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Hurricane Rafael


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012

1100 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

RAFAEL HAS A RATHER DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY

THIS EVENING. THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS DUE TO 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR. LESS CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING TO THE

NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THERE HAVE BEEN NO OBSERVATIONS OF

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT IT IS

LIKELY THAT SUCH WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND EAST AND

SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT IN

AGREEMENT WITH THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 325/9. RAFAEL IS CURRENTLY

SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND A MID/UPPER-

LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD STEER RAFAEL GENERALLY

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH THE CENTER PASSING

NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS

FORECAST A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH OF RAFAEL AT

ABOUT 48 HR...WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BREAK DOWN AS A POWERFUL

DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH

SHOULD RECURVE RAFAEL INTO THE WESTERLIES. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS

AGREE ON THIS...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE DETAILS THAT THE GFS AND

CANDIAN SHOW A MUCH FASTER FORWARD MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE THAN

THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST IN SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.

OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE OLD TRACK AND NEAR

THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 12 HR DUE TO

CONTINUED SHEAR. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A

DECREASE IN SHEAR FROM 24-48 HR...WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE

SHOWING INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST

DURING THIS PERIOD IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE GLOBAL

MODELS AGREE ON INCREASING SHEAR AFTER 48 HR. DESPITE THIS...THE

GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIP MODELS FORECAST RAFAEL TO STRENGTHEN INTO A

HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL RELY MORE ON THE FORECAST

SHEAR AND SHOW ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HR. EXTRATROPICAL

TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BY 120 HR AND LIKELY BE COMPLETE SHORTLY

THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 15.4N 63.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 13/1200Z 16.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 14/0000Z 18.4N 64.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 14/1200Z 20.3N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 15/0000Z 22.1N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

72H 16/0000Z 26.0N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

96H 17/0000Z 34.5N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

120H 18/0000Z 44.5N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Rafael is struggling under westerly shear induced by a nearby upper level low. Winds remain at 35kts. This low is expected to fill and move away from Rafael soon, and when this occurs, Rafael has the opportunity to become a more symmetrical storm. Currently, the majority of the convection is east of the LLC. NHC forecast Rafael to become a minimal hurricane before shear rises once again beyond 72hrs. Rafael is forecast to move northwards towards Bermuda over the coming days, so they should keep an eye on this storm.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Rafael has strengthened today as shear begins to ease. Sustained winds have increased to 50kts. Rafael is building convection closer to the centre which is less elongated than before. Rafael should continue to strengthen over the next day or so and should become a hurricane. Current track takes Rafael to the southeast of Bermuda, but the island should still be wary. Rafael is being steered by a large ridge in the mid-atlantic, which should steer the storm further to the north. A trough moving off the eastern seaboard of the USA should make Rafael accelerate northeastward in 3-4 days time which will force the storm to become extratropical as shear increases and sea temps fall away along track.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Rafael has strengthened overnight and is on the verge of becoming a hurricane. Intensity is 60kts. The storm has developed a symmetrical and solid central dense overcast, and it won't be long before an eye develops in the overcast. Rafael is expected to become a hurricane later today, before shear increases tomorrow, starting a weakening trend. The track forecast continues to keep Rafael southeast of Bermuda. We should also watch Rafael as it's quite possible he will reach our shores as an extratropical storm. GFS has Rafael crossing the Atlantic and then stalling to our southwest next week, pumping some pretty warm air across us.

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Posted
  • Location: Cefn Fforest, Blackwood 228 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Cefn Fforest, Blackwood 228 asl

Thanks for the info.good.gif

I'm flying to the Caribbean on Friday and even though I know the Dominican will not be hit directly, I'm wondering how it might affect our journey there. As he looks to be going north I know he will probably cause a few problems for the flight path. We shall soon see. Do you think he'll be long gone by Friday? Seems a pretty slow mover to me.

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hicbsat_None_anim.gif

I would be in my oils if we were to experience one while we were out there but please just let me get there first.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

I would have thought Rafael would be out of the area by Friday, he will probably be extatropical in the North Atlantic by this stage :)

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Rafael is now a 65kt hurricane:

HURRICANE RAFAEL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012

645 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT RAFAEL HAS STRENGTHENED...AND ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE

NOW NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H. THIS MAKES RAFAEL THE NINTH HURRICANE

OF THE 2012 ATLANTIC SEASON.

SUMMARY OF 645 PM AST...2245 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.3N 65.7W

ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM S OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Coming to a country near you soon?????

201217N_7G.png

Hurricane RAFAEL: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 117 hours lead

144733123_sm.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Despite some shear, Rafael has managed to strengthen further and is a top end cat 1 with sustained winds of 80kts. Pressure has fallen to 971mb. A large mass of very intense convection covers the centre of the hurricane. Rafael's closest approach on Bermuda wiill be later tonight, and the weather has already started to deteriorate here. As shear rises further, Rafael is likely to begin weakening tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Strong shear and cool sea temps have caused Rafael to become extratropical, and NHC have issued their last advisory. Extratropical Rafael is expected to continue to race northeastwards then interact with another low in 4-5 days time. GFS still depicts Ex-Rafael stalling to the west of Britain feeding some very warm air over us.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Here we go again, more degrees of uncertainty!

201217N.png

201217N_7G.png

Hurricane RAFAEL: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 117 hours lead

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

NASA catches last image of Rafael as a hurricane, now merged with front

nasacatchesl.jpg

This visible image of Hurricane Rafael in the North Atlantic was taken from the MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite on Oct. 17 at 1440 UTC (10:40 a.m. EDT). Rafael's northwestern fringe clouds were brushing Nova Scotia, Canada (top left). Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team Hurricane Rafael is no longer a tropical cyclone. The storm merged with a cold front on Oct. 18, but not before NASA's Terra satellite captured an image of the storm when it was in its last day as a hurricane.

http://phys.org/news/2012-10-nasa-image-rafael-hurricane-merged.html#jCp

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