Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[lorenzo]

Great update C. the three zonal wind profile areas you highlight well spotted. Truly a Winter where the Stratosphere bossed the media and rightly so a much better lead than the MJO. GP being our expert in GWO perhaps Next winter Strat vs GWO with the aid of Recretos analogs, which I cannot wait to see in full.

The main point I would like to highlight this winter and speaking candidly here is that having switched onto the Strat elements in 2010 when I was busy figuring out GP technical posts, we are all learners here and unashamedly I admit am a rank amateur too, on looking at the posts and predictions I saw the strat correlation in real time as great guidance. Simple as that - it works people! Just as for MJO Cassou analogs work - its an amazing insight, you cannot deny that.

Having watched the MJO forcing unfold the strat takes the lead, this Winter it demonstrated that admirably, great to see in mainstream media. ultimately the point is this, nothing would have broken that January default other than the significant stratospheric activity.

Without argument it changed the pattern and delivered many a superb Winter episode, sadly I think I used up all my snow chips in 2010! Other folks, however reading on here Best Winter to date / lifetime, this should not be forgotten. I think some expected the SSW to deliver 2009/2010 once in 50 yrs synoptics and this caused the chasing the jam.

What I want to know more of now, and subject for summer is the activity at 1hpa and correlation to downwelling, papers hint at mesosphere activity regarding Gravity waves, this physics is beyond me Lorenzo Polvani wrote one paper hinting at this being an area of next research. It is great to see not just more people dial into Strat thoughts but the subject itself extend scientific boundaries.

Re-analysis will explain more, the grey area of Canadian Warming for me remains one for exploration as do the Wildcard SSts leading into winter.. a great learning experience this season. Highly enjoyable and another fantastic Strat thread. Forgot to mention the SH drain of Ozone and BDO, this also evident whether for a pre-cursor to the Canadian Warming or the actual SSW event have not figured this out.. Still vitally relevant.

Strat versus close up hardcore synoptics - both are equal science and both carry same relevance. Final thought - don't get lost in the hype, am guilty as any for ramping the possibilites that beckoned, the NAO didnt play ball, in time with a larger dataset all will be revealed. Let's just say we are where even the pro's show interest and that ultimately is a great thing..

[chionomaniac]

Thanks Lorenzo.

I think that it is also worth pointing out that the stratospheric SSW change didn't happen all by itself - it was very much a reaction to the preceding tropospheric conditions. And it is learning how these tropospheric precurser conditions feed back into the stratosphere and return back down to the troposphere that is all important in helping us understand the mechanisms involved and increasing the ability to forecast for the mid term.

I think that this year has been a pivotal year in the acceptance of the stratosphere influences in tropospheric conditions. We have had the met office, BBC, and others demonstrate to weather enthusiasts and the general public how the stratospheric conditions (through the SSW) have affected the tropospheric weather patterns. And with one or two notable exceptions on here, we have seen a general swaying of opinion towards accepting this importance of stratospheric conditions in influencing the troposphere. And for that I am truly grateful as it has made my efforts all the more worthwhile.

Edited March 1, 2013 by chionomaniac

[johnholmes]

A first class thread with excellent inputs from several folk, not naming you, you are aware who you are and I for one am really grateful for an insight into meteorology I had never heard of-thanks folks and look forward to the next outputs from you 2013-14. I may even manage to read and finally absorb some of the more difficult bits during the summer, well difficult for me.

[swebby]

..................And the OLR anomalies that go with them depicting a very clear suggestion of increased TC east of the Dateline and Africa and decreased convection in the east Pacific / Central Americas.

................

Would this lead to an active hurricane season in the atlantic?

Edited March 2, 2013 by swebby

[summer blizzard]

..................And the OLR anomalies that go with them depicting a very clear suggestion of increased TC east of the Dateline and Africa and decreased convection in the east Pacific / Central Americas.

................

Would this lead to an active hurricane season in the atlantic?

May have got it the wrong way round but that looks Nino ish to me so the East Pacific would be the more active.

[bluearmy]

with most of the wave 1 activity forecast above 5hpa, will be interesting to see how the ecm ems deal with this upcoming scenario. the lid of the suite is 5hpa. prior to the jan SSW, the ecm ens did not see the mid jan drop in temps until the strong wave 1 activity came below 5hpa. the model suite appears to have picked up the siberian displacement well enough so far, so there is a difference apparent.

[Guest pjl20101]

Hiya folks first time I've posted on here so I would like to learn about the stratosphere a bit more and all of that lot. Basically are the teleconnections the same now to when GP did his last post? I know from SBs post that the QBO has veered westerly this month I think and maybe that is having an impact on the atmosphere currently. Also I am wondering if the PV will lose power because ATM it seems very strong.

[mesocyclone]

_{Morning all, Have asked a question related to the stratosphere here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76074-russian-meteorite-and-weather-patterns/}

_{Wondering if the coming cold was caused by the Russian meteor, Similar to a SSW, Would the energy released in this not have warmed differnet layers of the atmosphere. It was a huge energy release measured all around the world on nuclear monitoring stations.}

_{Was there heating showed over the area in question on Feb 15th? I can see cause n effect potential but wouldn't know where or how to look for the evidence.}

[Shuttler]

Hi, I am wondering if the current supremely negative AO (including the outlook for the next 2 weeks+), HLB and the relative mid-latitude cold (including much of Europe), is a continued hangover from the SSW we had in early Jan, and the resultant displacement/split of the PV ? It looks to me like to Strat PV has returned to a nearer normal state, and with downwelling this may have brought us a greater incidence of +AO by now. Or, is the negative pattern more of a response to MJO Phase 7 or 8 ? Just trying to understand the possible driver of this pattern. Thx

[Summer Sun]

Has the stratosphere warmed recently up hence this cold spell?

[chionomaniac]

It has been subject to really strong wave number 1 activity:

leading to an upper warming and lower vortex displacement to Siberia:

[Guest pjl20101]

It has been subject to really strong wave number 1 activity:

leading to an upper warming and lower vortex displacement to Siberia:

That looks a scary rate of warming to me chionomaniac my friend. Also the recent solar activity rising may be a contributior too.

[Cloud 10]

10 HPA temperatures still way below normal over the north pole at the moment,and look like

continuing like this for a good while yet.

Could this eventually lead to some sort of dramatic final warming as the stratosphere

plays"catch up"

[summer blizzard]

10 HPA temperatures still way below normal over the north pole at the moment,and look like

continuing like this for a good while yet.

Could this eventually lead to some sort of dramatic final warming as the stratosphere

plays"catch up"

Normally it's the other way around so we could see a mild flip.

[Guest pjl20101]

Hey folks when will the final warming of the stratosphere be?

[be cause]

Hey folks when will the final warming of the stratosphere be?

just before the end of the world ...

[Iceni]

Hey folks when will the final warming of the stratosphere be?

They already made the movie. The Day After Tomorrow…

[Tamara]

PDO is at last looking like it may edge towards neutral/positive - first summer for a good while! A positive QBO is also good for summer weather, not sure what a -MEI would bring though.

Analogues show some decent years there GP, 2006 is probably the outstanding one however some poorer ones there!

Surely a more positive PDO would be a big step up GP? What are your thoughts for Spring - a more el nino spring would be wetter? Whilst a perfect spring would be one with low angular momentum and a weak MJO however for a decent summer, June would need to see a more active MJO and stronger angular momentum?

I'm not sure about the PDO and how long any less negative/neutral phase would last as it is in a predominantly longer term negative phase. Wrt the stratosphere, i suspect the current remarkable -AO cold blocking regime is the last hurrah of the east QBO SSW/ wave activity which has dominated (overall) the winter and for sure the Spring season so far. It is common to have the strongest phase of blocking just prior to the end of an easterly QBO phase. And the reverse holds true in a westerly QBO regime when often some of the strongest +AO/zonal conditions prevail.

The upcoming positive QBO phase and cold 10 hPa and 30 hPa stratosphere levels will have their part to play in due course and will surely make a difference to summer prospects once the current warm tropospheric conditions and associated remarkable surface conditions have waned. Maybe in turn that might mean much less excitement to anticipate for next winter? - but that is one for later in the year...

It would be interested to know though what continued effect/mitigation the Siberian feedback process will have on the coming months with such anomalously cold conditions and SST's in place.Add in the chaos of the arctic ice patterns and nothing should be taken for granted.

As others have said, I would also add thanks to the experts who have contributed and worked so hard to update this thread with some fascinating technical information. The stratosphere/troposphere relationship is a ground breaking area of meterorological science which the METO now acknowledge plays a significant role in our weather patterns. Well done to those on here who have played such a part in making this topic so mainstream and 'out there'

Edited March 23, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Summer Sun]

One would think that getting this cold out the way now should put us in a better position to get a decent summer this year something similar to 2006 cold and wintry start to spring them come summer boom high pressure built over us and so did the heat. I'd rather get this out the way now rather than suffering through the summer with it.

Edited March 23, 2013 by Gavin.

[Guest pjl20101]

One would think that getting this cold out the way now should put us in a better position to get a decent summer this year something similar to 2006 cold and wintry start to spring them come summer boom high pressure built over us and so did the heat. I'd rather get this out the way now rather than suffering through the summer with it.

I am wondering whether Gavin that 1999 could be in the list of analogues as well? Considering the mei and qbo factors. I do believe Stewart that the stratosphere profile is acting very much like 1969 like he mentioned in one of the other posts. Tamara road has also done a very helpful post to us and I commend him for it.

[Tamara]

I am wondering whether Gavin that 1999 could be in the list of analogues as well? Considering the mei and qbo factors. I do believe Stewart that the stratosphere profile is acting very much like 1969 like he mentioned in one of the other posts. Tamara road has also done a very helpful post to us and I commend him for it.

Thank you for your nice comment - but I am actually a 'her'

[Guest pjl20101]

Thank you for your nice comment - but I am actually a 'her'

My bad haha. On a serious note I think summer blizzard posted something about the QBO is already in positive or neutral territory, what I would like with the QBO is a higher solar flux and that's not what we are getting currently and that may make a difference. Well in my books anyway.

[Don]

A question. This has probably been discussed many of times on here, but how long has the QBO been in its easterly phase?

Edited March 24, 2013 by Don

[chionomaniac]

A question. This has probably been discussed many of times on here, but how long has the QBO been in its easterly phase?

Since August 2011

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

[lorenzo]

This was the profile I was wondering if you had any further thoughts on, Looks like similar pattern to the other 3 you mentioned in an earlier post C.

Cheers, for reply in the model thread.

Wonder where Stewart is, would be good to have his thoughts on GWO and how he sees April progressing. Though I saw signs of Asian torque activity on the 72 hrs ECM plot this evening.

Edited March 24, 2013 by lorenzo