The Alps 2012-13 Weather and Skiing Discussion Thread

[J10]

I thought now was a good time to start the usual winter Alps thread.

A couple of blogs from last winter

and

The ones towards the start of the season contain more about synoptic pressures, but I moved away from that towards the end of the season which would would you prefer.

I never get that much feedback, so I asking for that now.

Link to last years thread. http://forum.netweat...l__ alps__st__0

As usual comments are very much welcomed and if there are any resorts you are going to please include them here as we can concentrate around those times to those resorts..

Also do we want to use this as the thread to discuss the the Scottish Mountain position or should would that be best kept separate.

Edited November 10, 2012 by Jackone

[J10]

So far this winter, we have had a better start than last year, with quite a few snowfalls to resort level but this as thawed, there has been a few freeze thaw cycles at the upper slopes so this should start the building process.

Not going to do a full forecast here, but this is a quick look ahead to the coming week for the Alps.

So far this winter, we have had a better start than last year, with quite a few snowfalls to resort level but this as thawed, there has been a few freeze thaw cycles at the upper slopes so this should start the building process.

Not going to do a full forecast here, but this is a quick look ahead to the coming week for the Alps.

Sat 10 November - Low Pressure 980mb centred North of UK; High Pressure 1035mb centred Ukraine, so mild West/SW flow over the Alps. Freezing Levels generally peaking at 2500-3400m (highest generally in East)

Sun 11 November - The whole system moves slightly further east, Low Pressure 985mb centred North East of UK, High Pressure 1035mb centred Western Russia so mild West/SW flow over the Alps, but mildest air now further east. Freezing Levels generally peaking at 2000-2600m (Western Alps0 2600-3200m (Eastern Alps). locally 3800m in Northern Austria.

Mon 12 November - High Pressure from Russia now runs all the way to Northern Spain and into the Atlantic, with lower pressure further north. Wind direction more of an Easterly but brining in quite mild air, Freezing Levels generally peaking at 2200-2600m (North West) 2600-3000m South East).

Tue 13 November - High Pressure Centred Eastern Europe now covering all of Northern and Western Europe giving Easterly winds for the Alps. Freezing Levels generally peaking at 3300-3500m (Whole Alps)

Wed 14 November - High Pressure Centred Eastern Europe moves slightly further east, still covering all of Northern Mainland Europe giving South Easterly winds for the Alps. Freezing Levels generally peaking at 3600-3800m (Whole Alps)

Towards the Weekend - The High Pressure continuing to edge eastwards, with a Southerly to South Eastern flow over the Alps, so still very mild, Freezing levels max 3300-3500m. (Whole Alps)

Very much a very mild week, with the snow level retreating up the mountain, butter to have this weather now rather than in the middle of the winter proper.

Edited November 10, 2012 by Jackone

[carinthian]

Hi Julian,

We do read your reports in resort with interest. The tourist board were looking to open lifts before December 1st this year. However, this seems unlikey due to the change in weather pattern expected this week with a rise in high pressure. Although we have a snowbase, it is being eroded again with milder day time temps and freeze conditions at night. Our longer range forecast is for the colder conditions to return for the start of the season, but the recent developoment of high pressure over us is not a good sign in these parts.

Just of interest we will be taking a party to the little known resort of Rauris in the New Year. A little gem with good runs and wonderful views of the high peaks of the Hohe Tauren National Park.

C

[johnholmes]

The usual 2 weeks to Wengen in mid January. Currently the thaw you and Carinthian mentioned in full swing. Hopefully at altitude it will not be too serious and help build a decent base. Not sure if they expect to open the weekend of 8-9 or 15-16 December?

I like the synoptic type input Julian.

I would keep it very simple, the 1000-500mb synoptic maps, show the 850mb temperature charts if you can get a sutiable scale for Europe, the zero C isotherm and the precipitation charts.

Edited November 10, 2012 by johnholmes

[Staffordshire]

Whats trento like mid february?

[Kiwi]

Very much a very mild week, with the snow level retreating up the mountain, butter to have this weather now rather than in the middle of the winter proper.

Thanks Jackone I really enjoy this thread each winter....and I like the positive outlook re mild now rather than later in winter proper!

We're off to Russbach, Austria 22nd-29th Dec (Near Abtenau...Dachstein West ski area) It's low altitude 820m up to about 1620m , so always a gamble early season, though we've been in the past and luckily had snow down to village level.

I'm not too worried about the mild weather now but the developing high pressure does concern me. What is the likelihood/signal that this will persist into December? I've just been up the dry slope with my boys this morning ...and to be honest we'd like some of the white stuff for our Christmas hols!

re Scotland ...would it be a good idea to have a separate thread for this?...I go climbing a couple of times each winter in Scotland and as I'm sure you know the local variability in weather conditions from one range to another can be huge!..... cloud/visibility levels, wind etc etc. We will often alter our weekend plans because the weather conditions are so much better just 20 miles down the road. (This winter's plans are Ben Lawers Range in March and South Glen Shiel Ridge in late Feb).

[J10]

Thanks for all the comments, keep em coming.

As for Scotland there is a separate thread, run by ski freak, it depends on their wishes on this matter.

Very much a very mild week, with the snow level retreating up the mountain, butter to have this weather now rather than in the middle of the winter proper.

I meant better not butter.

Although the Foehn effect can go through snow like butter.

[johnholmes]

not much sign of the white stuff at village level but the first signs of the building of temporary spectator viewing for the end of the Lauberhorn race this morning; and it is snowing above about 5000ft.

Edited November 11, 2012 by johnholmes

[J10]

I have enclosed the following charts, and if you say their usefulness, that would be great.

Firstly I have attached large scale charts

1. This is the Freezing Level across Europe and beyond, this to me would be quite useful in getting general patterns for Temps.

2. Maybe this precipitation chart is good for patterns, but I think I would prefer the Alps centric one.

3. HGT 500 + Sea Pressure, to me this is a staple chart for synoptic analysis.

4. T850 + Sea Level Pressure, again this is good for synoptic analysis.

Followed by the Alps specific

5. This is the freezing level across the Alps specifically, and this is more detailed for the Alps, but not so good for patterns.

6. This is good as it gives the Precipitation concentrated over the Alps

My preferred charts would be 3 and 4 above - but perhaps slightly more centred over Europe, but still quite wide charts.

For the precipitation ones and freezing levels have them zoomed at a slightly different level, to 1,2 and 5-6, so closer than the wider ones but not so specifically centred over the Alps - similar to the area below.

With a wish list I think I would like a precipitation accumulated over a period similar to this chart.

Thoughts??

Edited November 11, 2012 by Jackone

[Gael_Force]

These maps are GFS Eurowide but there are a few more parameters relating to snow than currently available on WZ and MC.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/eurosfc.php

[carinthian]

Morning,

Not good here today. The same weather system that has brought flooding to Venice has brought dangerous conditions to Carinthia and South Tyrol with 48 hours of heavy rainfall with reports of over 100mm in places. The mild flow has also added rapid snowmelt into the river systems. Presently the snowline is 2500m. The only concillation is a massive snowfall taking place on the regional glaciers. The slow moving front is expected to move east out of the region by the end of today and a rise of pressure during the week. In the meanwhile the risk of flooding and landslides is high today, particularly to the south.

C

[Kiwi]

With a wish list I think I would like a precipitation accumulated over a period similar to this chart.

Thoughts??

Yes that would be a nice one to add to the wish list

Edited November 12, 2012 by Kiwi

[Radiating Dendrite]

Hi Julian,

I am off skiing to Bulgaria at the end of Feb.

What weather pattern is best for snow in that neck of the words? Any chart links that it would be worth me keeping an eye on?

Thanks!!!

[carinthian]

Morning,

Not good here today. The same weather system that has brought flooding to Venice has brought dangerous conditions to Carinthia and South Tyrol with 48 hours of heavy rainfall with reports of over 100mm in places. The mild flow has also added rapid snowmelt into the river systems. Presently the snowline is 2500m. The only concillation is a massive snowfall taking place on the regional glaciers. The slow moving front is expected to move east out of the region by the end of today and a rise of pressure during the week. In the meanwhile the risk of flooding and landslides is high today, particularly to the south.

C

Morning all,

Updated from yesterdays rainfall. Now the clouds are lifting and the pressure rises. We may see some sunshine later. Most of the runs have now been depleted down to the village and the snow retention level is about 2000m. Heavy snowfall totals have been recorded on the regions glacier with the Moltaler Glacier in our region having over 100cm of snow depth at 2500m plus. With the base washed away we could struggle to open this season on 1st December with the forecast of a high pressure zone, although cold conditions are expected at the end of the month , fingers crossed !

C

[Kiwi]

Morning all,

Updated from yesterdays rainfall. Now the clouds are lifting and the pressure rises. We may see some sunshine later. Most of the runs have now been depleted down to the village and the snow retention level is about 2000m. Heavy snowfall totals have been recorded on the regions glacier with the Moltaler Glacier in our region having over 100cm of snow depth at 2500m plus. With the base washed away we could struggle to open this season on 1st December with the forecast of a high pressure zone, although cold conditions are expected at the end of the month , fingers crossed !

C

Thanks for the updates Carinthian ...as you say fingers crossed! At least deep FI is keeping my hopes up.

What is being said by local forecasters re the current mild spell and prospects for the end of the month and the all important opening of the ski season?...My wife is already gleefully suggesting Christmas Market/shopping trips into Salzburg if we have a lack of snow (22-29 Dec)...A long way off that yet but I may become suicidal!

[carinthian]

Thanks for the updates Carinthian ...as you say fingers crossed! At least deep FI is keeping my hopes up.

What is being said by local forecasters re the current mild spell and prospects for the end of the month and the all important opening of the ski season?...My wife is already gleefully suggesting Christmas Market/shopping trips into Salzburg if we have a lack of snow (22-29 Dec)...A long way off that yet but I may become suicidal!

Yes, Kiwi a long way off yet. The longer term looks good for a cold spell prior to your visit, so snow must be on the cards. A trip into Salzburg is good at any time, but not in the ski-ing season !!

C

[Summer Sun]

As the European and North American skiing season starts up BBC Weather meteorologist Jay Wynne takes a look at the prospects for winter sports enthusiasts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20325941

[J10]

Hi Julian,

I am off skiing to Bulgaria at the end of Feb.

What weather pattern is best for snow in that neck of the words? Any chart links that it would be worth me keeping an eye on?

Thanks!!!

May as well be honest, not really that clued on Bulgaria skiing weather. However trying to extrapolate from the Alps, the further east, the more reliable the snow is to a lower level, that is why so many Austrian resorts tends to be lower than those in France etc. Of course you never guarantee snow. What resort are you going to and what altitude as this would make a big difference at the best setup.

[Radiating Dendrite]

May as well be honest, not really that clued on Bulgaria skiing weather. However trying to extrapolate from the Alps, the further east, the more reliable the snow is to a lower level, that is why so many Austrian resorts tends to be lower than those in France etc. Of course you never guarantee snow. What resort are you going to and what altitude as this would make a big difference at the best setup.

Hi Julian,

Borovets.

Base (village) is at 1350m and the top lift goes up to 2600m.

Conditions look fairly reliable when I am going looking at past averages - around 60-70cm bottom and 150cm at the top for the end of February.

Fingers crossed.

I am thinking of getting netweather extra - are there an good charts for me in there to look at? Probably a question for Paul?

[J10]

Hi Julian,

Borovets.

Base (village) is at 1350m and the top lift goes up to 2600m.

Conditions look fairly reliable when I am going looking at past averages - around 60-70cm bottom and 150cm at the top for the end of February.

Fingers crossed.

I am thinking of getting netweather extra - are there an good charts for me in there to look at? Probably a question for Paul?

Definitely go for Net Weather extra, it really has a lot of good charts to further analyse the weather especially NMM. In terms of Alps charts there are no more specific Alps charts available on NW Extra, but more for the UK and Europe generally.

1350m is quite a decent height, so I would imagine in that part of the world, much of the precipitation will be of snow, unless the weather is quite mild, so you would be looking for unsettled conditions as opposed to very cold ones

[J10]

I am not going to start the full blogs for a few more weeks. But I will do another one of my mini forecasts. Very noticeable that the forecast for today 17th is almost identical to that of 10th.

Sat 17 November - Low Pressure 985mb centred North of UK; High Pressure 1025mb centred Eastern Europe, Azores High, so +NAO pattern, so mild West/SW flow over the Alps. Freezing Levels generally peaking at 2400-3000m (highest generally in East)

Sun 18 November - The whole system moves very slightly further east, Low Pressure 985mb centred North of UK, High Pressure 1030mb centred Western Russia so mild West/SW flow over the Eastern Alps, winds more variable in direction further west. Freezing Levels generally peaking at 2200-2600m.

Mon 19 November - High Pressure centred over Russia 1030mb dominating conditions over Eastern Europe, Low Pressure over Atlantic and NW Europe, with Alps in between 2 weather patterns, so variable wind directions again over the Alps Freezing Levels generally peaking at 2200-2600m.

Tue 20 November - High Pressure centred over Russia 1040mb building a bit further west, dominating conditions over Eastern Europe and Eastern Alps Low Pressure over Atlantic and NW Europe, with Western Alps in between 2 weather patterns. Freezing Levels generally peaking at 2600-2800m.

Wed 21 November - High Pressure centred over Russia 1035mb still dominating conditions over Eastern Europe and Eastern Alps Low Pressure over Atlantic and NW Europe, with Western Alps in between 2 weather patterns. More than a hint of a stuck pattern with mild weather continuing to dominate. Freezing Levels generally peaking at 2700m (NW) - 3100m (SE).

Towards the Weekend - Only very slow progress, with the low pressure finally moving a bit more east towards the Alps, and finally introducing some cooler weather with more of a Polar Maritime flow from the NW just in time for the weekend. Freezing levels max 2400-3000m (Thur) 1800 -2400 (NW to SE Fri) 1400m-2000m (Saturday)

Precipitation - Most of the time, dry over the Alps, but some moderate precipitation for SE Italy/ far South Austria, on Sunday night not Monday Afternoon. Light precipitation NW areas early Wednesday and Thursday, before more front pushes south east over Alps on Friday, this is 7 days away, but if this happens snow down to reasonable levels.

Total Precipitation next 120 hours.

So in Summary - Mostly Dry, mild but not as mild as last week, with very much a stuck weather pattern as per the charts below (Wednesday)

Edited November 17, 2012 by Jackone

[J10]

Alps / Europe Past week

Over the past week, the pattern has been very similar , with low pressure around the UK, which has given the very wet weather and flooding, High Pressure to the East, with the Alps being mostly mild with generally southerly winds.

http://www.snow-fore...views/tips_full At this stage, the main resorts being features are the glaciers so the mild weather does not have the impact lower down the slopes.

Going Forward

It cannot have escaped anyone's notice that Northern Blocking has been forecast toward next weekend, the big questions are is it still the case, and what impact does this have for the weather going forward. The charts shown were from Saturday 06Hz, and this has underplayed the cold potential compared to some other charts.

Daily Summaries

Sat 24 November - Low Pressure 985mb centred over Iceland and another low pressure centred West of France, set to push in over the UK over next 24-48 hours. North of UK; High Pressure 1030mb centred Western Russia, the Alps again in between weather systems, so mild West/SW flow over the Alps.

Sun 25 November - High Pressure building over Greenland and Azores, forming a block,two low pressure systems around UK, giving very unsettled conditions here. High Pressure 1030mb centred Western Russia,with Highish Pressure over much of mainland Europe. Light winds generally, but staying mild due to residual airmass.

Mon 26 November - High Pressure building over Greenland and Azores, forming a block, a low pressure system over South Eastern UK, so remaining unsettled over UK, this gives Northerly winds for UK, and southerly/South Westerly winds for Alps on South Eastern flank of Low Pressure. Further North East into Europe very cold with High Pressure pushing into Arctic from Russia.

Tue 27 November - The pattern moves east, with low pressure east of UK, the Azores High nudging in just west of UK, the links up with Highish pressure over Greenland to give a tenuous block. Low Pressure generally for much of Europe, with a east west split over Alps, cooler the further west you are with Northerly winds, but milder further east with southerly winds. High Pressure continues to build on European side of Arctic.

Wed 28 November - The low pressure previously to East of UK now moves South East, and is centred over Northern Italy, this gives colder weather for the Alps with North to North East winds, but still not massively cold. High Pressure over Greenland and European side of Arctic, Further west low pressure into the Atlantic, and the Azores High back in its normal place.

Outlook - A lot of uncertainty after this point. some models go for North Easterly winds to bring colder weather over The UK and North Western Europe, but his largely depends on the low pressure in the North Atlantic not interacting with the one over Europe.

I have attached 2 charts one from the 00Hz run, with goes with the not interaction route, and the 06Hz which goes with the interaction route.

Alps Weather

Sat 24 November - Mostly Dry, with Freezing Levels in range 2400m-2700m

Sun 25 November - Patchy precipitation at times over western areas, with Freezing Levels in range 2200-2400 (west) 2600m-3000m (east)

Mon 26 November - More General Precipitation for French Alps, and western parts of Switzerland Germany for the morning, becoming patchier in the afternoon but extending into most of Switzerland

with Freezing Levels in range 2200-2400 (west) 2600m-3000m (east)

Tue 27 November - A cold front moving into western areas overnight, with very heavy precipitation for Eastern France, the far west of Italy, and also fringing SW Germany and Western Switzerland. Snow Levels (1400m on west of front to 1800m (east). By noon, the front has moves east, with the heaviest of precipitation bordering France and Italy and as far east as Milan, and as far north as Wengen. Snow Levels 1600 (w)-2000m (e). Freezing levels generally 1200-1400 west of front, 1800-2200 on front, and 2600-2800 (eastern Austria)

The precipitation continuing right through day, by midnight, heavy precipitation over much of Italy, and Southern Switzerland with some precipitation also for French Alps, rest of Switzerland, S Germany, and W Austria, Snow Levels, 1000-1400m France, 800-1600m Switzerland (NW-SE), 1000-1400m Germany (W-E), 1200-2000m Italy (NW-SE)

Wed 28 November - The Precipitation continuing through much of Wednesday, with only NE Alps missing out, the heaviest precipitation over Italy and fringing southern Austria, and Switzerland, Snow Levels 800-1400m Western Alps to over 2000m Eastern Alps.

Outlook - Further precipitation seems likely from the low pressure in the area, and latest indications are for Freezing Levels to fall significantly to around 700m-900m North West Alps, and 1200-12600m elsewhere, but this will depend on the boundary on any low pressure system. A lot of uncertainty in the forecast at this point though.

Summary - After recent mild weeks there is the potential for heavy snowfalls for the Alps, initially more especially for western higher slopes, but probably becoming more widespread to at least medium slopes by mid next week,

Edited November 24, 2012 by Jackone

[johnholmes]

The outlook for most Alpine resorts is quite good with 20-40cm of snow predicted for my area of interest, or that is my interpretation, looking at the charts being shown for next week?

Along with a marked fall in zero C level.

the link below shows what its like at the start of the Lauberhorn ski run, about 10-15cm of snow at the moment and also the building of one of the spectator stands at the finish, snowless for the time being.

http://www.lauberhorn.ch/en/index.php?langId=2?langId=2

Edited November 24, 2012 by johnholmes

[J10]

The outlook for most Alpine resorts is quite good with 20-40cm of snow predicted for my area of interest, or that is my interpretation, looking at the charts being shown for next week?

Along with a marked fall in zero C level.

With the low pressure over the Alps for the mid part of next week, and the reducing freezing level, I tend to agree.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Wengen/6day/mid

By the way John do you like the format, I have ties to go a lot more on the synoptic especially this week, but does that get in the way of the message.

[johnholmes]

I think the format is fine Julian