Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[chionomaniac]

This was the profile I was wondering if you had any further thoughts on, Looks like similar pattern to the other 3 you mentioned in an earlier post C.

I was posting something similar at the same time in the model thread, L.

What we can see from this is those 3 phased downwellings, from Cohens studies, that we so much concentrated on prior to the SSW. They are there in full glory for all to see.

And now we have a forth tagged on the end from the recent wave 1 upsurge.

[chionomaniac]

This was the profile I was wondering if you had any further thoughts on, Looks like similar pattern to the other 3 you mentioned in an earlier post C.

Cheers, for reply in the model thread.

Wonder where Stewart is, would be good to have his thoughts on GWO and how he sees April progressing. Though I saw signs of Asian torque activity on the 72 hrs ECM plot this evening.

I think that he would see April as a dramatic turnaround month - something akin to the MJO phase 5 for the second half of April.

My guess would be that for the second half of April we will see settled, dry and warmer conditions over the southern half of the country with fronts draped over the far NW.

Edited March 24, 2013 by chionomaniac

[Don]

Since August 2011

http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data

Thanks Chino

[Summer Sun]

I think that he would see April as a dramatic turnaround month - something akin to the MJO phase 5 for the second half of April.

My guess would be that for the second half of April we will see settled, dry and warmer conditions over the southern half of the country with fronts draped over the far NW.

Excellent news, only to be expected this cold will give way to warmer weather eventually

Edited March 25, 2013 by Gavin.

[sebastiaan1973]

Excellent article at the Dutch website weer.nl (part of Meteoconsult)

http://www.weer.nl/weer-in-het-nieuws/weernieuws/ch/a8fcdea1d3d2709c0605e43404e543c7/article/oostenwind.html

It states that the current situation is possible a part of the SSW in januar. So knowledge about the SSW is becoming widespread and more common. Very good developments!

Blokkade

Het is niet onmogelijk dat de opvallende persistentie van de huidige weersituatie nog altijd voortkomt uit de extreme Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) die eerder in de winter, in januari en februari, van zich deed spreken. Een sterke SSW in het poolgebied veroorzaakt doorgaans een sterke blokkade in het stromingspatroon op noordelijke breedtegraad. Hoewel er van de SSW inmiddels allang geen sprake meer is, weet de blokkade in het luchtdrukpatroon nog altijd van geen wijken. Een sterke SSW in de winter boven het poolgebied hebben we de afgelopen jaren trouwens vaker gezien. Waarom zo een opmerkelijke grootschalige verandering in de temperatuur van de stratosfeer zich voortdoet, is verre van duidelijk. Evenmin is het duidelijk of een mogelijk vaker optreden van een sterke SSW een onderdeel zou kunnen zijn van het wereldwijd veranderende klimaat.

[lorenzo]

Blocking

It is not impossible that the remarkable persistence of the current weather situation still arises from the extreme Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) earlier in the winter, in January and February, made her mark. A strong SSW in the Arctic usually causes a strong blockage in the flow pattern at northern latitudes. While there the SSW now long no longer know the blockage in the pressure pattern still will not budge. A strong SSW in the winter above the Arctic in recent years we have seen way more often. Why so large a remarkable change in the temperature of the stratosphere is continuing, it is far from clear. Nor is it clear whether a possible increased incidence of a strong SSW part could be the globally changing climate.

[sebastiaan1973]

Thanks Lorenzo. Your Dutch skills are amazing or Google translate is?!

[bluearmy]

i saw the govt chief scientist being interviewed and i dont think he reads this thread !! from his perspective its CO2 not SSW thats responsible

[Guest pjl20101]

i saw the govt chief scientist being interviewed and i dont think he reads this thread !! from his perspective its CO2 not SSW thats responsible

They probably have had their hands very tied nick with what they have to say and probably can't mention SSW or don't have much knowledge about it. Question to any one of you guys is has the QBO veered westerly?

[Guest pjl20101]

Any idea what the reanalysis is of April and the nearest analogues to it guys?

[johnholmes]

They probably have had their hands very tied nick with what they have to say and probably can't mention SSW or don't have much knowledge about it. Question to any one of you guys is has the QBO veered westerly?

do you really believe that or are you having a laugh?

[Guest pjl20101]

Just my interpretation John and I agree with Nick too. Would like it if some links were posted so my vision on things could be clearer.

[chionomaniac]

I think that he would see April as a dramatic turnaround month - something akin to the MJO phase 5 for the second half of April.

My guess would be that for the second half of April we will see settled, dry and warmer conditions over the southern half of the country with fronts draped over the far NW.

Following on from this post, I think that we are seeing the first signs in the extended outlook that northern blocking will wain and the potential for a mid latitude high will increase. The negative mean zonal mean wind downwelling that has predominated since the start of January is finally coming to an end, and, with no major Asian MT event now likely to occur, we will see the strengthened positive mean zonal upper stratospheric winds finally have a chance to influence the troposphere.

This is rather late in the season and the postive mean zonal winds will be weaker than if they were occurring earlier in the season, however, there should still be enough of a push left to increase the polar vortex westerlies and lead to a more positive AO by mid month ( and lo behold : http://www.cpc.ncep....ndex_ensm.shtml )

If we align this to the MJO ensemble forecasts then we now see the possibility of phase 5 showing in the forecasts that wasn't showing a week ago:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

This is now showing in the more traditional GFS mean runs H500 mean charts at day 10:

So, in essence, we should see more settled and warmer conditions (850 temps) towards the south of the country and more unsettled further north - but warmer above average temperatures should make a pleasant change for the second half of the month.

Edited April 1, 2013 by chionomaniac

[lorenzo]

MJO link above is returning a 404?

[chionomaniac]

MJO link above is returning a 404?

Working now

[lorenzo]

Cheers C, NOAA famous for their site dropping out now and again, wasn't sure which MJO link you were pointing to, have posted some of the GWO and Torque charts in the technical thread, wondering if you can have a look through them and add some ideas?

Also MJO got a rare mention on BBC news pages here.. surprising !

[chionomaniac]

Cheers C, NOAA famous for their site dropping out now and again, wasn't sure which MJO link you were pointing to, have posted some of the GWO and Torque charts in the technical thread, wondering if you can have a look through them and add some ideas?

Also MJO got a rare mention on BBC news pages here.. surprising !

Yet again that shows how ahead of the game Stewart is. Boy are we going to miss him!

[Guest pjl20101]

Ed I am missing him like mad my friend and thought he was a great assistance to everyone on this forum with the stratospheric knowledge. Pleased that the MJO has been mentioned, was wondering with what sites I could look up to increase my stratospheric knowledge?

[shotski]

Ed I am missing him like mad my friend and thought he was a great assistance to everyone on this forum with the stratospheric knowledge. Pleased that the MJO has been mentioned, was wondering with what sites I could look up to increase my stratospheric knowledge?

Hi PJ

Where is he going / gone to ?

[chionomaniac]

Ed I am missing him like mad my friend and thought he was a great assistance to everyone on this forum with the stratospheric knowledge. Pleased that the MJO has been mentioned, was wondering with what sites I could look up to increase my stratospheric knowledge?

Try reading the teleconective papers that we put in this thread:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73911-technical-teleconnective-papers/

There will be more additions this summer I am sure.

[Guest pjl20101]

I will look at it ed so many times so I can get a true grasp on it. Am sure my underpinning knowledge will increase bit by bit on it.

[Guest pjl20101]

Hi PJ

Where is he going / gone to ?

If you read 'this is the end' thread in the general weather section you will find out his venture.

[Cloud 10]

Following on from this post, I think that we are seeing the first signs in the extended outlook that northern blocking will wain and the potential for a mid latitude high will increase. The negative mean zonal mean wind downwelling that has predominated since the start of January is finally coming to an end, and, with no major Asian MT event now likely to occur, we will see the strengthened positive mean zonal upper stratospheric winds finally have a chance to influence the troposphere.

This is rather late in the season and the postive mean zonal winds will be weaker than if they were occurring earlier in the season, however, there should still be enough of a push left to increase the polar vortex westerlies and lead to a more positive AO by mid month ( and lo behold : http://www.cpc.ncep....ndex_ensm.shtml )

If we align this to the MJO ensemble forecasts then we now see the possibility of phase 5 showing in the forecasts that wasn't showing a week ago:

http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml

This is now showing in the more traditional GFS mean runs H500 mean charts at day 10:

So, in essence, we should see more settled and warmer conditions (850 temps) towards the south of the country and more unsettled further north - but warmer above average temperatures should make a pleasant change for the second half of the month.

The temperatures at 10 hpa over the pole have been well below normal for quite a while

now,so it was only a matter of time (a long time!) until they filtered down to affect

the troposphere, which as you say looks like driving the AO positive as we head towards

the middle of April.

[cooling climate]

Yet again that shows how ahead of the game Stewart is. Boy are we going to miss him!

Hard to believe that article when you consider that the Met Office is reputed to be one

of the leaders in meteorology and yet it describes the MJO as "little understood climate

phenomenom".

I don't by that for a second they are just looking for excuses, the works of Wickman and

Berry 2008 are very well documented and it is as rare as hens teeth these days to find

a weather forum that does not understand the importance of the MJO in climatic patterns

around the world. Yet according to this article we are to believe a professional meteorological

organisation such as the Met have only just stumbled on its importance.

I wonder what excuse they will use for their long range forcast for February and March

issued on the 20th of December which forcast a probability of above average temperatures.

Um coldest March for 50+years, Whoops.

As we all know long range forcasts are notoriously difficult and a stratospheric warming (ssw)

or lack of one can throw a forcast completely off track.

[lorenzo]

Email from strat list. 3rd April sees a live broadcast from Kyoto on ustream for all the insomniacs out there !!

http://www-mete.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/Kyoto2013/index.html

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/wcrp-sparcwskyoto2013