Tropical Storm Maria

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Storm Maria has formed about 400 miles south of the island of Iwo To, Japan. Maria has slowly built some convection over the LLC. Sustained winds are at 35kts. Maria is moving towards the northwest but should turn towards the north around the western periphery of a ridge to the east. A gradual bend to the northeast will occur in a few days time as Maria continues to move around the ridge. Maria is expected to strengthen modestly over the coming days as shear remains low and waters warm- however, development will be hampered by the proximity of Typhoon Prapiroon, as Prapiroon will likely prevent Maria from developing significant outflow. Extratropical transition is expected to begin in 4 days time as Maria turns to the northeast and begins it's journey out of the tropics.

[Somerset Squall]

Maria has strengthened overnight to 50kts. Maria has developed some decent centralised convection. Maria is in an environment of low to moderate shear and strong equatorward outflow, so at least some slight additional intensification is possible. However, no significant intensity gains are expected as Prapiroon continues to cause subsidence over Maria, choking convective development in the northern quadrant of the storm. Maria's northward motion along the south side of the ridge to the east willbring the storm over colder waters and increased shear in a day or two, initiating extratropical transition.

[Somerset Squall]

Maria has become a little stronger this afternoon, with sustained winds now at 55kts. The storm is moving towards the north-northeast but is expected to turn northeast then east as the storm continues to move around the ridge. Weakening is expected to begin beyong 12hrs as shear increases and sea temps cool. Maria is not expected to threaten mainland Japan.

[Somerset Squall]

Maria has turned eastwards and is weakening under high shear. The shear has left the LLC partially exposed. Intensity has fallen to 45kts. Maria is now forecast to dissipate rather than transition into a tropical storm. Dissipation is expected within the next 24hrs.

[Coast]

Doesn't look like she will be making any impact on any land mass:

Maria, I've just met a girl named Maria........