Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[Aaron]

In southern areas of Scandinavia, winter does not start properly until mid December onwards, and then comes to an abrupt end in early March.

[latitude]

In southern areas of Scandinavia, winter does not start properly until mid December onwards, and then comes to an abrupt end in early March.

Having lived in Oslo, not seeing snow until the middle of December last year was very rare. Snow is common to low levels in November, and may disappear for a days at sea level but over higher elavations above 200m it never disappears.

[Coast]

Cold weather has come knocking at our door

by Laura Tobin

After a cloudy and mild start the weather will do a 180 degree change by the end of the week. Be prepared for the first cold snap of the season. Why is this happening when it’s been so mild? Cold air has never been far away, it’s been lurking to the north of Scotland for a while now. To our southeast the near continent have had some warm weather recently as is typical for the time of year. We have a band of cloud across the UK and this is the dividing line between the two air masses.

So our weather is on a knife edge. Over the last few days our winds have been southeasterly bringing in milder (and cloudier) air from Europe. Later on this week the wind will flip to a northerly bringing in the cold air that is waiting in the wings and whoosh bring on the artic plunge.

When will it change?

Thursday night into Friday will bring the dramatic change. Later on Thursday the winds will flip to a northerly, then a cold front will track south across the country allowing the colder air to rush in behind. It will move through England and Wales during the early hours of Friday and through the Channel Islands around Friday lunchtime, by which time we will all be in this colder air. If you follow the pressure lines you’ll see that they originate from the Artic, which will bring us this cold blast. For some we could have a drop in temperature of 8C in just 24 hours.

What is the forecast for us and will it snow?

For the next few days the weather will repeat itself, right through to Thursday the weather will stay cloudy and murky. There will be low cloud giving extensive hill fog. Mist and fog will develop inland and again be reluctant to clear through the day, this could again lead to travel disruption. With easterly winds eastern areas will be prone to the thickest cloud and outbreaks of rain and drizzle. Western areas (and perhaps southeast England) could see a few breaks and this will allow the temperatures to pick up a little, maybe to the high teens.

Temperatures will be typically 13-17C, above the seasonal average of 11-13C. This will push away all the cloudy claggy weather with crisp sunshine making a welcome return. During Friday we will see some wintry showers they will be confined to Northern Scotland and northeast England driven in on a cold northerly wind, which will gust to 20-30mph, giving a real wind chill. Wintry means a mixture of rain, sleet, snow and hail.

Through the weekend the risk of wintry showers increases for these northern areas. Snow will not settle to low levels by day, so don’t get those sledges out just yet, however we could see a covering across the hills in the north. The cold weather will last into the weekend, temperatures will struggle to rise to double digits, at best they’ll be between 6-9C by day and will plummet below freezing at night, this gives the risk of icy stretches where any showers have fallen. With the fog over the coming days and cold, potentially icy weather, keep checking the latest Met Office warnings:

http://www.itv.com/n...-for-cold-snap/

Edited October 23, 2012 by Coast

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed, Oslo and Helsinki are about as cold in an average October as northern England is in an average November. Then when we get around to November, the mean is well below typical British January values. Coastal fringes may be exceptions, and Stockholm is slightly warmer but even in Stockholm, Novembers are a lot colder than we are used to.

[Aaron]

Having lived in Oslo, not seeing snow until the middle of December last year was very rare. Snow is common to low levels in November, and may disappear for a days at sea level but over higher elavations above 200m it never disappears.

Never said snow never fell until that point, it certainly does, as it does in Stockholm and Helsinki, but winter doesn't get going properly (i.e more or less permanent snow pack) until December. And even then the snow may melt sporadically during the winter. The Nordic capitals are all very mild for their latitude, despite being much colder than the UK could ever hope for, and are prone to mild spells in winter.

Now I'm sure winter month like this is very much impossible in the UK.. ;o)

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Stockholm_Arlanda/12-2010/24600.htm

Edited October 23, 2012 by Aaron

[latitude]

Indeed, Oslo and Helsinki are about as cold in an average October as northern England is in an average November. Then when we get around to November, the mean is well below typical British January values. Coastal fringes may be exceptions, and Stockholm is slightly warmer but even in Stockholm, Novembers are a lot colder than we are used to.

Yes your right. I want to see those snow cover maps go very white between now and this time next week!

[AWD]

Another thing that I love about winter aside from snow is frost.

I love walking on a nice crisp air frost. Looks like many of us could get some air frosts in the coming week or two too. Looking forward to it.

[Suburban Streamer]

http://www.itv.com/n...-for-cold-snap/

didnt realise laura tobin had moved to itv!

[latitude]

didnt realise laura tobin had moved to itv!

I would!

[andymusic]

didnt realise laura tobin had moved to itv!

Yep - she's gone to the dark side!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Summer Sun]

didnt realise laura tobin had moved to itv!

Yes she joined on 3rd September when daybreak relaunched very suprised she joined them to be honest 3:30am starts every day won't be easy

[Aaron]

Yikes, I'm sure I saw her on the BBC not long ago.. I guess she was in the process of leaving. Don't like ITV or Daybreak so disappointed.

Edited October 23, 2012 by Aaron

[Met4Cast]

Yes she joined on 3rd September when daybreak relaunched very suprised she joined them to be honest 3:30am starts every day won't be easy

Agreed if she was working on a building site, but I think anyone with an interest in weather could get up at 3:30am to go on TV and forecast it. Look at us, when there's snow some of us don't sleep for 2 days waiting for me, that could just be me, though..

[Gavin Hannah]

Never liked the ITV weather. Found it to be rubbish in comparison to the BBC weather. And they still use symbols! How retro, and inaccurate.

[latitude]

Yikes, I'm sure I saw her on the BBC not long ago.. I guess she was in the process of leaving. Don't like ITV or Daybreak so disappointed.

Don't think she really cares, im sure she gets paid very well. Anyway what's her qualifications?

EDIT: Very well qualified, about time ITV had someone who knows what they are on about!

Edited October 23, 2012 by latitude

[Paul]

Errrm, winter discussion please

Plenty of other threads to discuss other topics, including ones about tv weather..

[Barry12]

'http://www.knmi.nl/e...agse/index.html

enjoyable runs today as things drift along with a cold theme-

The first of the winter- a snow spike in the ensembles from the control run..

Things slowly falling into place-

S'

Positive post from Steve Murr.

[Vertical Limit]

For a bit of fun, an Article from today's Irish Telegraph.

Donegal postman Michael Gallagher sends snow forecast

4 0 5Tuesday, 23 October 2012

Ireland should prepare for a harsh winter because snow is on its way, an amateur forecaster has warned.

Donegal postman Michael Gallagher has said he is "99 percent sure" there will be heavy falls before Christmas.

Mr Gallagher, who makes his predictions by studying plants and animals, has written a bestselling book, 'Traditional Weather Signs'.

"I have never seen as many berries on the trees in the mountains and the birds are singing very loudly in recent days," he said.

"I'm 99pc sure we'll have plenty of snow," he added.

Not sure what animal he studies, maybe it's the Groundhog!

Apparently though, he forecasted the last 2 winters in Ireland correctly - who needs science!

[sundog]

The donegal postman has become well known for his fairly accurate predictions in ireland the last few yrs. Back in the spring he predicted a poor summer.

[TonyH]

That was n't difficult for Ireland!

Edited October 23, 2012 by TonyH

[cheeky_monkey]

Had close to 15cm of snow overnight and is still coming down....now for all of those who says the UK should take note of places like Canada when it comes to dealing with snow...i left my house at 5.15am for work, not one single road had been cleared not even the main highways nor did i see a single snow plow on my drive to work...and this storm had been forecast for the last 4 or 5 days!

[Vertical Limit]

The donegal postman has become well known for his fairly accurate predictions in ireland the last few yrs. Back in the spring he predicted a poor summer.

I do hope he is correct again this year.

Edit: the article was in the Belfast Telegraph - my apologies.

[lorenzo]

Here are a couple of different images from 2010-11 Winter highlighting temp anomalies. Not your usual maps.

[Paul]

We have a thread on the go for the upcoming cold snap now:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74791-upcoming-cold-chilly-snap/

Please keep this thread to winter related items - eg December-Feb.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Had close to 15cm of snow overnight and is still coming down....now for all of those who says the UK should take note of places like Canada when it comes to dealing with snow...i left my house at 5.15am for work, not one single road had been cleared not even the main highways nor did i see a single snow plow on my drive to work...and this storm had been forecast for the last 4 or 5 days!

Any chance you could set up a live webcam so all of us in Blighty can get a fix of the white stuff