Christmas Weather Forecast

[Paul]

Latest Xmas forecast update online

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

[damianslaw]

Not had a really wet Christmas Day for sometime around here. Could argue that we are due for a wet Christmas Day, at least around this area.

Infact, the last time Manchester airport recorded more than 10mm of rain for the day was 1990

I'm surprised Manchester didn't see much rain in 1997, 1998 and 1999, all wet christmas days here from memory. Since 1990 we've seen a real mix of christmas day weather after a long run of very mild atlantic driven christmas days with south west winds from 1982 to 1990, my memories from childhood in the 80's is certainly not one of cold christmas days, far from it...

1991 and 1992 delivered settled dry conditions thanks to high pressure, 1991 average temps, 1992 was cold and frosty.

1993 brought a cold northerly blast with some snow.

1994 was a mild affair though not particularly wet.

1995 and 1996 - very cold and dry.

1997-1999 three wet very windy ones on the trot, 97 brought power cuts to these regions..

2000 and 2001 - cold and frosty and dry

2002 - I think was just very mild cloudy and dry

2003 - mild and showery

2004 - cold snowy northerly

2005 and 2006 were chilly and dry

2007 and 2008 dry

2009 and 2010 very cold mostly dry

2011 - very mild and cloudy and dry

So yes perhaps we are overdue a wet one this year, personally I'd rather have a wet mild christmas day, than a dry cloudy mild one or even worse a dry sunny mild one - doesn't feel right. Of course I'd prefer a cold one, but if it has to be mild at least let it rain as well... but the wind can stay away..

This is not a prediction.

[Stuart]

Green likely for most

Forecast - Update 16

The latest makes no change to the chance of a White Christmas in both northern and southern regions. The TWO winter forecast suggests cold conditions breaking down during the second half of December, and that has now happened. However, there remains a lot of cold air to the north and east of the UK, and although it looks as though milder weather from the west will have the upper hand during the second half of December there is still uncertainty. So at the moment a White Christmas doesn't look too likely, except perhaps over high ground in then north, but there is still time for change.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2012

Update 2, 09/09/2012

Update 3, 17/09/2012

Update 4, 26/09/2012

Update 5, 30/09/2012

Update 6, 07/10/2012

Update 7, 14/10/2012

Update 8, 21/10/2012

Update 9, 28/10/2012

Update 10, 04/11/2012

Update 11, 10/11/2012

Update 12, 18/11/2012

Update 13, 25/11/2012

Update 14, 02/12/2012

Update 15, 09/12/2012

Update 16, 14/12/2012

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74323-christmas-weather-forecast/page__st__60

[Coast]

After a miserable week of wind and rain, can we dream of a white Christmas?

• Odds of a white Christmas are cut to 4/1 in London and 2/1 in Edinburgh
  
• Hailstones the 'size of pound coins' have already fallen in Penzance, Cornwall
  
• Heavy December rain has already claimed victims, with one dead and others rescued by services
  

As shivering Christmas shoppers battled driving rain, icy winds and hailstones bigger than pound coins yesterday, their festive cheer was probably diminishing. They might have perked up, however, had they known the odds of it being a white Christmas have been slashed from 6/1 to 4/1 in London and from 5/2 to 2/1 in Edinburgh. With such unsettled weather and temperatures falling as low as -12C (10F), it's not difficult to understand why.

The Met Office added that the unsettled weather would continue for the next two weeks. They said the conditions are too unpredictable for there to be any clear indication as to whether snow would fall on Christmas Day. But Jessica Bridge from Ladbrokes said: 'We could be facing one of the biggest ever white Christmas payouts in history.'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2248954/After-miserable-week-wind-rain-dream-white-Christmas.html#ixzz2FIOSUvbV

[Coast]

People may be dreaming of a white Christmas but it is more likely to be a wet one, forecasters have warned. Hopes of snow have been dashed as Britain looks set to be warmer and wetter over the festive period. Only hills in the north and Scotland have any chance of snow, MeteoGroup claimed. Bookmakers will breathe a sigh of relief after record amounts of cash were staked on a white Christmas.

‘It’s mild and wet now and it looks unsettled with showers and spells of rain all the way into January, with low pressure much of the time,’ said Met Office forecaster George Goodfellow. ‘There’s no signal for a colder spell in the Christmas period. Temperatures are expected to average – and snow is rare in the south in late December.’

Britons also faces a soaking this week – with floods and winds of up to 50mph set to hit parts of the country on Wednesday. ‘Ground is saturated and we’re keeping an eye on the flood risk,’ Mr Goodfellow added. Temperatures will hit a balmy 12C (54F) in the south and 9C (48F) in Scotland. The Environment Agency had six flood warnings and 89 alerts in place on Sunday.

http://metro.co.uk/2012/12/16/it-will-be-wet-not-white-at-christmas-as-storms-arrive-3318650/

[Coast]

Looks like the bookies are going with a green Christmas too, oh well, there's always next year

http://sports.willia...s+Day+2012.html

[damianslaw]

I'll give my thoughts tomorrow more generally on the day itself, but I must say the odds are now against a white christmas away from perhaps the far NE and higher ground in the north. The question is whether it is going to be particularly mild, or just average and will it be a wet or dry one.. hard to say but it doesn't look like being a sunny one, so at least this factor will make it feel a bit more seasonal, rather an overcast mild christmas day than a bright sunny mild one.

However, it doesn't look like we will see the anomalously mild conditions we saw last year.

I can't help but wish I was back in 2009 and 2010, when a cold christmas day even at this range was 'in the bag'..

This December is reminding me so much of Dec 2008... in terms of feel and currently we are in a slightly milder 'blip', pity it has come during the run up to christmas, but I feel the cold will be back with avegence not long after christmas.. good things come to those who wait, its better not to have all your christmas presents at once.

[Coast]

Britain's Christmas weather forecast: it's rain, dear

UK left to dream of a wet Christmas as hopes of snow wash away in stream of flood warnings

Traditional British joys such as leaking felt roofs and muddy footprints on the freshly-vacuumed carpet look likely this Christmas, as dreams of a white wonderland turn soggy.

Rain sweeping up the country has brought a new stream of flood warnings on the heels of over-optimism about snow on Christmas Day, which melted as transatlantic mild fronts sent last week's chilly weather packing.

The second most serious type of weather warning – amber for "be prepared" – has been issued for parts of Cornwall and Devon as heavy rain tracks across and up towards the Midlands, where the next level – yellow for "be alert" – is in place and extending up to Yorkshire by Thursday. Fresh warnings are in place for the weekend when a second band of very wet weather moves in over Land's End and follows the same north-easterly course in the countdown to Christmas. The Meteorological Office forecast for the first holiday week warns: "Very unsettled and windy, with occasionally heavy rain pushing north-eastwards."

"Further locally heavy rain is likely from midweek, separated by drier but showery interludes, with the best drier weather likely to be in the east. Strong to gale-force winds are also likely in places, but especially in the north-west. Temperatures will be mostly near or perhaps a little above normal, although patchy overnight frost remains likely, a pattern that should continue in the runup to the new year, with similarly unsettled conditions likely to prevail."

Reindeer weather may come to hilly areas, however, with rainfall on Christmas Eve possibly turning into snow on high ground and the clouds clearing on Christmas Day to give dry and bright conditions. These could persist on Boxing Day, giving seasonal conditions to the traditional, if no longer so lethal, principal hunting day of the year.

The Weather Channel predicts rainfall of between 20 and 40mm during the 36 hours ending at midnight on Thursday, but sweetens the pill with forecasts of temperatures as mild as 13C in the Midlands and southern England by Sunday afternoon. The Environment Agency has 37 flood alerts in place and four warnings, overwhelmingly in the south-west which has three warnings on the Somerset Levels and 24 alerts. The only other warning is on the river Nene at Whittlesey Wash near Peterborough, while the Midlands has five alerts, largely in Shropshire, and the south-east seven, including traditionally vulnerable valleys along the Thames and Cherwell in Oxfordshire.

Forecaster John Lee of Meteogroup said: "We have a succession of Atlantic systems coming to the UK. Does that mean seven days of rain? No, but it is going to be mild and unsettled until Christmas. It is not uncommon for this time of year, so I think most people should expect a few showers."

Gamblers have shifted with the weather, with the shortest odds bookies can remember on rainfall on Christmas Day – 1-7 in London, 1-8 in Glasgow and 1-10 in Manchester, the northern capital of rain. Aberdeen retains the shortest odds on snow at 3-1, with London at 5-1 and Cardiff 6-1. Simon Clare of Coral said: "Bets have been pouring in for a wet Christmas all day but we have hardly taken a penny on a white one. If the odds are to be believed then it will be umbrellas and not sledges that will be needed on Christmas Day."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/dec/19/britain-christmas-weather-forecast-rain

[Summer Sun]

Yes its looking very likely now the UK will see a green and wet Christmas only the high ground in northern regions and obviously the Scottish mountains have a chance of snow next Tuesday

The weather outlook have called a Green Christmas for most

Edited December 19, 2012 by Gavin.

[The PIT]

Mild and could be wet. A snow free December coming up.

[damianslaw]

With christmas day now moving into the reliable timeframe and given I'll be away from the computer now until eve on the 23rd, I will give my christmas forecast as a whole for the 3 days 24th-26th, but may revise these on the 23rd if there is a significant shift in conditions -unlikely though..

Christmas Eve - generally mild for the whole country, with temps in the south possibly hitting 10-11 degrees with showery rain in places more so southwestern parts, further north, cooler with temps 7-9 degrees and further heavy outbreaks of rain especially western parts in a strong gusty SW wind. A preety unseasonal feel it has to be said. Overnight slowly becoming drier from the west with the atlantic fronts moving eastwards into the N Sea, clearer breaks in some places and possible misty foggy patches. A mild night generally except in any clearer breaks where temps could get down to about 2-3 degrees, but hardly cold.

Christmas Day - a cooler day for all especially the north as we see polar maritime air move into Scotland, N Ireland and N England meaning any precipitation on higher ground is likely to be wintry with some decent snowfall on higher mountains in a gusty cold NW/W wind. It looks a showery day for many away from the far SE and E, here some decent sunny spells could occur, indeed outside of the showers in the north some good sunny spells could occur. Overnight, chance of some of the showers in the north turning wintry on lower ground.. you never know a few lucky people in Scotland may see at least one or two snowflakes before the day is out. A patchy frost in the north with ice risk, chilly in the south but not cold enough for any frost probably.

Boxing Day- less certain, but it looks like we will maintain the cool showery conditions under a chilly NW airflow. Again showers in the north will be wintry and possibly down to quite low levels meaning lots more snow for the scottish mountains and the the hills of N England and probably N Wales. Further south and east drier with some decent sunny spells. Temps north 3-6 degrees, south 6-8 degrees, preety average for the time of year.

So there it is I forecast a green christmas, but it doesn't look like a particularly mild one especially in the north with temps preety much near average, though christmas eve does look quite mild for many. Chance of a snowflake or two later christmas day for some lower parts in Scotland, increased risk of snow for Boxing Day in the north. Anyone looking for snow wouldn't do too bad visiting the scottish ski resorts next week, and the higher ground of the north. The charts remind me alot of Dec 99 which saw a blast of polar maritime air during the christmas week and decent snowfalls on higher ground in the north. The odds of a mild fest like last year now look very slim - thank goodness.. but its a far cry from the likes of 09 and 10 - we really were spoilt then..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes its looking very likely now the UK will see a green and wet Christmas only the high ground in northern regions and obviously the Scottish mountains have a chance of snow next Tuesday

The weather outlook have called a Green Christmas for most

Green Xmas for fields, but for roads and paths? would be great to see green snow falling

[Coast]

Flood Fears Rise Ahead Of A Soggy Christmas

Successive bands of heavy rain are set to hit Britain, falling on ground already saturated from last month's flooding.

Flooding is set to hit Britain as successive bands of heavy rain move across the country ahead of a damp Christmas. Most of England, Wales and Scotland is expected to be wet today with heavy rain in some places. Snow is also likely over the Scottish mountains, especially on southeast-facing slopes of the Grampians where blizzard conditions are possible.

The Environment Agency (EA) said large swathes of southern and southwestern England, southeast Wales and the Midlands are potentially under threat today, with flood warnings likely in parts of the South West, the South East and East Anglia. Some 25mm to 35mm fell overnight in parts of the South West. Sky News weather presenter Isabel Lang said: "Although it will ease during the day in the South West, there will be persistent rain elsewhere." "Amounts of rain will vary but a further 25 to 50mm is forecast today which will continue to raise flooding concerns. "Driving conditions will also be difficult in places with standing water and localised flooding already reported."

Although Friday will largely be dry in the South West, the next band of rain is set to move in by the evening and brings renewed flood risks. Lang said: "The next band coming through is very moist and warm air. There is the potential for major disruption." "After a white Christmas in 2010 and an unseasonably warm 2011, we may have a wet 2012 Christmas." Areas of England and Wales were last month engulfed by flood water that surged through streets and down roads. Rivers burst their banks and fields were flooded as several days' rain fell in just a few hours.

EA flood risk manager Craig Woolhouse said: "Our teams are out around the clock to minimise the risks and prepare for flooding, clearing drainage channels and ensuring that flood defences are working properly. People have been advised to check their route for disruption before travelling, and not to drive or walk through floodwater. The EA now offers a free flood warning service on its website. Mr Woolhouse said: "We urge people to keep up to date with the weather forecast and local news overnight and remain prepared for flooding in their area by signing up to receive free flood warnings and staying away from dangerous flood water."

http://news.sky.com/story/1027957/flood-fears-rise-ahead-of-a-soggy-christmas

[Paul]

Michael Fish looks ahead to Xmas in his weekly forecast - Father Christmas even makes an appearance too

[Paul]

The final Xmas forecast update for 2012:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

Merry Christmas

[virtualsphere]

Better hang on to those polystyrene flakes left in the box after the gifts are wrapped if you want a white Christmas this year