Tropical Cyclone Nilam

[Somerset Squall]

The second tropical cyclone of the 2012 North Indian Ocean cyclone season has formed just east of Sri Lanka. Sustained winds are currently at 40kts. Ridging to the north will steer 02B westward onto the coast of Sri Lanka in about 12hrs time according to JTWC, but IMD forecast the ridge to be a lot weaker allowing a sharp turn towards the northwest, missing Sri Lanka and making landfall south of Chennai, India. If the IMD solution is correct, 02B will be over water for longer and will strengthen more than the JTWC solution which takes 02B over Sri Lanka then southern India, a track largely over land. The upper level environment is mixed, with good upper level divergence (causing rising, unstable air and more convection) being offset by moderate to high shear. However, 02B seems to have fought off the shear pretty well today, so the amount of strengthening will be mostly governed by track IMO.

JTWC:

IMD:

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.pdf

Edited October 30, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

02B has become Tropical Cyclone Nilam, with sustained winds currently at 45kts. Some moderate shear continues to affect Nilam, placing the bulk of the convection west of the LLC. JTWC have joined IMD's forecast track ad Nilam has wobbled back eastwards today meaning a landfall in Sri Lanka is less likely, especially as a NW/SE orientated ridge is building northeast of TC Nilam. Moderate shear will prevent significant intensity gains but Nilam should strengthen a little more prior to landfall south of Chennai, India.

[Somerset Squall]

Nilam continues to strengthen as shear has eased a bit allowing more centralised convection to form. Sustained winds are now at 55kts. The cyclone is very close to landfall, which should occur within the next 6hrs. Convection is already spreading inland across eastern India.

[Coast]

Cyclone Nilam leaves Bangalore chilled to the bone

Incessant rain all through Wednesday intensified later in the night, uprooting 12 trees, inundating several roads and bringing traffic to a crawl in most parts of the city. The mercury, too, dipped to 18.3 degrees Celsius, sending citizens scurrying for woolens. The rain is likely to remain disruptive for some more days, though its intensity may ease now and then, the weatherman said.

The day dawned with light to heavy drizzle, and there was no let-off as it wore on. Office-goers waded through bumper-tobumper traffic in the evening. But the situation worsened after 9pm. Heavy rain all over the city brought traffic to a halt in several areas, including Intermediate Ring Road, Koramangala, Malleswaram, High Grounds and Kumaraswamy Layout. In a couple of hours up to 11.30pm, the city received 26mm rain. In all, the city recorded 37.2mm of rainfall, while at the airport it was 40.8mm.

Winds blew at a speed of 10 km/hr, bringing minimum temperature down to 18.3 degrees Celsius . Maximum temperature was 19.9 degrees Celsius , eight degrees below normal. The tree-falls were reported at Indiranagar, Fraser Town, Hennur Main Road, Jalahallli, Koramangala , Infantry Road, Rajajinagar, JP Nagar and BTM Layout.

THE FORECAST

"For the next two days, Bangalore will witness similar weather and there will be intermittent showers. Maximum temperature may not cross 21 degrees Celsius," said the duty officer at Met department.

"Cyclonic storm Nilam crossed the Tamil Nadu coast near Mahabalipuram and is expected to move towards the north-west into a deep depression. Under its influence, rain or thundershowers are expected in most places of south-interior Karnataka and a few coastal and northinterior places," said department director B Putanna.

GOOD 'OL WEATHER

Till dusk set in, the drizzle and the chill brought back memories of the city's signature weather. "It is a perfect evening to grab a bite of hot corn bhutta and a cup of masala tea. I left early from office just to enjoy a walk at Cubbon Park," said Sathish Mohan, a banker. Jyotsana Sheshadri, a student, bunked college to soak in the weather. "Who wants to attend classes on such a day? Thursday is a holiday and then follows the weekend. Hope this weather continues," said Jyotsana

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bangalore/Cyclone-Nilam-leaves-Bangalore-chilled-to-the-bone/articleshow/17042176.cms

Cyclone Nilam: India search for missing sailors

Rescue operations are under way in India's southern city of Chennai to find five sailors missing from an oil tanker that ran aground in a cyclone. Coast guard helicopters and boats are combing the sea for sailors from the Pratibha Cauvery. One of the crew members drowned after a boat carrying him and others capsized near Chennai, in Tamil Nadu state.

Seven people were killed when Cyclone Nilam struck the south-eastern coast with winds of up to 100km/h (60mph). More than 100,000 people have been evacuated. The rescue operation had to be suspended overnight because of bad weather, the BBC's Sanjoy Majumder reports from Chennai. The authorities say they are concerned because the vessel is carrying oil which could create a major problem if it spills out.

Roads and agricultural land across the coast have been badly damaged and power lines have been brought down in several areas by the cyclone struck. More than 100,000 people were evacuated ahead of the storm and shifted to higher ground, into schools and other temporary shelters. Many believe the prompt response of the authorities to Cyclone Nilam is one reason why its impact was minimised, our correspondent adds. Cyclone Nilam hit the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, and the town of Pondicherry on Wednesday night. Schools, colleges and cargo operations at the port in Chennai were shut. Fishermen in both states were warned not to venture out to sea.

In December 2011, more than 30 people died and many homes were damaged after a cyclone struck near Pondicherry. And in May 2010 at least 23 people died as a powerful cyclone caused widespread havoc across Andhra Pradesh

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-20164177