Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[johnholmes]

glad my understanding which I did not feel confident enough to share chio fits with your comment-thanks

[Cloud 10]

A very good article,which is well written and explained.

I was waiting for him to mention "mountain torque event" when he talked about the "launchpad"
needed for the warm air to rise,and was relieved to read Chio's post confirming they were
the same thing!


All eyes on Chinese height rises for next winter then. 

[Interitus]

That is an interesting article but flawed in the suggestion of a 'launchpad' - that the vertical motion leads to warm tropospheric air being pumped into the stratosphere to the 10mb level.

 

This is based upon an anomalously warm tongue of air extending over time from the mid-latitudes to the polar regions in this 10mb chart -

 

 

If we look at a lower level (100mb) we do not see the same anomalously warm 'tail' of air which would happen if it passed through this height

 

 

A cross-section of actual stratospheric temperatures over this same geographical area at the peak of this time from 30/12/12 - 10/1/13 shows that the higher stratosphere is actually warmer than lower down, warmer air isn't rising through it is advecting northwards. There also appears to be some possibly compressional warming to the north of the mountainous latitudes which might be expected with wave motion.

 

 

Mountain or anticylonically generated atmospheric waves alter the stratospheric circulation and a 10mb chart of actual temperatures shows warmer stratospheric air displaced polewards from an earlier time than and more southerly area than the anomaly chart -

 

 

This is evidenced by the animation in the article which shows the 10mb anomalies spreading first from north Africa and Arabia before southern Asia.

 

This can also be seen in the rather nice video animation linked recently on this thread and can roughly be simulated at home - if a vortex is produced in a sink or bath plug hole, disturbing the flow near the surface leads to an almost instantaneous disruption of the vortex in the same way as disturbing the upper levels of the strat polar vortex breaks down in an SSW.

 

Final warming naturally occurs through radiation from the top down and this is the norm for the southern hemisphere, but ~80% of NH final warmings happen in the mid-levels first (10mb) because of these wave interactions, causing the final warming to occur earlier than would otherwise be expected (http://elib.dlr.de/71036/1/Hardiman_et_al_2011.pdf)

Edited April 23, 2013 by Interitus

[chionomaniac]

For those interested in next months influences look no further than the current mean zonal wind anomalies at 60ºN. These are running well above average. What we are seeing is the knock on effect from the SSW. The polar vortex took a long time to recover following January's SSW and March's wave 1 activity increase, but now it has done so the positive mean zonal winds have filtered down to the troposphere and the HLB's have diminished.

 

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/u60n_100_2012_merra.pdf

 

 

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/u60n_50_2012_merra.pdf

 

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/u60n_10_2012_merra.pdf

 

 

If we can get some kind of alignment from the MJO/GWO then mid latitude blocking will persist for some time into May. 

Edited April 24, 2013 by chionomaniac

[Buriedundersnow]

came across another animation of this winters SSW so thought i would post it its not as good as the other one i posted before

 

http://curriculum.pmartineau.webfactional.com/wp-content/svw_gallery/test/gif/2013_01_17.gif

[Cloud 10]

Quite a quick recovery of 10mb temperatures over the pole over the last few weeks and now

a bit above average.

 

 

 

 

Plenty of negative zonal winds in the higher levels of the stratosphere,although this

could be normal for this time of year?

 

[cooling climate]

I posted this in the climate thread because there are probably more knowledgeable people dwelling here. I'll post it anyway but feel free to disagree.

 

Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Causes & Effects

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/sudden-stratospheric-warmings-causes-effects.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

A very good review.The Jan 2013 SSW almost certainly originated from the tropical pacific. I remember

submitting a post showing the same animation of the warming through December into January and

suggested that this was the main reason for the failed easterly in December and the switch in the long

range outlook from cold to milder from the Met Office and other long range models through December

into January.

One thing that does annoy is the back slapping from the Met on how well the GloSEa model did at

predicting the SSW and subsequent blocking and cold weather that followed and yet the Mets

longer range outlook for Feb and March issued Dec 20 was the opposite to cold with a higher

chance of above average temps. Plus they missed the record breaking cold March by a country

mile.

[Harve]

A very good review.The Jan 2013 SSW almost certainly originated from the tropical pacific. I remembersubmitting a post showing the same animation of the warming through December into January andsuggested that this was the main reason for the failed easterly in December and the switch in the longrange outlook from cold to milder from the Met Office and other long range models through Decemberinto January.One thing that does annoy is the back slapping from the Met on how well the GloSEa model did atpredicting the SSW and subsequent blocking and cold weather that followed and yet the Metslonger range outlook for Feb and March issued Dec 20 was the opposite to cold with a higherchance of above average temps. Plus they missed the record breaking cold March by a countrymile.

I'm not sure if bashing the Met is warranted.There can still be an SSW and significant blocking and yet the UK could remain mild. At times the Met Office's 16-30 day outlook did suggest mild but I think it generally stuck to the cold theme.

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Mar 2013 to Monday 18 Mar 2013:Some areas still a little colder than average at the start of this period, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK. Nights are then often also likely to be frosty. Also some signs of conditions being a little more unsettled during the early part of this forecast period, perhaps with a chance of snow. Generally, however, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, and taking the period as a whole, some areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual for the time of year. Finally, towards the middle of March temperatures may recover close to the seasonal norm.Updated: 1110 on Sun 17 Feb 2013

That seems about right to me, the very cold period only started at the end of March (outside the forecast period) and temperatures did indeed recover to the seasonal average, albeit briefly.

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Mar 2013 to Thursday 4 Apr 2013:Most areas are likely to be colder than average during this period, with an easterly influence most probable. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, in an easterly regime, some western and northwestern areas of the UK are most likely to be drier and sunnier than normal.Updated: 1159 on Wed 6 Mar 2013

They're never going to say things like 'record-breaking cold', as the difference between record-breaking and merely rather cold can be relatively small, and subtleties like that are impossible to pick out at such a range.

[johnholmes]

I like that post Harve, not because you support Met in it but because you quoted items to support your view. Reading a forecast and we are all liable to read the bits we want to read. I can tell you from pesonal experience that trying to get the right phrasing so everyone thinks they have read the same is very very difficult using text only.

[Tamara]

I think that the METO underestimated the effects of the exceptional cold relative to March. On the back of the SSW there was strong Wave 1 activity at the end of winter and start of March which led to a significant further warming of the upper and mid stratosphere and no doubt reinforced the already very negative AO feedback profile that was by this time well established with further (rapid) downwelling of negative zonal anomalies to the troposphere. This took many of the professionals by surprise in its intensity and the deep cold pooling in-situ feedback that had been building over NE Europe and Russia since January and flirting with us over the SSW period itself, was just waiting to properly spill westwards and southwards during that first half of March.

 

So did the METO pick up on the extra Wave 1 activity at the time - and which was documented readily by the team on here? Obviously they documented the SSW and spoke at length about this through the latter part of the winter but I think they may have underestimated, or maybe not foreseen the extra surge of upper warming that occured as Spring was about to begin and which made March such a bitterly cold extension of the winter season

Edited May 5, 2013 by Tamara Road

[cooling climate]

Harve with ref to your response to my post there was no intential Met bashing at all I was

simply telling it the way it is.The forcasts the met gave out were not very accurate especially

the longer range. Why not admit it or say nothing rather than pretend to have been on the

ball from the off. Very poor form but then how many times has the Met come out and said

whoops sorry about that when a forcast has clearly gone titicus verticus.

[Guest pjl20101]

The cfs picked up on the very cold march very quickly and were very aware of the ssw event that was taking place in january and that the northern blocking was becoming more magnified in nature, other users will support what I say about it.

[picog]

Will the warming of the past few days have any bearing on our summer weather?

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

[Guest pjl20101]

Will the warming of the past few days have any bearing on our summer weather?

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

Probably as with the warming of the stratosphere comes the breaking up of the polar vortex meaning things may get unstable again.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Probably as with the warming of the stratosphere comes the breaking up of the polar vortex meaning things may get unstable again.

 

Looking at the CFS height anomalies well into autumn and winter over the past month, I think it's supporting the notion of a perpetuated above average strat profile- hence this repeated anomaly for January

 

 

At this far out I've never seen such consistency for generally higher than average pressure to our north and low pressure anomalies to our south.

 

 

 

Edited May 20, 2013 by CreweCold

[Tamara]

Will the warming of the past few days have any bearing on our summer weather?

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

This is the seasonal Final warming of the stratosphere before it enters summer conditions - which in broad terms means the polar vortex goes AWOL till autumn when tempertures across the polar stratosphere fall away once again

 

However in tandem with other factors I do that we are looking at the possibility of another cool and fairly unsettled summer with the jet stream once more further south than average for summer.

 

The CFS anomalies are interesting for next winter - they only have another 6 months or so to stay consistent

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

 

The CFS anomalies are interesting for next winter - they only have another 6 months or so to stay consistent

 

Could be the big one?

 

Then again, on the flip side, it could not be the big one

[Guest pjl20101]

This is the seasonal Final warming of the stratosphere before it enters summer conditions - which in broad terms means the polar vortex goes AWOL till autumn when tempertures across the polar stratosphere fall away once again

However in tandem with other factors I do that we are looking at the possibility of another cool and fairly unsettled summer with the jet stream once more further south than average for summer.

The CFS anomalies are interesting for next winter - they only have another 6 months or so to stay consistent

Think Tamara road that the GLOSEA4 was indicating above average heights towards scandanavia with average heights elsewhere, with a cooler than average shading only just and a shading of mainly a just below average, the cfs supports that idea currently.

The GLOSEA4 model has been very good indeed as its nailed the teleconnections with pin point accuracy as well as picking up on stratospheric conditions too. A pity as the met office probabilities thing seems to have been less accurate.

Think a traditional type of summer is the favoured option to be honest with ya.

[masheeuk]

This is the seasonal Final warming of the stratosphere before it enters summer conditions - which in broad terms means the polar vortex goes AWOL till autumn when tempertures across the polar stratosphere fall away once again

 

However in tandem with other factors I do that we are looking at the possibility of another cool and fairly unsettled summer with the jet stream once more further south than average for summer.

 

The CFS anomalies are interesting for next winter - they only have another 6 months or so to stay consistent

Could you please let me know where you go to see these anomolies charts. I have had a scout about but not seen them.

Edited May 21, 2013 by masheeuk

[Tamara]

Could you please let me know where you go to see these anomolies charts. I have had a scout about but not seen them.

Hi, sorry, I've only just read this . You may well have an answer by this time, but if you haven't then here you are

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/cfs-1-12-2013.png

 

You can find the pressure charts etc from meteocil as well which are updated all the time

Edited May 24, 2013 by Tamara Road

[masheeuk]

Hi, sorry, I've only just read this . You may well have an answer by this time, but if you haven't then here you are

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/cfs-1-12-2013.png

 

You can find the pressure charts etc from meteocil as well which are updated all the time

 

Brilliant thank you

[Frozen Britain]

Since it's September tomorrow, and the first day of "meteorological autumn", people start to wonder about the upcoming winter.

When, in the autumns of 2009 and 2010, did we get the first indications that the stratosphere was running "above normal", i.e. the stratosphere was very warm?

For example, last autumn, the stratosphere was cooler than it was in autumn 2009 and 2010, hence we did not get very favourable stratospheric conditions by the time November/December knocked on our door.

Edited August 31, 2013 by Frozen Britain

[johnholmes]

the date this usually starts is in the original title, 30 September before chio starts his outputs; prior to that and the Stratospheric temperature has little relation to the lower bit we live in.

Edited August 31, 2013 by johnholmes

[Frozen Britain]

Is it too early to look at stratospheric temperatures over the tropical equator?

It needs to be pretty cold to transport ozone to the pole.

[crikey]

We had some interesting atmospheric wave action in the sth Hemisphere this winter which is stillunderway

 

I had taken some notes if anyone is interested.

 

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1188254/Stratospheric_sudden_warmings_#Post1188254

 

 

http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2013/08/16/another-stratospheric-warming-event-ssw-in-the-southern-hemisphere-august-2013/

 

----------------------------------------------------

 

BTW.. Stratospheric warming is commencing at 10mb since the 29th Aug2013 just Nth of Alaska..

 

Hey what do you think of our waves orbiting the south pole atm!!

 Awesome animation here. The crests are warmings , the troughs are cooler anomlaies.

Is there a stratosphere experts who could fill me in one what's happening here.. Thanks..

 

source of animation

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com.au/2013/03/2013-official-severe-weather-outlook.html

 

 

Edited September 2, 2013 by crikey