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Predicting Earthquakes?


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Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield

Hello there, ignore me if you dont belive people can forecast earthquakes but checkout this link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tw_SQcF_ufc&feature=youtube_gdata_player,

He correctly predicted the 7.7 on 14th august and is predicting the next majour quake on 22nd august. he uses the alignment of planets to predict the quakes and it is some very in depth stuff, also check out the other videos on his channel he also deals with weather and recons that we are starting to leave a wet period in the nothern hemesphire and enterring a dryer one, just in time for winter which he belives would cause winter to start ealier. dont shoot me down before it has or hasnt happened, do it after im just making a light hearted suggestion :)

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

I would say it's theoretically not too far-fetched to believe that planetary alignments can induce stress on plates, given Saturns's effects of Enceladus and Jupiter has on Io. The Sun's own influence stretches out further than the Oort beltas shown by the Voyager probe.

Wether the same 'other world'ly' gravitational influences occur here on Earth I can't say for sure, but studies have shown, and proven, that our own Moon has an effect on volcanic activity. So the possibility is always there.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I agree with SNOW_JOKE. Although there's nothing within the laws of celestial mechanics (I think?) that says that inter-planetary gravitational forces cannot influence events here on Earth, that's are far cry from us being able use said influences to predict earthquakes...My family readily recalls the times I successfully forecast rain, sometimes hours in advance, at the age of two! What they, more readily, forget are the myriad times my predictions came to nothing!

I suspect that this is what we're seeing here?

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Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield

Yes i understand rybris, but he does seem fairly accurate, obviously he wouldnt want to stick his neck out to far because he could get punished (probably why he dosent estimate the strength of quakes) have you checked out some of the other videos on his page?

thanks for the replies, just like to get other peoples views on this :-)

Edited by Staffordshire
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Yes i understand rybris, but he does seem fairly accurate, obviously he wouldnt want to stick his neck out to far because he could get punished (probably why he dosent estimate the strength of quakes) have you checked out some of the other videos on his page?

thanks for the replies, just like to get other peoples views on this :-)

You're welcome, mate; I'll keep my ears to the ground too...Just one question though: does he document the times when he gets it wrong?

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Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield

You're welcome, mate; I'll keep my ears to the ground too...Just one question though: does he document the times when he gets it wrong?

cheers, and im not to sure pal but when i get some spare time perhaps tommorow, im going to look through when he has predicted quakes and check whether or not any have actually occured!
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

cheers, and im not to sure pal but when i get some spare time perhaps tommorow, im going to look through when he has predicted quakes and check whether or not any have actually occured!

Cheers mate!good.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Hes seems to think there will be a notable earthquake around 23rd/24th of august, (1/2 days time) and maybe in ecuador, however not entierly sure... check out this link!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAtiikaXG00&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Thanks, Staff!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

But what we must all be aware of is that, earthquakes occur (in earthquake zones) on an almost daily basis anyway? Does anyone know what the annual rate is for the Pacific Rim?

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

It is estimated that there are 500,000 detectable earthquakes in the world each year. 100,000 of those can be felt, and 100 of them cause damage.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/facts.php

About 90%[2] of the world's earthquakes and 81%[3] of the world's largest earthquakes occur along the Ring of Fire

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Ring_of_Fire

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It is estimated that there are 500,000 detectable earthquakes in the world each year. 100,000 of those can be felt, and 100 of them cause damage.

http://earthquake.us...learn/facts.php

About 90%[2] of the world's earthquakes and 81%[3] of the world's largest earthquakes occur along the Ring of Fire

http://en.wikipedia....ic_Ring_of_Fire

Thanks for that, John...good.gif

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

no problem rb

would you want that job?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14991654

for what its worth i am in the camp that science is not yet there

in understanding all the causes.

planets a full moon solar flares and even weather may all have an effect

understanding it is a different matter.

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Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield

Hey guys, yes there are many quakes a day, but i think he is suggesting something bigger than average, maybe a volcano even, i dont know its his work and i understand very little just putting it on here incase anyone wants a quick look :), oh and i know alot of you may think its a load of rubbish but have you heard of the theory of a mega tsunami caused by the side of las palmas volcano causing a landslide into the sea? just wondering!

Edited by Staffordshire
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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

hi staffordshire

as science does not really understand earthquakes properly

i would not say anything the guy does is rubbish

all i would say is it is very hard to predict and it is like

predicting long range weather

you know europe will be cold during winter but trying to predict when

it will snow is difficult and a certain amount of guesswork is needed

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Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

Geological forces on geological timescales. Days, months or even years are of scant importance. The Moon and Sun do have a bearing on Earth's tides and it's not too big a stretch to conclude they may also have some effect on earthquakes due to distortion of the mantle. Statistically the case is far from proven. All the other planets, comets, planetoids don't amount to a pinprick on an elephant as far as gravity is concerned.

One confident prediction I will make is that there will always be charlatans and soothsayers predicting 'quakes, catastrophies and 'the end of the world is nigh!' with no real data or justification. Some are amusing - the rest are rubbish

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