Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[P-M]

I am hoping for a cold winter this year, extreme snow events mixed with some milder interludes - bliss! (then I woke up with my head in my cornflakes)... I think we may have a better shot at some good snow events this year though based on current projections from the more knowledgable, and I am looking forward to the roller-coaster that the MD thread becomes!

[Gavin Hannah]

I am hoping for a cold winter this year, extreme snow events mixed with some milder interludes - bliss! (then I woke up with my head in my cornflakes)... I think we may have a better shot at some good snow events this year though based on current projections from the more knowledgable, and I am looking forward to the roller-coaster that the MD thread becomes!

You've missed the train, it has already left the station lol.

[Jane Louise]

Can we please cut out the talk of other trolls on other forums after all this thread is about winter!! If you want to discuss other trolls please PM each other and keep this thread on topic!!

[P-M]

You've missed the train, it has already left the station lol.

haha damn can I have a refund please??

[Continental Climate]

Wow seems like all the optimism of a week ago has evaporated from netweather!! If anyone new to this forum were to stumble along they would give up on winter right now. It really is a rollercoaster on here sometimes and all because of a few poorish strat forecasts!!

Surely the strat isnt the be all and end all of weather forecasting now!! What about all the other signals which i was told were mostly positive, have they all been overriden by the TITAN stratos?

It will make for a boring winter if we are all huddled round the stratos thread relying on chio and GP to throw us a few crumbs of comfort.

Surely more to it than that!!!

[CanadaAl]

Can we please cut out the talk of other trolls on other forums after all this thread is about winter!! If you want to discuss other trolls please PM each other and keep this thread on topic!!

Apologies Jane, Will get back on topic. I'm wondering if it will be possible to see a repeat of october 2008 this weekend. I guess it's too soon to tell at the moment

[bobbydog]

what i said-

"people seem to be getting very hung up on this up-coming cold spell. if it doesn't happen, so what, it's still only october, not winter! i think its great that the weather is giving us a taste of winter this early. despite the (uncalled-for) panic about the strat, even that could change. some people are having a go at CC for his thoughts on winter. he doesn't base it on gut feeling, nor is he trying to spoil anyone's hopes. he could well be right, but as with any forecast, the forecaster wouldn't bet their life on it!

as it stands now, the signs for winter are not as good as they were a couple of weeks ago, however, as we all (should) know, the weather has the potential to change unexpectedly from the indicated signs. even in a zonal set-up with a + NAO, we can still end up on the right side of the cold!

anyway for the last few years, the weather has confounded the forecasters and i think it has a few surprises in store for us yet.... "

what he said (GP)-

"The profile of this QBO since its development last year mirrors a few in the last 50 years. There is a discernible difference in east QBOs away from solar minima in how they perpetuate across the equator and 10N, depending on thier longevity. For QBOs lasting this long, there is a trend towards light to moderate zonal wind increase in the autumn across 70N, followed by interuptions to this during November, December and January - 1968 being a classic example.

For snowcover, see above papers. The basic gist being:

- sudden expanse in snowcover develops a pool of cold air which acts like a brick wall to the zonal flow;

- tropospheric response is for frictional torques to develop 40N;

- poleward eddy flux follows as a response;

- anticyclones develop on poleward flank of the eddy, initiating Rossby Wave train and alteration of entire NH longwave pattern - Aleutian low the notable one;

- in turn the tropospheric longwave pattern re-inforces itself with wave breaking into the stratosphere and decceleration of the polar night jet."

from Russia with love- http://www.weather-f...=none&type=prec (i.e. potentially large increase in eurasian snow-cover)

in a nutshell- winter is very much still... ON!....

[P-M]

Wow seems like all the optimism of a week ago has evaporated from netweather!! If anyone new to this forum were to stumble along they would give up on winter right now. It really is a rollercoaster on here sometimes and all because of a few poorish strat forecasts!!

Surely the strat isnt the be all and end all of weather forecasting now!! What about all the other signals which i was told were mostly positive, have they all been overriden by the TITAN stratos?

It will make for a boring winter if we are all huddled round the stratos thread relying on chio and GP to throw us a few crumbs of comfort.

Surely more to it than that!!!

I agree CC, I think we know it plays a big part but there have been cold spells without a warm strat. Don't get me wrong I am not knowledgable with the strat and welcome the comments from Chino and GP as it helps me learn, but also don't think people should write the whole of winter off because it is not warming. As far as I have read we can still get some decent cold shots (someone feel free to correct me if I am way off here)

[weather is fun]

Sounds like there are some good noises been made over on the strat threat.

[John Badrick]

haha don't even get me started. I was checking in with the DM forum on a daily basis last winter and all i saw was "Winter will be mild, 15 degrees" and "Bartlett high, loving life!" it was just tedious trolling but i had to say, with immense frustration came immense entertainment. Some of the stuff posted you just knew was there to crave a responce. It's a shame really, also one of the reasons why im on this forum this time round

Oh and Skorge, does anyone remember him?

Yes he is on the DM forum this year, thinking he knows it all

[Summer Sun]

Some good post's from GP in the strat thread well worth a read

[Gavin Hannah]

Video blog from MetO today regarding forecasted Cold Spell this weekend.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/22/turning-colder-this-weekend/

[Barry12]

GP has just stated that the models are predicting average or above average stratospheric temperatures by the middle of November, which is good news. So there optimism from last week will be returning I'm sure

Met office forecasting a sunny day with highs of 6C here on Saturday

[nanu]

Don't worry, you live in London, it will be mild

Hmm but wasnt we the lucky ones back at the beginning of year for the snow events!!... anyway all i want is a repeat of either 1987/91 or actually 2010 run-up to xmas wasnt to bad.. but please lets just have for once a country wide snow event right smack bang on xmas!!.. that would make xmas just that special again.

[feb1991blizzard]

Here is chart of the day to cheer people up. A real boxing day **** up to celebrate this if it occured.

[Continental Climate]

for me personally the feb 91 freeze up is still the greatest snow event of my life, I know 09/10 and 10/11 may have been colder but for me neither of them beat feb 91, if we can get anything like that this winter i will be over the moon and preferably in feb as well as its been ages since that happened. Just out of interest i wonder what the strat was like in feb 91!! I think it may have been cold as looking at the archive charts there was quite a vortex over greenland/canada at the time!! Others should look too!! just proves it can be done with a powerful vortex over greenland!!

[Snowy782]

Met office forecasting a sunny day with highs of 6C here on Saturday

It's 7 for me

[Gavin Hannah]

Here is chart of the day to cheer people up. A real boxing day **** up to celebrate this if it occured.

WTF is going on there lol.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

wont cheer me up! pure fantasy chart that, will only be excited if its within 2 days

[Paul]

Just as a reminder the title of the topic is:

Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

Can we try to keep it vaguely on topic please

[Barry12]

Hmm but wasnt we the lucky ones back at the beginning of year for the snow events!!...

For a week in February temperatures could only manage 1 or 2C here, and we had heavy snow all day on one of those days..So not really

and also, did you get snow In April? no..didn't think so!

Edited October 22, 2012 by Barry95

[feb1991blizzard]

WTF is going on there lol.

An even better one, that would be too much to ask, two in the same winter.

Whatever you want to call them, SCAND HIGHS, 87,91 RELOADS, FEB1991BLIZZARDS, LONDON AND SOUTH EASTERN TRANSPORT NETWORK RASBERRY RIPPLERS, STONKERS, CORKERS, CRACKERS, RASPERS, RUN OUT OF SUPERLATIVES TO DESCRIBE THE BOTTOM ONE.

Edited October 22, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

[username home]

4 11 34 45 47 − 6 8

tomorrow night's winning euromillions numbers in case you were wondering!

[Gavin Hannah]

You forgot.... MODEL P*RN,