Christmas Weather Forecast

[Paul]

The Santa Shaker is back

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

Great to see it back paul:)

[Summer Sun]

The Santa Shaker is back

http://www.netweathe...tion=xmas;sess=

30% chance of snow for me same % chance as Scotland and Northern Ireland

Edited November 4, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

30% chance of snow for me same % chance as Scotland and Northern Ireland

welcome back santa

[Stuart]

Christmas 2012: Green more likely

Forecast - Eleventh update

The latest update slightly reduces the chances of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions. During the last week there have been more signs of a milder westerly flow developing in the next few weeks. However, there is a huge amount of uncertainty and still some signs of a more blocked and colder set up returning later as we head into December. So if you're dreaming of a White Christmas keep your fingers crossed!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

Update 4, 26/09/2012

Update 5, 30/09/2012

Update 6, 07/10/2012

Update 7, 14/10/2012

Update 8, 21/10/2012

Update 9, 28/10/2012

Update 10, 04/11/2012

Update 11, 10/11/2012

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Paul]

Latest Xmas forecast is now online and the Santa Shaker is ready for action

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

[crimsonp]

Latest Xmas forecast is now online and the Santa Shaker is ready for action

http://www.netweathe...tion=xmas;sess=

the santa shaker..... the highlight of my week!! (i need to get a life :/)

[Gavin P]

I've just started started releasing my first CFS based Christmas Forecast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/events.html

Will update regularly (not daily, but regularly) so keep an eye on this page.

I don't have a "Santa" Shaker" but I do have "snow"

[Stuart]

Great Round up Gavin yes i think the trend is there for a cold xmas

[Gavin P]

Great Round up Gavin yes i think the trend is there for a cold xmas

Thanks Stuart.

Would be remarkable to get another cold Christmas after 2009 and 2010 (though it was very mild in 2011)

Edited November 14, 2012 by Gavin P

[Stuart]

Uncertainy continues

Forecast - Twelfth welth update

The latest update makes no change to the chances of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions. There continues to be a huge amount of uncertainty about how the weather will develop in the coming weeks. One possibility is that we'll see colder conditions during the early part of December, but these could breakdown with an Atlantic flow returning for a time. So if you're dreaming of a White Christmas keep your fingers crossed!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

Update 4, 26/09/2012

Update 5, 30/09/2012

Update 6, 07/10/2012

Update 7, 14/10/2012

Update 8, 21/10/2012

Update 9, 28/10/2012

Update 10, 04/11/2012

Update 11, 10/11/2012

Update 12, 18/11/2012

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Paul]

Latest Christmas forecast now online, complete with 'The holidays are coming..' and of course the Santa Shaker

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

Increasing chance of cold

Forecast - Thirteenth update

The latest update makes increases the chances of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions. There continues to be a huge amount of uncertainty about how the weather will develop in the coming weeks, but there does seem to be an on-going signal for cold air to become established across much of western Europe. If this happens colder conditions may well occur several times across the UK during December, bringing an increased risk of snow. So if you're dreaming of a White Christmas this year things are looking relatively promising compared to an average year, but that doesn't mean snow is the most likely outcome.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 30%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

Update 4, 26/09/2012

Update 5, 30/09/2012

Update 6, 07/10/2012

Update 7, 14/10/2012

Update 8, 21/10/2012

Update 9, 28/10/2012

Update 10, 04/11/2012

Update 11, 10/11/2012

Update 12, 18/11/2012

Update 13, 25/11/2012

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Paul]

Latest Christmas forecast now online

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

[Paul]

Latest update now online

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

Chance held steady

Forecast - Update 14

The latest update makes no change to the chances of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions. The TWO winter forecast suggests cold conditions breaking down during the second half of December, but there continues to be a lot of uncertainty about this. There is a lot of cold air to the north and east of the UK, and a risk of it backing west bringing colder conditions across the UK at times during December So if you're dreaming of a White Christmas this year there's still a lot of interest, but that doesn't mean snow is the most likely outcome.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 30%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

Update 4, 26/09/2012

Update 5, 30/09/2012

Update 6, 07/10/2012

Update 7, 14/10/2012

Update 8, 21/10/2012

Update 9, 28/10/2012

Update 10, 04/11/2012

Update 11, 10/11/2012

Update 12, 18/11/2012

Update 13, 25/11/2012

Update 14, 02/12/2012

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Coast]

December weather brings snow to the north – but it's unlikely to last

Snow in Scotland proves boon for skiers while cold weather hits transport across UK

The chances of a white Christmas remain distinctly iffy for England and Wales with this week's snow proving cautious about venturing very far south of the Scottish border. Fells in northern England are likely to keep their shallow mantle of snow for a while, but crisp, sunny weather is expected to fend off the weak fronts of cloud, rain and sleet trying halfheartedly to reach the Midlands.

The Met Office sees little respite from very cold temperatures over the next three weeks, forecasting "rather cold, unsettled conditions with wintry showers and an increasing likelihood of overnight frosts". There should be mild interludes, but none for very long. The Scottish snow has brought an encouraging start to the winter sport season with more than 1,600 skiers and snowboarders in action at Cairngorm ski centre on its opening day and another 800 clanking up the funicular railway to the UK's highest Christmas market. Santas and elves have sold local crafts and seasonal gifts to more than 7,000 trippers since mid-November and Cairngorm's marketing manager, Colin Kirkwood, has boasted of "a great buzz of excitement".

More than 2,000 season passes for skiing have been bought and Cairngorm is expecting to reach a total of 67,000 ski days by the end of April – well up on last year. A slow start to the 2011/12 season last December saw 1,000 fewer people use the slopes on the opening day, which is always the first weekend of the month. The arrival of cold weather brought the usual transport problems with accidents on icy roads and some train delays. The worst of the latter, however, was blamed on vandalism, with congestion at London's Blackfriars station expected to last until 5pm on Tuesday. First Capital Connect and Southeastern trains have been affected over a wide area because of damage to signalling equipment.

Rail problems persist in south-west England in the aftermath of last week's floods, with signalling problems at Crewkerne in Somerset delaying trains between Exeter and Yeovil by up to an hour. A landslip caused by heavy rain near Dorking in Surrey is still disrupting trains, with a bus service expected to run until the weekend.

The wildly varying weather has caused oddities in the natural world, including the flowering of a Cistus, a summer plant that favours hot and dry conditions, at the Lost Gardens of Heligan in Cornwall. Bird migration monitors meanwhile report a record count of whooper swans at Martin Mere in Lancashire. The large and striking birds summer in Iceland and winter in the UK, with 2,480 arriving at the weekend compared with the previous highest total of 2,100 in 2010.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/dec/04/december-weather-snow-scotland-skiing

[Cloud 10]

Christmas day is now in reach of GFS fi,and what a chart it has produced!

Snow for many if that came off.

[Stuart]

White Xmas less likely

Forecast - Update 15

The latest update reduces the chance of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions. The TWO winter forecast suggests cold conditions breaking down during the second half of December, and that now looks to be increasingly likely. There is a lot of cold air to the north and east of the UK but it looks as though milder weather from the west will have the upper hand during the second half of December. There is still plenty of time for change, but at the moment a White Christmas doesn't look too likely, except perhaps over high ground in then north.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

Update 4, 26/09/2012

Update 5, 30/09/2012

Update 6, 07/10/2012

Update 7, 14/10/2012

Update 8, 21/10/2012

Update 9, 28/10/2012

Update 10, 04/11/2012

Update 11, 10/11/2012

Update 12, 18/11/2012

Update 13, 25/11/2012

Update 14, 02/12/2012

Update 15, 09/12/2012

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Paul]

Latest forecast now up, getting toward crunch time......

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

[damianslaw]

There is alot of weather to get through between now and christmas, and whilst the medium outlook i.e. next weekend now no longers favours cold conditions, there are a number of building blocks in place which are conducive to cold weather quickly returning in time for christmas. We can only properly start speculating what is likely to happen on the 25th around the 18th-19th at the earliest, and not with any great certainty until about the 21st.

I do love a cold christmas period, if we get snow it is a bonus. Last christmas was unseasonably mild and not to my liking one bit. I also like the run up to christmas to be cold, if only we could flip what is likely to happen next week the other way round, with the wet windy stuff reserved for the start and the cold block for the end. One of my favourite christmas weather wise was 1995, a real bone chiller for the north, we saw a bit of snow on the 20th then a shortlived milder spell before the cold arrived with avengence on the 24th. 1996 was a good christmas for cold frosty weather. Indeed we've done preety well in recent years for cold conditions, since 2004 which was a white christmas in these parts, we've only experienced two what I would call mild christmas days 2007 and 2011. Admittedly 2006 wasn't particularly cold and the mild stuff returned on the 27th. 2008 was average but then we saw cold end to the month, incidentally this december is reminding me of 2008, which saw a cold first half followed by a mild spell before a cold last week. If I had to have a cold run up to christmas or a cold last week of December after a mild spell I'd take the latter, nothing worse than a cold spell giving way to mild weather by christmas a real kick in the teeth, with this in mind I remain hopeful for cold weather this christmas after what will hopefully be a shortlived milder and wet spell from next weekend.

[Coast]

2012 White Christmas Betting, Free bets and White Christmas odds comparison from UK bookmakers

William Hill have shortened the odds of the lowest temperature ever recorded in England (-26.1C) being beaten this winter, from 18/1 to 16/1 after the weekend cold snap encouraged a flurry of bets to be placed. With just over a month to ,Hills have already taken six four-figure bets on the chances of a White Christmas, and are facing a payout of over £100,000. Snow in London on December 25 has been cut from 6/1 to 9/2, with snow in Aberdeen and Glasgow offered at 4/1 and Cardiff best priced at 6/1.

"Along with the temperature, punters are plunging on our weather related bets. If this winter is as cold as predicted it could easily be our worst weather result ever, eclipsing even our current meteorological record payout, when temperatures hit 100 degrees in 2003 costing us a six figure sum", said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

White Christmas betting Rules: 'That one flake of snow will fall on Met office monitoring stations over the 24 hr period of the 25th of December'.

William Hill White Christmas Betting: 4/1 Aberdeen, 4/1 Glasgow, 9/2 London, 6/1 Cardiff.

16/1 that the lowest recorded temperature in England will be beaten (-26.1C, Jan 10 1982, Shropshire).

16/1 that the lowest temperature in Scotland will be beaten (-27.2C, Jan 10th 1982, Aberdeenshire).

22/1 for the record in Wales to be beaten (-23.3C, 21st Jan, 1940 Powys).

100/1 that the Thames will freeze over between Westminster Bridge and Tower Bridge.

100/1 Big Ben Fails to chime due to being frozen solid.

http://www.mybetting...mas-betting.htm

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/snow/white-christmas

Edited December 12, 2012 by Coast

[Paul]

The Christmas skin is now available on the forum - time to get the decorations up

[Weather-history]

Not had a really wet Christmas Day for sometime around here. Could argue that we are due for a wet Christmas Day, at least around this area.

Infact, the last time Manchester airport recorded more than 10mm of rain for the day was 1990

Edited December 13, 2012 by Weather-history

[The PIT]

There's as much chance of a white xmas as Sheffield United scoring in a play off final. In 430 minutes they haven't scored yet so you can see how remote the chances of a white xmas there is. Deep FI does show brief attempt at an northerly so that would be a mionions cross over the bar.