Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[feb1991blizzard]

From my week or so on this forum I have now come to the conclusion that all I want for Christmas is sudden stratospheric warming... My letter's off to Santa

I hope that we dont need one.

[fUnKy]

I hope that we dont need one.

hopefully not..but would seem to be the game changer from many views. Here's hoping for massive Siberian ice cover.

[Panayiotis]

Looking mild in the south east for the end of January!

Edit:Jet taking a trip to Africa and jet going backwards over north Scotland!

Edited October 22, 2012 by panayiotis

[feb1991blizzard]

Second go looking better on the 18z, first go is dead now, apart from scottish mountains, its this period we should be concentrating on now.

Here she comes!! 850s below.

#

Not gonna be a stonker, but best you can hope for in Oct!

Edited October 22, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Met4Cast]

Second go looking better on the 18z, first go is dead now, apart from scottish mountains, its this period we should be concentrating on now.

Here she comes!! 850s below.

#

Not gonna be a stonker, but best you can hope for in Oct!

My worry is that the second shot comes too soon - The first shot at the end of this week is still going to be significant for this time of year, especially for Europe with cold air really digging in here, that leaves very little cold pooling to our North for when the second shot comes in, at least going by the 18z anyway, a long way to go of course!

[feb1991blizzard]

My worry is that the second shot comes too soon - The first shot at the end of this week is still going to be significant for this time of year, especially for Europe with cold air really digging in here, that leaves very little cold pooling to our North for when the second shot comes in, at least going by the 18z anyway, a long way to go of course!

Could'nt agree more, it aint going to be a stonker no matter what, so i suppose some will say 'whats the point then?' especially those in the south, even 2008 only gave me an inch, if that, and thats the only time ive seen snow in oct ever.

Its just the usual tale, everything too east based.

Edited October 22, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Posted Today, 17:06

Since my research is strongly driven by timing, I have the perspective of trying to forecast what part of a winter may be coldest as well as the intensity -- in that case I come up with February as the most likely winter month to go below normal. December looks about a tossup or near normal, and January could be mild at least on balance. But if I were to look more in terms of probability of different circulation types developing given the current synoptics, I would have to say that the pattern looks primed for blocking to develop through the season, with a Greenland to Alaska trans-polar block appearing quite plausible. This has got to favour the appearance of colder weather in Europe at some point also.

Overall, would rate the chances of this winter being more severe than last at 65% and more severe than 2009-10 about 50-50. That leaves out 2010-11 which was very severe for the first half and very bland past early January. This winter could turn out to be a sort of mirror image of that, two different regimes with a retrograde blocking episode as the main driver of the variations.

My CET over/under predictions would be Nov 7.0, Dec 5.0, Jan 5.5 and Feb 2.0 ... so a good chance for a severe February in that outlook.

Just to say RJS and I hadn't really discussed winter but I see this too. Dec I have said will have something for eveyone and very much up and down...it puts us the edge and could turn out below average but up and down. Sustained cold pattern for latter part of winter.

Now moving on from this....GP stratos update...he aligns us to 1968 re the type of QBO etc etc. I would like to know if he means autumn of 68 leading to winter of 68/9. If so then look at these CET values.

67/8 Dec 4.2c, Jan 4.4c, Feb 1.9c and 68/9 Dec 3c, Jan 5.5c, Feb 1c.

BFTP

Edited October 22, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Met4Cast]

Could'nt agree more, it aint going to be a stonker no matter what, so i suppose some will say 'whats the point then?' especially those in the south, even 2008 only gave me an inch, if that, and thats the only time ive seen snow in oct ever.

Its just the usual tale, everything too east based.

Only time I've ever seen snow in October too! One good thing is that there's still no real sign or forecast for the Polar Vortex to become properly established on any of the models and weak heights look likely to remain across Greenland for a considerable time too, I don't think we could be in a better position moving into November. At this stage, I wouldn't be too surprised to see a stronger, re-newed cold blast sometime in the first half of November

[johnholmes]

Looking mild in the south east for the end of January!

Edit:Jet taking a trip to Africa and jet going backwards over north Scotland!

but its only a few days ago this model was showing a winter freeze we were told for much of the winter?

[feb1991blizzard]

Only time I've ever seen snow in October too! One good thing is that there's still no real sign or forecast for the Polar Vortex to become properly established on any of the models and weak heights look likely to remain across Greenland for a considerable time too, I don't think we could be in a better position moving into November. At this stage, I wouldn't be too surprised to see a stronger, re-newed cold blast sometime in the first half of November

I know its only FI, but the 12z did start to show a more organised vortex at the end.

Nothing 552 or higher in any of the business areas, however, my opinion is that there is now way we are going to go all the way into next year with constant +ve anomalies over GL, 2010 was a stormy autumn up until the spectacular ending.

[Met4Cast]

I know its only FI, but the 12z did start to show a more organised vortex at the end.

Nothing 552 or higher in any of the business areas, however, my opinion is that there is now way we are going to go all the way into next year with constant +ve anomalies over GL, 2010 was a stormy autumn up until the spectacular ending.

Good point, 18z completely gets rid of that idea

Waiting game as ever

[johnholmes]

I know its only FI, but the 12z did start to show a more organised vortex at the end.

And just how much reliabilty can be placed on one run that far out?

If you mean the area of lowest surface pressure the chart you refer to shows the lowest pressure to be south of Svalbard and east of Iceland!

Edited October 22, 2012 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

Good point, 18z completely gets rid of that idea

which is as good an example as possible to illustrate the futility of hanging on every GFS run at that time scale

[feb1991blizzard]

And just how much reliabilty can be placed on one run that far out?

Not very much John, i agree, but as this is the time that the vortex ususally strengthens, added to the fact that some people seem to think that the vortex wont even form before winter, just trying to be realistic thats all, i usually get classed as a cold ramper, but everything possible at this stage, plus the high over GL has subsided easily on a few runs lately and even ended up as a euro on at least 2 occasions.

[feb1991blizzard]

which is as good an example as possible to illustrate the futility of hanging on every GFS run at that time scale

Agreed john, i was only commenting on that run as an eg, more than anything trying to temper peoples expectations, its not worth writing off a months season on 1 run, not worth calling a 63 on 1 run either.

[johnholmes]

on the link below is the NOAA version, very similar to the ouputs this morning from ECMWF and GFS anomaly charts.

I can see very little sign of any major vortex anywhere on that chart let alone the Polar Vortex?

http://www.cpc.ncep....10day/500mb.php

The 8-14 version takes you out to Bonfire Night with the wave length not really suggesting much change for several days thereafter, possibly a week or more!

Edited October 22, 2012 by johnholmes

[feb1991blizzard]

on the link below is the NOAA version, very similar to the ouputs this morning from ECMWF and GFS anomaly charts.

I can see very little sign of any major vortex anywhere on that chart let alone the Polar Vortex?

http://www.cpc.ncep....10day/500mb.php

The 8-14 version takes you out to Bonfire Night with the wave length not really suggesting much change for several days thereafter, possibly a week or more!

6-10 dayer does look a stonker, lets hope it continues then!

[Met4Cast]

on the link below is the NOAA version, very similar to the ouputs this morning from ECMWF and GFS anomaly charts.

I can see very little sign of any major vortex anywhere on that chart let alone the Polar Vortex?

http://www.cpc.ncep....10day/500mb.php

The 8-14 version takes you out to Bonfire Night with the wave length not really suggesting much change for several days thereafter, possibly a week or more!

Looks very much like a Western based -NAO so for the UK weather probably unsettled but remaining on the cool side I'd imagine, generally what the GFS has been hinting at for a couple of days now

Edited October 22, 2012 by Daniel AKA WMD

[Barry12]

Met office seem to think November will a cold month, no Zonal weather insight!

[Relativistic]

It's going to be mild one this year...

Did someone call me?

You've learnt to use capital letters!

[Barry12]

GFS has upgraded the upcoming cold spell!

[Coast]

The possibility of some snowfall now firming up for higher ground in Scotland Friday night into Saturday, cold and wet in the area around the borders of Scotland/Northern England and just plain cold further South:

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

[latitude]

To be honest with you guys Im not looking at the UK snow threat for this cold spell, im looking at Scandinavia. Having Scandinavia under a substantial blanket of snow can have positive effects for our up and coming winter in terms of 'cold'. Not sure what you guys think?

Edited October 23, 2012 by latitude

[sebastiaan1973]

To be honest with you guys Im not looking at the UK snow threat for this cold spell, im looking at Scandinavia. Having Scandinavia under a substantial blanket of snow can have positive effects for our up and coming winter in terms of 'cold'. Not use what you guys think?

Well, in my opinion, it's too early to have any impact. It can melt quite easily in the next weeks.

[latitude]

Well, in my opinion, it's too early to have any impact. It can melt quite easily in the next weeks.

Im talking about areas of Scandinavia that can support snow from October to next spring. Some parts of Norway didn't see any snow last year until the middle of December.