Atlantic Storms - Autumn 2012

[johnholmes]

My worry is that the models are not coming up with a solution yet. And a concern for what could turn up.

I'm interested in this, could it be to do with the sea surface temperatures in that zone?

Whatever it is its surprising as the initial data, be it upper air temperatures, dewpoints, winds etc are there as in any other instance, likewise sea temperatures. It has caused NOAA all kinds of problems throughout its existence as well with their forecasts changing rather more than is usual when they are tracking and predicting these things movement. So Nadine may be a one off in that sense but it is a fact that systems approaching from a S'ly point do seem to cause problems almost every time they occur. I no longer have any folk I know in forecasting at Exeter so cannot e mail 'inside' so to speak to ask questions. Very interesting as to just what the problem is though.

[Coast]

NOAA's GOES satellite captured Tropical Storm Nadine in the eastern Atlantic, another low pressure area forming in the central Atlantic, and a developing low in the eastern Pacific. NASA's TRMM satellite noticed that the storms around Nadine's center were waning.

On Sept. 21 at 7:45 a.m. EDT, NOAA's GOES-13 satellite captured an image of Tropical Storm Nadine in the eastern Atlantic, and a developing low in the central Atlantic. Nadine is south of the frontal boundary draped across the Azores islands. NOAA's GOES-13 satellite sits in a fixed orbit over the eastern U.S. and captures continuous visible and infrared imagery of the eastern U.S. and the Atlantic Ocean. The image was created by NASA's GOES Project, located at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite flew over Tropical Storm Nadine twice on Sept. 21. The first TRMM overpass happened at 0822 UTC (4:22 a.m. EDT) and the second at 1001 UTC (6:01 a.m. EDT). TRMM can see rainfall occurring within a tropical cyclone and noticed that Tropical Storm Nadine's center of circulation has cleared of convection (rising air that forms thunderstorms) and thunderstorms since TRMM passed overhead on Sept. 20. TRMM data on Sept. 21 showed convective rainfall near Nadine's center of circulation had ended and bands of light to moderate rainfall were wrapping around Nadine's southern side. TRMM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japanese Space Agency, and imagery is created at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

At 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) on Friday, Sept. 21, 2012 Tropical Storm Nadine had maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph (95 kph). The center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 34.1 north and longitude 27.5 west, about 270 miles (435 km) south of the Azores islands. Nadine is moving toward the south near 10 mph (17 kmh) and is expected to turn toward the southeast followed by a turn east over the weekend of Sept. 22 and 23. Although there is little change expected in Nadine's intensity over the next day or two, the storm could become post-tropical. Forecasters noted that dry air has moved into the center of Nadine's circulation, sapping the energy in the thunderstorms. In addition, sea surface temperatures are hovering near the 26.6 Celsius (80 degree Fahrenheit) threshold needed to keep a tropical cyclone alive.

http://www.scienceco...ping_lows-98851

[knocker]

Not a huge difference in the latet OCP forecasts. To be on the safe side I've advised my friend to pack her wellies.

[Paul]

Quick animation of the forecast track of child of Nadine, along with the rainfall as of this morning's GFS

[Sainsbo]

Well, this could be interesting. Netweathers "Will it Rain" has my town down for 95mm of Rain for Sunday - Wednedsay. Looks like this will be a wet one!

And some of the towns further to the SW look like they could have up to 150mm. Can see some problems arising if thie pays off.

Edited September 22, 2012 by Sainsbo

[Paul]

Dedicated thread for 'child of Nadine' now open

[Liam J]

A deep depression tracking close to Iceland overnight is going to send some fairly lively conditions towards the UK later on tonight and Into Sunday, the cold front associated with the low is already into Western Scotland and Northern Ireland, producing heavy rainfall atm. A period of strong to gale force winds developing towards western coasts overnight with gusts around 50mph or so, might wake a few folk up during the small hours.Of more concern is the likelihood of further heavy rainfall in areas that really don't need it! The ground is absolutely saturated.

Current rainfall and air pressure

Gale force winds in the west, especially the Irish Sea

NMM rainfall totals by Sunday evening, 50-60mm over NW England, grim picture.

Edited September 29, 2012 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

Heavy rain at the moment here and wind gusting to just over 30mph.

Edited September 29, 2012 by weathermaster

[itsnowjoke]

Raining here and feeling cool

[Liam J]

Very nasty morning here, it's breezy yes but not as windy as it was looking to be on last nights model runs. the biggest worry is the amount of rainfall overnight which continues to fall heavily. Just made my journey to Keswick for work - streams of water are just running out across the main roads from fields which now look like mini lakes, the River Derwent near Cockermouth has risen significantly since yesterday and is now running level with the top of the river banks, I expect levels will continue to rise this morning causing some flooding issues.

Many of the rivers are on flood alert although if conditions continue like this then I'm sure warnings will be upgraded. http://www.environme...oods/31618.aspx

Edited September 30, 2012 by Liam J

[itsnowjoke]

Is it true that we are going to have artic conditions some time next week?

[gottolovethisweather]

Is it true that we are going to have artic conditions some time next week?

At the start of October? Yes, it may well get colder and maybe there will be some white stuff on the very tops of the Scottish mountains, but nothing more.

Edited September 30, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[ZONE 51]

Had a sinus op(nose), got some catching up to do.. The BBC weather at the weekend said some squally winds on tuesday night with thunder crossing all areas, but on monday they didn't mention it? sounds interesting and they showed a tight bend in the isobars, i'm sure i will read about it soon if it's still on!

[ZONE 51]

Recent Infrared satellite of Atlantic

[Team Jo]

First few drops of what I'm expecting to be a very wet night! The TV signal in my bedroom has all gone to pot, which is usually indicative of anything wet and windy incoming.

Radar-wise looks (for now) that we'll get widespread persistent rain here, but the really heavy/Convective stuff looks like it's centred around the NW and Wales at the moment.

Stay safe everyone!

[ZONE 51]

Whipped up a map on where we can expect the heavy rainfall and gales 5th October(today)

Please note this map goes upto midnight but the heavy rains would likely affect the same areas on saturday to as another rainstorm heads in friday evening.

The gales would be strongest near and on the south coast tonight into the morning but inland areas could get quite a battering from this system to. 40-50mph inland southern England 60-70mph coastal gusts are possible, the strongests and highest rainfall towards Southwest England.

[cyclonic happiness]

Ok am I imagining things or has Nadine got caught in the jet stream , bombed and is now heading straight for the UK?!

It looks very scary all of a sudden.

Please tell me what you think!?

www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_IR.html

[Zenarcher]

Ok am I imagining things or has Nadine got caught in the jet stream , bombed and is now heading straight for the UK?!

It looks very scary all of a sudden.

Please tell me what you think!?

www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_IR.html

No Nadine is being caught up with the low pressure system in the Atlantic. The fax chart analyse from a few hours ago show Nadine to be where models have predicted her to be.

Although if you read Daily Mail weather forecast rubbish they believe she is getting stronger where in reality she has already dissipated.

The UK will experience a bit of Nadine though as she does send some heavy rain and gusty winds for Southern parts of England on Friday.

Edited October 5, 2012 by weathermaster

[ZONE 51]

Ok am I imagining things or has Nadine got caught in the jet stream , bombed and is now heading straight for the UK?!

It looks very scary all of a sudden.

Please tell me what you think!?

www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_IR.html

I can understand your concern, there is lots of energy and moisture down there, this is an unusual situation and it produces tonnes of rainfall that can fire into the same areas for days, certain things need to come together at the right time to develop a severe wind storm, i've not read anything about such development.

[cyclonic happiness]

When I was talking about Nadine , I meant the little spin off low to other low to its east.

That is clearly strengthening.

Nadine is just a big blob of flabby , dying low , but 'daughter' storm has really blown up.

It may be where it's modeled to be 'but it's not changed course as yet?

As I said , I may be imagining things.

By the way , I don't succumb to mass hysteria the tabloids peddle .

And.....I'm looking at the satellite image of the current situation , I haven't been reading anything about it.

[Dorsetbred]

SO far no big rainfall from this, 10.8mm so far with the main area moved east and remaining showers, I think this will fall well short of predictions in the amount of rainfall expected.

Nice squall line over us at the moment

Edited October 5, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[AWD]

SO far no big rainfall from this, 10.8mm so far with the main area moved east and remaining showers, I think this will fall well short of predictions in the amount of rainfall expected.

Nice squall line over us at the moment

Ian Fergusson mentioned 10mm - 20mm widely across the West Country, locally more. So what you received isn't that far off what was forecast.

I think it's the fact that there is the rain currently, another spell of heavy rain tomorrow night & another spell of heavy rain Sunday night bringing a combined total in excess of 50mm quite widely that was the concern, causing localised flooding by Sunday.

[gottolovethisweather]

I thought this might be of interest, in spite of part one having passed, it did not leave without a signature.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2378013

Part two incoming for some, overnight Friday into Saturday and most probably, part three come late evening Sunday into Monday.

Edited October 5, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[ZONE 51]

By the way , I don't succumb to mass hysteria the tabloids peddle .

And.....I'm looking at the satellite image of the current situation , I haven't been reading anything about it.

I saw on the satellite just what you are on about, it has been known for things to spring up within a few hours, so always good to keep checking, and as i said, it's an unusual situation and can develop a lot of interest, although there is not signs of a wind storm but lots of rainfall it still could happen over the next week at some point, i'm watching closely, and reading a great forum, so if it's going to happen they will let people know about it!

[ZONE 51]

For those that want to see where the rain is i have provided two screen images of the radar, these images are lower quality then the actual image.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Visit the MetOffice site on the above link.

I have included the northern extent of the heavy rain, the images are both at 0000hrs.

Edited October 5, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm