

This is how busy I have been today....

People have been talking about Fridays potential and ive been dismissing it as FI thinking its days away..

I just read the metoffice and daily mail sites saying we are in for a lot of rain.. And it just dawned on me...

ITS TOMORROW!

Where did the week go?

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Matt Hugo seems confident of thunderstorms developing to the south and east of the front at the weekend.

At work currently but will post in more detail later.

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Looking like we could see some thunderstorms on that front forming tomorrow evening across the midlands as that hot air collides against it? Anyone got any information to talk or post about this?

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