Christmas Weather Forecast

[johnholmes]

a lot of fun to some of you but as a scientific exercise about as much use as a chocolate fireguard I'm afraid.

I did a DAILY check using CFS basic and ensemble when they became available for over twelve weeks maybe 16 weeks last year.

Never again!

[Stuart]

Christmas 2012: Possibly cold

Forecast - Third update

This latest update remains makes no change to the prospects of a White Christmas, suggesting a slightly higher than average chance of a White Christmas across all of the country, but that means the most likely outcome is for it to be green. There are signs of northern blocking developing during the autumn months according to some long range forecasting models, and if that turns out to be correct then expect subsequent forecasts to increase the chances of snow on December 25th. The September weather patterns are starting to become clearer, and one factor to look for in the next few weeks is whether anticyclonic conditions tend to be dominant.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I suspect a lot of people would like to see this type of forecast for Christmas

When was that? looks snowless for me as a wishbone effect northerly

[Rollo]

Here we go again ,I must say I like John Holmes reference to a chocolate fireguard but every year we go through the will it wont it sm

now ritual and statisticly it is unlikely but snowfall on "The day" has great charm and I for one hope it happens this year and for that matter every year.

[Coast]

We still will be wondering on December 24th again!

[johnholmes]

When was that?

I give up with some of you

did u

you read what the tv shot actually shows?

Edited September 18, 2012 by johnholmes

[Megan Enticknap]

i'm gonna keep my fingers crossed in hope that it snows this winter, like really heavy! everyone loves a white christmas

[Cloud 10]

When was that? looks snowless for me as a wishbone effect northerly

I wouldn't be complaining.

[Weather-history]

This was the first Christmas I saw snow falling, 1993. It didn't stick but it was sure a novelty at the time seeing snow falling on Christmas Day!

[Summer Sun]

The weather outlook have updated there White Christmas forecast

Christmas 2012: Possibly cold

Forecast - Third update

This latest update remains makes no change to the prospects of a White Christmas, suggesting a slightly higher than average chance of a White Christmas across all of the country, but that means the most likely outcome is for it to be green. There are signs of northern blocking developing during the autumn months according to some long range forecasting models, and if that turns out to be correct then expect subsequent forecasts to increase the chances of snow on December 25th. The September weather patterns are starting to become clearer, and one factor to look for in the next few weeks is whether anticyclonic conditions tend to be dominant.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Weather-history]

Christmas Day 1996

[Stuart]

Christmas 2012: Snow chance increased

Forecast - Fourth update

This latest update increases the chance of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions. It now suggests a higher than average chance of a White Christmas across all of the country. There are continued signs of northern blocking developing during the autumn months according to some long range forecasting models, and if that turns out to be correct then expect subsequent forecasts to increase the chances of snow on December 25th. Cyclonic conditions have developed across the country in late September, and TWO seasonal forecasts consider this to be a more favourable pattern for colder weather in the winter months.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 35%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 30%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

Update 4, 26/09/2012

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[TAFKAP]

Does anyone have any records for which years of the past 100 London has had (1) a 'met office white Christmas' ie a single flake falling on a weather station and (2) Lying snow giving a 'proper' white Christmas feel to Christmas day? Would be a fascinating read. Apologies for the IMBY perspective in advance.

Edited September 27, 2012 by jbuffett1980

[Stuart]

Christmas 2012: Snow chance increased

Forecast - Fifth update

This latest update makes no change to the chance of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions. It now suggests a higher than average chance of a White Christmas across all of the country. There are continued signs of northern blocking developing during the autumn months according to some long range forecasting models, and if that turns out to be correct then expect subsequent forecasts to increase the chances of snow on December 25th. Cyclonic conditions have developed across the country in late September, and TWO seasonal forecasts consider this to be a more favourable pattern for colder weather in the winter months.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 35%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 30%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

Update 4, 26/09/2012

Update 5, 30/09/2012

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[WhiteXmas]

I can safely say there will be no snow on Xmas day 2012 as the world ends on the 21st

[Weather-history]

Not had a festive gale for sometime. The Christmas Eve 1997 storm was a humdinger

The Boxing Day storm of 1998 was a bad one in the north. Not had a really wet Christmas Day around this area for sometime

[Stuart]

Christmas 2012: Snow chance steady

Forecast - Sixth update

Into October and the latest update makes no change to the chance of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions. It now suggests a higher than average chance of a White Christmas across all of the country. There are continued signs of northern blocking developing during the autumn months according to some long range forecasting models, and if that turns out to be correct then expect subsequent forecasts to increase the chances of snow on December 25th.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 35%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 30%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

Update 4, 26/09/2012

Update 5, 30/09/2012

Update 6, 07/10/2012

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Stuart]

bit of bad news

Christmas 2012: Snow risk reduced

Forecast - Seventh update

Well into October and the latest update reduces the chance of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions, bringing the probabilities back close to average. The medium range weather patterns look as though they could develop in a slightly different way than had looked likely at the time of the last update, and this could be favourable to colder weather after Xmas rather than before or on December 25th.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

Update 4, 26/09/2012

Update 5, 30/09/2012

Update 6, 07/10/2012

Update 7, 14/10/2012

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Gavin Hannah]

I will be waiting until the 24th of Dec before I call this one lol.

[Weather-history]

A young John Hammond here

[Bristawl Si]

bit of bad news

Christmas 2012: Snow risk reduced

Forecast - Seventh update

Well into October and the latest update reduces the chance of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions, bringing the probabilities back close to average. The medium range weather patterns look as though they could develop in a slightly different way than had looked likely at the time of the last update, and this could be favourable to colder weather after Xmas rather than before or on December 25th.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

Update 4, 26/09/2012

Update 5, 30/09/2012

Update 6, 07/10/2012

Update 7, 14/10/2012

http://www.theweathe...eather-forecast

Like anyone can predict the weather for a specific day 2 months in advance.

[Stuart]

Christmas 2012: Average snow chance

Forecast - Eight update

As we approach the end of October and the first colder spell of the season, the latest update makes no change to the chance of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions, keeping the probabilities back close to average. There's currently a massive amount of uncertainty about how the weather patterns will develop as we head into November and, therefore, December. So if you're dreaming of a White Christmas keep your fingers crossed!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

Update 4, 26/09/2012

Update 5, 30/09/2012

Update 6, 07/10/2012

Update 7, 14/10/2012

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Summer Sun]

Christmas 2012: Could be white!

Forecast - Ninth update

As we approach the beginning of November the latest update increases the chance of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions to above average. There have continued to be signs of northern blocking persisting in the medium term, and this increases the chance of colder than average conditions in the UK. Although there's a lot of uncertainty about how the weather will develop as we head through November and into December, there are signs of it being more favourable for cold weather than is often the case. So if you're dreaming of a White Christmas keep your fingers crossed!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 30%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

Update 4, 26/09/2012

Update 5, 30/09/2012

Update 6, 07/10/2012

Update 7, 14/10/2012

Update 8, 21/10/2012

Update 9, 28/10/2012

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Summer Sun]

Christmas 2012: Could be white!

Forecast - Tenth update

Into November and the latest update keeps an above average chance of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions. There have continued to be signs of northern blocking persisting in the medium term, and this increases the chance of colder than average conditions in the UK. Although there's a lot of uncertainty about how the weather will develop as we head through November and into December, there are signs of it being more favourable for cold weather than is often the case. So if you're dreaming of a White Christmas keep your fingers crossed!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 30%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

Update 4, 26/09/2012

Update 5, 30/09/2012

Update 6, 07/10/2012

Update 7, 14/10/2012

Update 8, 21/10/2012

Update 9, 28/10/2012

Update 10, 04/11/2012

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Stuart]

Gavin can you let me do this

Thanks