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Model Output Discussion October 2012


chionomaniac

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

One chart worth showing tonight.

Just where is the jet stream heading?

post-4523-0-43778200-1350081057_thumb.pn

Play it again Sam?

BFTP

Yes 18z defo more blocked......but its the pub run...and deep FI familiar story, but that's FI

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham
Posted

One chart worth showing tonight.

Just where is the jet stream heading?

post-4523-0-43778200-1350081057_thumb.pn

it's been heading there for quite a while now.

Posted
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
Posted

Should we be looking towards NE Europe for the first wintry blast then OldMetMan?

My guess is that the first sortie will more likely be from the N, as I said, so much depends on this northern block developing. Bit too early to expect any real cold yet, which is why I am following the thickness charts closely to watch for any cold pooling in the area you mention, plus the Arctic region in general. Like I said in another post, the cooling seems to be happening quite quickly.

Give it a few more days and see if the longer term trends are coming into line in the model output with regard to blocking or not.

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton
Posted

A big difference on the latest 00Z GFS run compared to the last run. Any one up early enough to spot it?

The clue is SM's favourite place - the southern tip of Greenland at T+144. Anyone who uses NW extra previous run comparer alongside will get it straight away.

Also sadly not seen on the UKMO 00Z!

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

My guess is that the first sortie will more likely be from the N, as I said, so much depends on this northern block developing. Bit too early to expect any real cold yet, which is why I am following the thickness charts closely to watch for any cold pooling in the area you mention, plus the Arctic region in general. Like I said in another post, the cooling seems to be happening quite quickly.

Give it a few more days and see if the longer term trends are coming into line in the model output with regard to blocking or not.

Thanks for replying, I always enjoy reading your posts.

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

I think we will see what Steve Murr has been alluding to, but again this may pass the UK by:

http://cdn.nwstatic....240/npsh500.png

https://twitter.com/...896263247765504

It looks like the US are going to get extreme cold in the time frame forecast by Steve. He is usually right with the stratospheric events but it is then hit and miss as to where the outcome is; last year was a case in point, just too far to our east.

Today's 0z Op GFS has a favourable jet but it still only promises a LP dominated rain scenario with average to cool 2m temps depending on location. At the end of the run LP systems remain in charge, but it is an obvious outlier:

http://nwstatic.co.u...bae1a27a85225e8

Though GFS does have Lp in charge till T228, according to their Cluster ENS:

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Then HP encroaches at varying degrees and at T372 it is 50:50 Hp or LP, members split.

So model support for at least ten days of the UK under a trough and from there, still variable.

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

My guess is that the first sortie will more likely be from the N, as I said, so much depends on this northern block developing. Bit too early to expect any real cold yet, which is why I am following the thickness charts closely to watch for any cold pooling in the area you mention, plus the Arctic region in general. Like I said in another post, the cooling seems to be happening quite quickly.

Give it a few more days and see if the longer term trends are coming into line in the model output with regard to blocking or not.

come on that is far too early for it to have any bearing on winter, again see the post from chio about when the Stratosphere thread is usually opened and the comment from GP?

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

I think many of us were taken by the unusual amount of Arctic heights modelled recently.Quite understandably this invited a lot of comment and seduced many of us into looking for this pattern to perhaps to develop further as we headed towards November.

As we can see outputs are now heading towards a more normal Autumn pattern with runs since yesterday showing those blues(lows) filling in the spaces to our North.

For the time being we continue with unsettled and at times wet conditons in a westerly type pattern.The jet still on a mainly southerly path across or just south of the UK for much of the time there will be a fair amount of of polar maritime air in the mix making it feel rather cold on some days.

Certainly as John H alluded too it`s far to soon for cold lovers to be concerned about this with Winter still weeks away.

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

I think the well versed posters who are positioning themselves as to what is happening now 'may' have affect down the line have as much right as any and might be as correct as those that saywe must wait until November at earliest. This place would be a poorer forum for uniformity. Speculate to accumulate...?

What we can say is that the jet is continuing on its generally southerly track and from that I think it can be gleaned that this jet pattern which has been going on for 5 years seems to be more than a blip now and more like the 'norm'. Thus what is happening now may be as relevant as what happens next month. For me the jet is key.

00z show the jet way south, no signs of any change soon

Now onto the 16th and 25th anniversary of the Great Storm

ecmslp.072.png.GFS same time range

airpressure.png

What we think, deepen/upgrade, remain same, or slacken/downgrade further

BFTP

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

A big difference on the latest 00Z GFS run compared to the last run. Any one up early enough to spot it?

The clue is SM's favourite place - the southern tip of Greenland at T+144. Anyone who uses NW extra previous run comparer alongside will get it straight away.

Also sadly not seen on the UKMO 00Z!

You mean this C?

airpressure.png

Very deep depression, one would expect eastward progress........to this

airpressure.png

Depression makes no eastward progress getting sent up west side of Greenland. Finally onto this...bye bye

airpressure.png

BFTP

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

its completely nuts to think that northern blocking of the type we see modelled over the next week or so will continue unabated for the next few weeks through november. a p/v will form over the arctic but its where it forms and how strong and organised it becomes thats important. the onset of more 'blues' on the maps as we head through autumn is unavoidable. the colours don't tell all the story though as one needs to look at the surface pressure levels aswell and the movements of the pressure/thickness patterns. i think too many posters are forgetting that we have still not reached mid october. deep ncep fi continues to create a stronger vortex but until we see that come under T300, i would be sceptical. too much mean variation for my liking.

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton
Posted

You mean this C?

Very deep depression, one would expect eastward progress........to this

Depression makes no eastward progress getting sent up west side of Greenland. Finally onto this...bye bye

BFTP

That would be the one. Interesting to see even though not supported by the ECM and GFS.

Posted
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
Posted

Thanks for replying, I always enjoy reading your posts.

Thank you Frosty, much appreciated!

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

I think the well versed posters who are positioning themselves as to what is happening now 'may' have affect down the line have as much right as any and might be as correct as those that saywe must wait until November at earliest. This place would be a poorer forum for uniformity. Speculate to accumulate...?

BFTP

Of course they have the right, any of us have a right provided we back it up with evidence to air our views. The trouble is some with, I have to say, little apparent understanding of some of the elements involved, are drowning out the more sensible and objective posters.

I dread this winter on any of the weather threads if what seems to be happening on the winter 2012-13 carries on.

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

That would be the one. Interesting to see even though not supported by the ECM and GFS.

You mean UKMO? However, UKMO starts to send/deflect it east on a southerly track though which is interesting too.

BFTP

Posted
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
Posted

come on that is far too early for it to have any bearing on winter, again see the post from chio about when the Stratosphere thread is usually opened and the comment from GP?

John, I freely admit that my suggestions for longer term weather trends are largely intuitive and so can run counter to what other scientific evidence for these may suggest. As you were a Met Office forecaster of long-standing, I am sure you made use of your "weather instincts" at times when faced with mixed or contradictory model output when making your forecasts. All I do is base what I say on what I see on current surface and upper air charts and what I have seen in the past. Not exactly scientific, I know and I can and do get it wrong! However, we'll see what happens!

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

Of course they have the right, any of us have a right provided we back it up with evidence to air our views. The trouble is some with, I have to say, little apparent understanding of some of the elements involved, are drowning out the more sensible and objective posters.

I dread this winter on any of the weather threads if what seems to be happening on the winter 2012-13 carries on.

Indeed John, I think some are backing it up with reasonable argument. To require 'evidence' is to high a bar to achieve as we are loooking at FI a lot of the time, reasonable projection/feasibilty should be enough?

BFTP

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton
Posted

You mean UKMO? However, UKMO starts to send/deflect it east on a southerly track though which is interesting too.

BFTP

Yes sorry

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

currently of interest to me is the NH profile post T192 (where GFS op changes resolution). we can see the polar regions become much less blocked within 48 hours. looking at ECM and GEM, we dont see nearly as much blocking lost in the 8/10 day range. GFS op has suffered from this change in resolution before when patterns are likely to alter somewhat and tends to over react on the op run. whilst it is likely right that blocking will reduce (which it surely has to), i suspect you will see the blocking become more prevalent again on the gfs op runs as they comes towards T192.

one would imagine the upcoming pattern to be quite difficult to model and a sudden change in resolution wont help the op output.

Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER
Posted

Of course they have the right, any of us have a right provided we back it up with evidence to air our views. The trouble is some with, I have to say, little apparent understanding of some of the elements involved, are drowning out the more sensible and objective posters.

I dread this winter on any of the weather threads if what seems to be happening on the winter 2012-13 carries on.

Ditto, but hopefully the CAAC gang will be reigned in a little tighter this season, giving everyone equal opportunity to air their particular viewpoints....let's hope so anyway.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The latest ens mean continues to show unsettled weather with low pressure generally just to the west or northwest throughout the next few weeks with winds generally from a westerly point, sometimes south of west but never really going north of west, there is no sign of anything anticyclonic affecting the uk according to the mean but reading between the lines, there are likely to be some gaps appearing in the bad weather with occasionally milder, brighter and drier spells at times, more especially towards the southeast of the uk by week 2 but the week ahead looks generally rather cool and also windy at times with spells of rain and showers but with drier intervals and if skies clear overnight, a touch of frost and some mist is probable but generally too much cloud and breeze for that to become a problem. The Gfs 06z operational shows a surge of arctic air through greenland and being ejected out of canada and briefly, our pattern becomes more amplified with a few colder days deep in FI with a few wintry showers and more widespread frosts as atlantic high pressure topples across the uk but it all generally looks typical autumn fare with no sign of anything significantly cold showing on the charts for the uk.

post-4783-0-29467400-1350137611_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-95149200-1350137630_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-44103700-1350137650_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-91949400-1350137665_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-96970300-1350137678_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-42667400-1350137702_thumb.pn

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

Charts showing very typical mid autumnal fayre, atlantic firmly in change ushering in spells of heavy rain and strong winds, with temporary shortlived drier spells inbetween bringing the risk of frost and fog. Indeed this October is shaping up to be a very traditional old style October.. with low pressure dominating. We have become used to a number of very settled October's with a lengthy spell of dry often very mild and sunny weather, but this year I can't see such a spell now happening all thanks to strong heights to the north and more southerly tracking jet and more importantly no significant euro heights.

Next week looks decidedly wet, and I'm expecting further flooding unfortunately, with the ground so wet now, and with evaporation levels becoming increasingly weak, it is inevitable some places with be exposed to further flooding misery.

The last week of October traditionally is one of the wettest most atlantic dominated periods of the year - similiar to early December... now is not the time of year to expect high pressure to dominate, quite the contrary, and now is also not the time of year to expect any significantly colder than normal weather.. you need a northerly to produce such goods, and northerlies are not renowned for sticking around for any great length of time, more often than not they only deliver short lived shocks at this time of year.

More generally speaking, the first half of Autumn 2012 has been very very seasonal indeed.

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Posted · Hidden by phil nw., October 13, 2012 - Not model discussion
Hidden by phil nw., October 13, 2012 - Not model discussion

Indeed John, I think some are backing it up with reasonable argument. To require 'evidence' is to high a bar to achieve as we are loooking at FI a lot of the time, reasonable projection/feasibilty should be enough?

BFTP

The majority of us don't have the knowledge or training to be able to come up with reasonable arguments, but we don't want to stop them posting, everyone's opinion is of equal value.

What we do want to stop is bullying or trolling,

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

Re. those who are talking about current cold pooling having a significant bearing on the upcoming winter, think of the occasions when we've had major cold pooling on the near-continent and near-missed easterlies, only for us to get a full-on easterly after the continent warmed up. Or think late November 2010, when most of continental Europe was exceptionally warm, but the amount of cold pooling increased dramatically after just three days of north-easterly winds. The main point is that cold pooling can be a very short-term thing and is sensitive to changes in the synoptic setup.

Similarly I am not aware of a statistically significant correlation between northern blocking in the autumn and northern blocking in the winter.

What we have coming up is essentially a west-based negative NAO setup which would probably disappoint a lot of snow lovers if it was to arise in winter, due to the mean trough being sat to our west and forcing cold arctic airmasses to head a long way south in the Atlantic before "returning" to us from the south-west. As a result, fairly standard autumnal weather can be expected with temperatures perhaps a little bit below the seasonal average. A fairly quiet spell of weather is suggested through to Monday for most of us, before the weather turns progressively wetter and windier from the west with secondary depressions giving active rain belts at times.

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Next week is looking very unsettled for all at times, temperatures should recover to around normal by the end of next week

Rtavn961.png

Rtavn1441.png

Into the week after next things are shown to slowly settle down with northern blocking going away allowing high pressure to move in, temperatures may rise to above normal during brighter periods

Starts unsettled, but not as unsettled as next week

Rtavn2161.png

Pressure slowly starts to rise

Rtavn2641.png

Rtavn3121.png

Rtavn3361.png

So in summary

Next week will be very unsettled with Gales for some exposed western areas all areas will see blustery winds through-out the week at times, Monday and Tuesday is likely to see sunshine and showers, by Wednesday more rain will be moving in from the southwest, towards the end of the week further rain and showers will affect all areas however some drier and brighter periods are likely.

Beyond next week is very uncertain at present though it should begin to turn drier and less unsettled as pressure begins to rise however this doesn't rule out further periods of rain epically for the northern half of the UK

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