Wales Cymru Cold Spell Regional Discussion

[Snowangel-North]

Here you go...enjoy !

(link to the previous one here... http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72646-wales-cymru-autumn-weather-discussion/page__st__800 )

[Snowmadsam]

Cheers MK...

Carry On (not the films!) chatting in here

[J10]

The last thread lasted 8 months, here's hoping this one doesn't last as long.

We do get a bit excited when the snow starts to fall.

[keithlucky]

With so little solar activity at the moment ,it should mean that we should be going into a pretty cold spell of weather in the next few weeks if you believe that solar flares etc has effects on the world weather.

[whiskers]

has anyody heard what the met office has said in their end of november forecast? what is your opinion on it?

[mikeocarroll]

has anyody heard what the met office has said in their end of november forecast? what is your opinion on it?

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Nov 2012 to Friday 7 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. Rainfall amounts are more likely to be above the seasonal average rather than below, especially across England and Wales. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Towards the latter part of the period, there are some suggestions that conditions will turn drier with more in the way of sunshine, but also colder, with temperatures well below the seasonal average. This will give a greater risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1139 on Thu 8 Nov 2012

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So seems to be predicting drier and colder at the start of winter (high-pressure dominated?). Temps well below seasonal average is a bold statement compared to what is usually written, so interesting, but no hint of snow which is what many of us are looking for. I wouldn't put too much store by it, much as I rate Meto forecasters highly, predicting weather a month in advance is fraught with difficulties.

[andymusic]

nice new thread then - ready for the fun and games - no news really at the mo - models in windy, rainy autuminal mode - maybe some extremes of wind and rain - no extremes of cold showing just yet - but another 3 weeks to start of winter proper! - no real comments from Joe B right now - think he's been real busy with huriccane sandy and this recent second storm and the election! to bother himself with Europe - and anyway there's nothing really happening of any great extreme here right now - so need for any comments! - keep watching them models!

[Ukwoody]

Utterly fantastic! as I pulled back the curtains the reflective glare of the sun off the two feet of snow gave everything an earily peacefull look. The blackbirds and redwings were foraging in the white stuff searching for their food, whilst the only tracks to be seen were from last night foxes. I went outside and sank into the soft snow. but then I started to get cold and I couldnt move my left foot.

Sigh, then I awoke to realise the dog had got on the bed, pulled the duvet off me and was laid on my feet.

Posted especially to awake the excited up in Andy and Snowmad Sam,lol

Woody

[TonyH]

A look at the coming week's weather:

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4501-week-ahead-for-west-wales-and-the-midlands-monday-12th-to-sunday-18th-novmber-2012/

[welshwizard]

read yest on AOL main page that winter was coming in 3 weeks,it even said the goverment has been informed that this could be very very cold spell with snow ice etc,they compared it to the winter 2 yrs ago,that started in begin ov dec. and i heard on news this morn that there is plenty of salt stored for winter.maybe there is something in what i read,anyone else heard any news about a hard winter?

[Richard McCarthy]

Starting off cloudy with Drizzle or light rain in areas, North Wales will see a improvement during the day. Rain will start moving away, and will remain cloudy for the remainder of the day in North West Wales.

[keithlucky]

read yest on AOL main page that winter was coming in 3 weeks,it even said the goverment has been informed that this could be very very cold spell with snow ice etc,they compared it to the winter 2 yrs ago,that started in begin ov dec. and i heard on news this morn that there is plenty of salt stored for winter.maybe there is something in what i read,anyone else heard any news about a hard winter?

Plenty of press hype ,turning colder by the weekend according to TV this morning.plenty of confusion at the moment.Best to wait until Wednesday for details to firm up one way or another.

[mikeocarroll]

Temp 11.6C here at the moment, doesn't seem to be dropping, so a decent chance of a double figure min tonight, pretty mild for November and a mighty change from the first week of the month.

[andymusic]

ok - model update - GFS 18z (not a reliable run folks) - but and a BIG BIG but - amazing cold/snow - easterly scenario for the end of this month - a la 2010 - one to keep an eye on - need more model runs etc - but could be the start of something epic - once again!

edit:- and just seen James Bond "Skyfall" finally - excellent - just very sad at the end - won't say why - as some of you may not have seen it yet! -

[J10]

ok - model update - GFS 18z (not a reliable run folks) - but and a BIG BIG but - amazing cold/snow - easterly scenario for the end of this month - a la 2010 - one to keep an eye on - need more model runs etc - but could be the start of something epic - once again!

edit:- and just seen James Bond "Skyfall" finally - excellent - just very sad at the end - won't say why - as some of you may not have seen it yet! -

Just put this post in another thread

I would deal with GFS @ T+360.

But would be happier with it at T+36, and what's a 0 between friends.

[andymusic]

Just put this post in another thread

I would deal with GFS @ T+360.

But would be happier with it at T+36, and what's a 0 between friends.

only a trend/possible outcome - nothing concrete yet - but models have been mild and benign for a week or so now - so something to grab hold of - there does seem to be something brewing though - with blocking and positioning of highs modelled over Europe consistently recently - got to go with gut feeling for the moment and very little else - but I have a feeling something could be brewing! - more model runs required and other models need to come on board too.

[welshwizard]

just wondering,do these other weather guys like the ones who write about bad winters in 3 weeks etc have any secret information from machine satelites etc. as i have read in the past not from this country but from others they can predicit bad weather for quite a while before it comes and they often get just that,we find it difficult for 3 days,i know from last year its far more difficult in this country but do you guys think they have access to secret weather kit? anyway i myself would love a cold dry winter with a bit ov the white stuff,but please not rain and wind again

[mikeocarroll]

If you mean the type of people quoted in tabloid newspapers, then no,they don't have any secret information, they just make a guess and sometimes they are wrong and sometimes they are correct, a bit like if I say I make a prediction that a coin I flip will end up as heads; I'll be right sometimes but I;m equally likely to be wrong.

There are indications - various teleconnections (stratosphere, sea surface temperatures etc) and seasonal models that can give indications of what may happen weeks or even months in advance, but this is a nascent science and predications are notoriously unreliable.

[J10]

only a trend/possible outcome - nothing concrete yet - but models have been mild and benign for a week or so now - so something to grab hold of - there does seem to be something brewing though - with blocking and positioning of highs modelled over Europe consistently recently - got to go with gut feeling for the moment and very little else - but I have a feeling something could be brewing! - more model runs required and other models need to come on board too.

If you look at the current synoptic pattern it is looking rather ominous with a Bartlett style High over Europe and Polar vortex starting to takes it annual trip into Greenland.

However moving into the Medium Term/FI there are signs that Pressures are building over Greenland coupled with that the Jet continuing to be a long way south, with Channel lows being forecast and at least there are opportunities. Hopefully these will move into the more realistic time frame, so currently the improvement over Greenland start around T+180 and T+200, hopefully this will make it to T+100, by the weekend.

So I am looking at the this more at the moment, than the eye candy at the end of the run. As an example yesterday, there was a Scandi High, today a massive low over Scandi.

[andymusic]

models still fighting over cold/mild - I've still got the hunch that something cold is on it's way to us shortly - and while we wait for the models to settle down a little - here's a funny tweet from Joe B - Seriously, a weather nut has no time except for family and weather. My pinups when I was a kid were hurricanes.Wow check out the eye on that!!!!! lol

[welshgritter]

Any cold coming up guys and girls?

[J10]

Any cold coming up guys and girls?

Short to Medium Term no. (may turn a bit cooler for a while.)

Longer term look NWards and look at posts around 15-20, for a longer term outlook.

[TonyH]

From the highest reading of the month (13c) on Tuesday afternoon, to the coldest (-1.6c) this morning!

Area of low cloud and fog giving big contrasts in the weather this afternoon across Wales, for example a lovely, sunny and mild one for Aberystwyth while it remains cloudy and cool here, 6c max so far.

[TonyH]

Max 13c at sunny Trawscoed cf 7c here where the sun is now out but too late to affect temps.

[keithlucky]

Max 13c at sunny Trawscoed cf 7c here where the sun is now out but too late to affect temps.

Yes a cold raw today had to keep the coat on whilst working ,cold sunny fine, foggy NO.