Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[chionomaniac]

Mixed news with the stratosphere today.

The bad news is that the first mauve has appeared on the 10 hPa forecast as the stratosphere cools in the mid layers.

This will lead to the upper stratosphere vortex gaining in strength during this month.

However, I am not expecting anything other at this point and it is not up and over the top of the building vortex where I think we should be concentrating. Instead I think we should be focusing on the disturbed tropospheric pattern creating local wave breaking into the stratosphere from below the vortex.

And today there are the first signs that this is occurring. The following two images are the temperature profiles from lower down the stratosphere at 70 hPa. In the forecast here we see the possibilities of a warming from below:

Today:

T+240

We saw something similar in late Autumn 2010 that prevented the strengthening upper polar stratospheric vortex from dictating matters until later in the winter:

Worth watching over the coming days....

Edited October 11, 2012 by chionomaniac

[MR EXTREMES]

You say Aug 2010 and then vortex was disrupted winter !

But surely all this strat activity is a little to late.

[liam79]

Hi Badboy657 iam a complete newbie but if i remeber correctly winter 2010-2011 saw the cold begin mid-late november and end at the end of december. So if you use the same for this year it would be end of december to enf january, which is even better

[chionomaniac]

You say Aug 2010 and then vortex was disrupted winter !

But surely all this strat activity is a little to late.

Oops look again!

[MR EXTREMES]

Oops in a planner sorry..yes I agree good sign.

Sorry using mobile please delete and my mistake Autumn not Aug.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Indeed, this is something worth watching. If RJS early thoughts are right then some rapid cooling may occur scuppering early winter....I say this as it seems likely that cold strat will prevent northern blocking and RJS thinks cold to arrive backend of winter, but i think it was winter 09 that showed decent wintry weather could still be had ?

So here we go......eyes will be down for sure

BFTP

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

An interesting read for those of us that are still learning about this area of our weather

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

Edited October 11, 2012 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[UV-RAY]

Indeed, this is something worth watching. If RJS early thoughts are right then some rapid cooling may occur scuppering early winter....I say this as it seems likely that cold strat will prevent northern blocking and RJS thinks cold to arrive backend of winter, but i think it was winter 09 that showed decent wintry weather could still be had ?

So here we go......eyes will be down for sure

BFTP

I pray to god he's wrong this time Blast, after last winters late surge being a letdown in this neck of the woods, I wouldn't like to hang my hopes on another.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I pray to god he's wrong this time Blast, after last winters late surge being a letdown in this neck of the woods, I wouldn't like to hang my hopes on another.

Its the UK......we were so near to incredible cold.....for that I marked him high as the set up was there. I rate RJS theory v highly hence I take his early views very seriously as his theory doesn't tend to alter in 'overall' pattern, just detail might adjust. But nothing is infallible and I also take C and GP etc very seriously too.....all to play for

BFTP

Edited October 11, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[UV-RAY]

Its the UK......we were so near to incredible cold.....for that I marked him high as the set up was there. I rate RJS theory v highly hence I take his early views very seriously as his theory doesn't tend to alter in 'overall' pattern, just detail might adjust. But nothing is infallible and I also take C and GP etc very seriously too.....all to play for

BFTP

I put RJS up there with GP and C and yes both he and GP were very close in their forecast last winter. I've just got that awful feeling that come December the PV will be limpet like over Greenland again, and we all know how difficult it is to shift once established.

[Glacier Point]

Southern hemisphere polar stratosphere at 30mb has reached a record high temperature whilst the tropical stratosphere plunges..

This may have a knock on effect for the Northern Hemisphere, allowing for greater penetration of surface fluxes poleward and upward.

Just for fun, tonights 12z GFS comes up with an interesting 10mb temperature profile.

At t168, cooling

At t360, slight displacement going on, and look at the warming around Asia.

Still early days, but if the ensemble means are right, a stonking big tropospheric ridge around and in the Arctic must intuitively set in train a stratospheric response.

[UV-RAY]

How does warming in the SH interact with the NH GP?

[Glacier Point]

Think of the tropics and poles as like a see-saw. Warming in one is usually mirrored by cooling in the other. We are at the time of year where we shouldn't be able to directly benefit from a strong warming in the SH, however, there's plenty of good research out there that links the NH - SH profiles through the upper level meridional circulation, but usually the NH interfering with the SH signal.

[bluearmy]

If gefs is right then one would hope that the ukmo strat model will be in agreement. We would need to monitor the twice weekly ECM 32 day output and the daily 30 day met office forecasts to see if they begin to differ. This has happened on a coupe of occasions over the past few winters where Exeter began to fly the possibility of colder conditions with no obvious support from the ECM 32 day forecast.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

To confirm....RJS thinks cold late...nowt to do with stratos forecast......just my thoughts that if RJS is right let's see if stratos suddenly gets cold

BFTP

[chionomaniac]

An interesting read for those of us that are still learning about this area of our weather

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

And another jumps aboard!

I remember the first strat thread in 2008/2009 when I felt like I was banging my head on a brick wall with suggesting that the split SSW was responsible for the early Feb 2009 easterly.

Oh how things have changed since the met office are on board!

[bluearmy]

And another jumps aboard!

I remember the first strat thread in 2008/2009 when I felt like I was banging my head on a brick wall with suggesting that the split SSW was responsible for the early Feb 2009 easterly.

Oh how things have changed since the met office are on board!

you try convincing the 'dinosaurs' over on TWO! i remember you popped in a couple of times but the loudest voices over there are quite cynical about any new ways of thinking.

[chionomaniac]

you try convincing the 'dinosaurs' over on TWO! i remember you popped in a couple of times but the loudest voices over there are quite cynical about any new ways of thinking.

I think that they are coming round.

Looking at Brian Gaze's early winter thoughts - it would help if he mentioned the strat more - I don't even think that he even mentions the QBO phase. There is so much research nowadays ( and a lot more needed I hasten to add ), that I find it very difficult to take long / medium range forecasts seriously that do not give enough weighting to the stratosphere. (My thoughts - not that of netweather!)

[Suburban Streamer]

Totally agree about people jumping on the bandwagon. Hardly anyone was mentioning it a few years ago but now certain people are acting like they have always been stratosphere experts, and they think we don't notice!

Sorry off topic

Edited October 11, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[MattH]

Totally agree about people jumping on the bandwagon. Hardly anyone was mentioning it a few years ago but now certain people are acting like they have always been stratosphere experts, and they think we don't notice!

Sorry off topic

I don't think this is the case at all. I think it is a case of as something new develops and becomes more exposed due to individuals like Chionomaniac, of whom I have a lot of respect in terms of knowledge in this field, then others want to find out more, particularly from a scientists point of view. That is how many people learn, it gets some exposure, in this instance on an internet forum and also from actual published journals/articles and people then begin to take notice and want to learn about this 'new' and credible subject.

As a meteorologist I don't believe I'm an expert in the subject and to be frank, I don't want to be as such. My understanding of the situation was definitely fueled by these discussions on Netweather a year or two ago and other sources and I would thought that rather than seeing it is as a bad thing that it's now getting exposure, it should be a good thing.

Regards,

M.

[MattH]

Latest ECMWF 32 day from overnight shows a very changeable and almost near impossible synoptic trend to track really. From clearly a spell of very unsettled conditions short term, but to completely the opposite potentially by late October and into early November with a strong signal for higher pressure to build across the UK and other areas of Europe.

In essence, it really shows an 'almost anything is possible' scenario really in the coming 2 to 4 weeks, from active, potentially deep autumnal lows, to perhaps far more anticyclonic conditions as well...Little sign however for below or well below average temperatures, in fact, the opposite.

Cheers,

M.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Interesting Matt.

I am not sure people will like your last paragraph.

You say that an "almost anything is possible scenario" exists, then surely this could mean cold, average, warm in equal measure really?

Anyway, maybe this is best discussed in the MOD thread.

[chionomaniac]

Latest ECMWF 32 day from overnight shows a very changeable and almost near impossible synoptic trend to track really. From clearly a spell of very unsettled conditions short term, but to completely the opposite potentially by late October and into early November with a strong signal for higher pressure to build across the UK and other areas of Europe.

In essence, it really shows an 'almost anything is possible' scenario really in the coming 2 to 4 weeks, from active, potentially deep autumnal lows, to perhaps far more anticyclonic conditions as well...Little sign however for below or well below average temperatures, in fact, the opposite.

Cheers,

M.

I think that suggests that we are very much at a crossroad Matt, for what is likely to occur for the final third of autumn.

And I think that that is very much the case stratospherically as well. We are seeing strong cooling of the middle stratosphere forecast with an upper strengthening vortex. Will the tropospheric vortex disturbances be able to have any impact on this?

It's certainly one that I am not going to try to call presently, though I imagine that we will need to see the northern arm of the BDC increase if the middle strat is to be warmed up!

Edited October 12, 2012 by chionomaniac

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Once sharp cooling starts is it normally the case that it continues and is hard to stop? It seems to be heading the wrong way...

BFTP

[johnholmes]

I don't think this is the case at all. I think it is a case of as something new develops and becomes more exposed due to individuals like Chionomaniac, of whom I have a lot of respect in terms of knowledge in this field, then others want to find out more, particularly from a scientists point of view. That is how many people learn, it gets some exposure, in this instance on an internet forum and also from actual published journals/articles and people then begin to take notice and want to learn about this 'new' and credible subject.

As a meteorologist I don't believe I'm an expert in the subject and to be frank, I don't want to be as such. My understanding of the situation was definitely fueled by these discussions on Netweather a year or two ago and other sources and I would thought that rather than seeing it is as a bad thing that it's now getting exposure, it should be a good thing.

Regards,

M.

Yes me too Matt, as a retired forecaster I totally agree with your last paragraph