Typhoon Son-Tinh

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh has formed east of the Philippines, with sustained winds of 35kts. The storm has gradually acquired some deep convection near the LLC and some weak banding features. The environment ahead for Son-Tinh is marginally conducive for intensification. Waters are warm, shear is low to moderate but there is little evidence of outflow. Ridging to the north will keep Son-Tinh moving towards the southern Philippines where the cyclone should make landfall as a moderate or strong tropical storm. Land interaction will cause Son-Tinh to weaken before the storm emerges into the South China Sea.

[Somerset Squall]

Son-Tinh is moving through the southern Philippine islands currently on a northwesterly track. The frictional affects of the islands coupled with the hot pockets of water are serving to cause a significant blow up of convection over Son-Tinh's centre, worsening the rains affecting the area. Sustained winds have risen to 45kts. Outflow has improved vastly, and conditions look favourable for intensification right up until landfall in Northern Vietnam in a little more than 72hrs time. Son-Tinh is expected to become a typhoon shortly after leaving the southern Philippines.

[Somerset Squall]

Son-Tinh has moved out into the South China Sea. Son-Tinh is on the verge of becoming a typhoon, as sustained winds are now at 60kts. The storm has a well established central dense overcast feature with good banding features. Son-Tinh is expected to strengthen further under low shear and warm sea temps and is expected to become a cat 2 typhoon prior to landfall in Northern Vietnam. Flooding and wind damage is very likely in this area.

[Somerset Squall]

Son-Tinh has become a category 1 typhoon with sustained winds now at 65kts. Strong outflow and low shear should allow Son-Tinh to become a cat 2 prior to landfall in 36hrs time.

[Somerset Squall]

Son-Tinh has rapidly intensified to a high end cat 3 status, with sustained winds now at 110kts. Son-Tinh has benifitted greatly from enhanced outflow over the last 24hrs, resulting in the rapid strengthening. Son-Tinh is a fairly compact system with a well defined eye. The typhoon is not long away from landfall in northern Vietnam. The only saving grace is Son-Tinh is fairly small, because the winds will certainly pack a damaging punch now.

[Somerset Squall]

Son-Tinh has weakened to 90kts as it approaches Hanoi, Vietnam. The storm is expected to make landfall today and then push north then west as it rounds the western side of the subtropical ridge. There is a chance Son-Tinh could re-emerge into the Gulf Of Tonkin bit continued shear argues against re-strengthening if this occurs. Instead, Son-Tinh should dissipate at this time.

[Somerset Squall]

[Somerset Squall]

Son-Tinh is unravelling as it moves into SW China, and JTWC have issued their last advisory. Death toll and damage total for Vietnam is not yet clear, but the storm has killed 27 people in the Philippines last week.

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/288569/typhoon-son-tinh-batters-china.html