C/2012 S1 (ison) Could Be The Brightest Comet Ever Seen By Mankind

[Gray-Wolf]

I think it is behind the sun at present and so we're not getting a good look at it until it's much closer?

 

The corona and tail from this image are not 'ice' sublimating but gasses coming off the body. Apparently it is only when it's beyond Mars orbit that we will have a chance to see how it might preform in Nov/Dec as there is enough heat to start to melt off the ice and form the tail we will see?

 

I do hope it's all that it is being talked up into and that the Jan 12th ( and week after) meeting with it's tail is also a remarkable event!

[joggs]

Yes i must admit im looking forward to this and hope it doesnt disappoint.Even if its as good as hayle-bopp and Hyakutake i'll be made up.Something to show explain to kids.

[Gray-Wolf]

It is the 'Sun dive' part of it all that has me most worried! I'm sure if it survives it will turn out to be a once in a lifetime show as its head is blasted by such a close pass around our Sun.

 Maybe it will turn into something even better than is currently being touted ( maybe folk are being a tad conservative with their estimates due to past 'flops'???) and become the defining Comet of the millenium?

[joggs]

Truly hope your right GW, will be an amazing sight on them cold,frosty winter night,Unless we get stuck in a cold dull easterly for weeks n end lol.

[Crepuscular Ray]

News release from NASA:

 

RELEASE 13-229

NASA'S Spitzer Observes Gas Emission From Comet Ison

WASHINGTON -- Astronomers using NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope have observed what most likely are strong carbon dioxide emissions from Comet ISON ahead of its anticipated pass through the inner solar system later this year.

Images captured June 13 with Spitzer's Infrared Array Camera indicate carbon dioxide is slowly and steadily "fizzing" away from the so-called "soda-pop comet," along with dust, in a tail about 186,400 miles long.

"We estimate ISON is emitting about 2.2 million pounds of what is most likely carbon dioxide gas and about 120 million pounds of dust every day," said Carey Lisse, leader of NASA's Comet ISON Observation Campaign and a senior research scientist at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Md. "Previous observations made by NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the Swift Gamma-Ray Burst Mission and Deep Impact spacecraft gave us only upper limits for any gas emission from ISON. Thanks to Spitzer, we now know for sure the comet's distant activity has been powered by gas."

Comet ISON was about 312 million miles from the sun, 3.35 times farther than Earth, when the observations were made.

"These fabulous observations of ISON are unique and set the stage for more observations and discoveries to follow as part of a comprehensive NASA campaign to observe the comet," said James L. Green, NASA's director of planetary science in Washington. "ISON is very exciting. We believe that data collected from this comet can help explain how and when the solar system first formed."

Comet ISON (officially known as C/2012 S1) is less than 3 miles in diameter, about the size of a small mountain, and weighs between 7 billion and 7 trillion pounds. Because the comet is still very far away, its true size and density have not been determined accurately. Like all comets, ISON is a dirty snowball made up of dust and frozen gases such as water, ammonia, methane and carbon dioxide. These are some of the fundamental building blocks which, scientists believe, led to the formation of the planets 4.5 billion years ago.

Comet ISON is believed to be inbound on its first passage from the distant Oort Cloud, a roughly spherical collection of comets and comet-like structures that exists in a space between one-tenth light-year and 1 light-year from the sun. The comet will pass within 724,000 miles of the sun on Nov. 28.

It is warming up gradually as it gets closer to the sun. In the process, different gases are heating up to the point of evaporation, revealing themselves to instruments in space and on the ground. Carbon dioxide is thought to be the gas that powers emission for most comets between the orbits of Saturn and the asteroids.

The comet was discovered Sept. 21, roughly between Jupiter and Saturn, by Vitali Nevski and Artyom Novichonok at the International Scientific Optical Network (ISON) near Kislovodsk, Russia. This counts as an early detection of a comet, and the strong carbon dioxide emissions may have made the detection possible.

"This observation gives us a good picture of part of the composition of ISON, and, by extension, of the proto-planetary disk from which the planets were formed," said Lisse. "Much of the carbon in the comet appears to be locked up in carbon dioxide ice. We will know even more in late July and August, when the comet begins to warm up near the water-ice line outside of the orbit of Mars, and we can detect the most abundant frozen gas, which is water, as it boils away from the comet."

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, Calif., manages the Spitzer Space Telescope mission for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. Science operations are conducted at the Spitzer Science Center at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) in Pasadena. Data are archived at the Infrared Science Archive housed at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center at Caltech. Caltech manages JPL for NASA.

[Staffordshire]

Getting closer now, i am excited about this

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

Rumors of Comet ISON ‘Fizzling’ May be Greatly Exaggerated

Read more: http://www.universetoday.com/103832/rumors-of-comet-ison-fizzling-may-be-greatly-exaggerated/#ixzz2abfC46LA

[Gray-Wolf]

Sounds like folk backing away from something very quickly?

 

I'm sure it was a NASA article that had it as a 'comet of a lifetime' or have I just been reading Media reports?

[skidders]

I'n sure none of the scientific sources every quoted it as a 'comet of a lifetime', just that it had the potential to be so. I can remember back in the 70s when Kahoutek was expected to be the 'comet of the century' too!

 

"Before its close approach, Kohoutek was hyped by the media as the "comet of the century". However, Kohoutek's display was considered a let-down,possibly due to partial disintegration when the comet closely approached the sun prior to its Earth flyby. Since this was probably the comet's first visit to the inner Solar System, it would have still contained large amounts of frozen volatiles since its creation. Although it failed to brighten to levels expected, it was still a naked-eye object. Its greatest visual magnitude was -3, when it was at perihelion, 0.14 AU (21,000,000 km; 13,000,000 mi) from the Sun"

[Polar Maritime]

Sounds like folk backing away from something very quickly?

 

I'm sure it was a NASA article that had it as a 'comet of a lifetime' or have I just been reading Media reports?

  Comet ISON lives on! (we think...)

 

 

Well this is rather exciting news: Comet ISON lives on! (we think...) 

For several weeks now, ground-based observers have been blind to Comet ISON as our local star was sitting directly between us and the comet. We knew this was a temporary problem, and we expected that by the end of August, ground-based observers would begin to detect Comet ISON, so long as it hadn't fizzled out during that time. So now I am delighted to share two pieces of good news: first, that ISON is still alive and well, and secondly that it has been recovered a couple of weeks earlier than I would have expected! 

Bruce Gary, http://www.brucegary.net/ISON/

Is this what we think it is?!In the center white square, that fuzzy shape could well be Comet ISON!

The above image was recorded by amateur astronomer Bruce Gary using his 11-inch telescope at Hereford Arizona Observatory, and shows what appears to be a comet, situated exactly where Comet ISON is currently predicted to be! Yes, the comet looks faint in this image, but it was only a few degrees above the horizon when this image was recorded, and the images are being somewhat washed out by twilight. It's actually a remarkable feat to have imaged ISON this close to the Sun, and Bruce is to be applauded for that! It should be noted that these images are awaiting confirmation, and indeed Bruce himself states very clearly: "[a] final claim that this is Comet ISON should be based on another clear morning's observations showing the expected motion". This is a critical point: while this certainly looks like a comet, does it move the way we would expect it to be moving? If it does, then that's another valuable piece of evidence that we are indeed looking at what we hope it is.

If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...

 

 

 

More here..http://www.planetary.org/blogs/guest-blogs/2013/08131117-comet-ison-lives-on-we-think.html

 

 

Edited August 14, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Weather-history]

http://www.cometison2013.co.uk/

http://www.cometison2013.co.uk/perihelion-and-distance/

Only 12 weeks to go to perihelion

[laserguy]

The second ^^^^ link is great! Be watching this everyday....

[mike Meehan]

Now it's a bloody comet which is gonna do for the ice, after all these years of being told by the AGW crazees that it was CO2.  Hope it succeeds where that failed cos' I'm fed up of waiting.

 

**Edit**. There might be something in the omen-of-ill stuff.... Hale Bopp appeared at the same time we moved house in Feb' '97. I remember us watching it for ages one particularly clear night. That marked the start of a disastrous 11-year period where everything went wrong in one way or another but especially regarding health and finances and culminated in us losing the damn house. Think I'll give Comet Ison a wide berth.

They have a good side though - the boffins tell us that they were responsible for a good part of the water on our planet, so without them we probably would not be here.

[laserguy]

They have a good side though - the boffins tell us that they were responsible for a good part of the water on our planet, so without them we probably would not be here.

 

Ye I've heard that but don't buy it for a minute. Can't see trillions of tons of water being delivered by these things (imagine how many 'average'-sized comets it would take to form the Pacific???)  but even if it were so, how would water survive the heat of entry? Are they sayin' it turned to vapour and came down as rain or summat? Nah, it's cobblers.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the 'great bombardment' is what folk are on about L.G.! Seeing as the whole planet is the agglomeration of space debris why should the latter phase of that process be so surprising?

 

As for 'Omens'??? Lets see what happens when we pass through it's tail over the week following Jan 12th before we comment eh?

Edited September 14, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Bobby]

Ye I've heard that but don't buy it for a minute. Can't see trillions of tons of water being delivered by these things (imagine how many 'average'-sized comets it would take to form the Pacific???)  but even if it were so, how would water survive the heat of entry? Are they sayin' it turned to vapour and came down as rain or summat? Nah, it's cobblers.

 

There were a lot more comets and asteroids back then so the theory goes and the atmosphere would have been much thinner than it is today, so no burning up on entry, but I don't know if the idea that comets brought most of our water is true.

[Evening thunder]

Ye I've heard that but don't buy it for a minute. Can't see trillions of tons of water being delivered by these things (imagine how many 'average'-sized comets it would take to form the Pacific???)  but even if it were so, how would water survive the heat of entry? Are they sayin' it turned to vapour and came down as rain or summat? Nah, it's cobblers.

 

Lol so my brain is better than the entirety of scientific knowledge/thinking, therefore it's all clobbers. Sounds familiar.. 

[Polarlow]

Not sure of its validity, but this video claims to be the latest  pic of Ison !!!!

 

 

Looks like what the anceints  have been showing us with their drawings over the years !

[Gray-Wolf]

Well that's odd?

 

I started a topic here to discuss the possible impacts of our passing through ISON's tail from Jan 12th next year.

 

For those who do not know we are set to pass through the tail of ison over the week after Jan 12th 2014. The odd side of it is that the whole planet will be impacted by the debris due to the tail following the comet sun-wards and portions being driven from the sun by the solar wind.

 

Possible impacts were brought to my attention by a NASA release predicting Bright noctilucent clouds produced when the 'comet dust' from the tail acts as condensation nuclei for moisture in the stratosphere over that week.

 

Seeing as ISON  is a first time visitor to the inner solar system I had to question how NASA knew that it would only be 'dust' we encountered as we passed through the tail and not the kind of debris we encounter when we pass through the tail remnants of other 'regular' comets that bring us our years portions of meteor showers.

 

I had to further question NASA's apparent confidence of the 'make-up' of the tail fragments when we were told that ISON's brightness had faded and that ISON might be a dud ( not carrying a lot of ice to produce a bright tail) and not the 'comet of the century/millennia.

 

So ? what should we expect? 

 

When we enter other tail remnants they are generally years old (yet still can produce meteor showers of thousands per hour?) and so well dispersed but this will be a tail stream a matter of a couple of months old.

 

Should NASA prove correct and we face a number of months of noctilucent clouds will this have climate implications (reflect incoming solar back into space)?

 

Should we encounter a more typical debris field then do we face the most spectacular meteor shower in modern history?

 

What if the 'first timer' is rapidly crumbling as it approaches the sun? Could we face a bombardment of fragments capable of impacting?

 

i will certainly be open to observations from our 'near earth objects' programme after the comet has passed earth orbit in October to see if we get any hint of the debris field the comet is leaving in it's wake prior to our contact from Jan 12th onward!

[laserguy]

Lol so my brain is better than the entirety of scientific knowledge/thinking, therefore it's all clobbers. Sounds familiar.. 

 

As my considered assessment of 'AGW' looks increasingly correct ( ie it's cobblers ) as the years and decades drag by, I may well be correct about this too - though who cares anyway as it is nothing but a scientific curio and has no bearing on anything to come. Even GW has just acknowledged the forthcoming opportunity to find something else to pin the lack of warming on; ie reduded solar input due to passing through the debris cloud! Neat. But that belongs in the arena where I am not allowed. Looking forward to ISON although I will not gaze at it as intently as I did Hale-Bopp, lest it take umbrage at that and punish me accordingly... 

[Gray-Wolf]

Well Just did more 'checking' and one source has a better take on things by having us not pass directly through the tail debris! Because of the lack of time to 'spread out' this would mean less chance of any 'contact' with the debris field.

 

I suppose it shows that we are still refining our data on this first time visitor?

 

And that I am also 'updating' my understandings as more data comes to the fore!

 

I'm wondering what the Oct 1st Mars flyby will bring us? The cameras on the planet , and in orbit, are all set to take a peek.

[UV-RAY]

As my considered assessment of 'AGW' looks increasingly correct ( ie it's cobblers ) as the years and decades drag by, I may well be correct about this too - though who cares anyway as it is nothing but a scientific curio and has no bearing on anything to come. Even GW has just acknowledged the forthcoming opportunity to find something else to pin the lack of warming on; ie reduded solar input due to passing through the debris cloud! Neat. But that belongs in the arena where I am not allowed. Looking forward to ISON although I will not gaze at it as intently as I did Hale-Bopp, lest it take umbrage at that and punish me accordingly... 

Lol, so do you think proponents of AGW will be using this as some sort of excuse for the apparent lack of apocalyptic warming.

 

On a more serious note, any comet which passes by is of interest.

[laserguy]

Lol, so do you think proponents of AGW will be using this as some sort of excuse for the apparent lack of apocalyptic warming.

 

 

 

Whatever it takes...gotta keep that hidden 'AGW' pot simmering.

[laserguy]

Lol so my brain is better than the entirety of scientific knowledge/thinking, therefore it's all clobbers. Sounds familiar.. 

 

Ye - you're on the right lines there.