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The Alps 2012-13 Weather and Skiing Discussion Thread


J10

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Well +10 850s are being shown over Borovets at some points next week on the GFS :(

Good job I am not going until the end of February - not great though as it could eradicate a decent 70cm base which has built up over the last 10 days.

Hopefully the GFS will reduce the 850s down to 0-5c on future runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

My next update will be tomorrow, and I will do a special on Russbach, if you promise to bring some snowy pics back.

Thanks Jackone, it's a deal.

Should be plenty of snowy pics from up the mountain...but not so sure whether my artistry with photoshop will manage to hide slushy scenes from the village!

Look forward to your update.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

One question - this may seem a bit of a silly one though!

When recording snow depth on piste, is this the depth on an actual run? One that has had the old piste basher going up and down it?

I would presume that off piste snow would be a greater depth as it has not been compacted?

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Posted
  • Location: Cockermouth, Cumbria - 47m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow
  • Location: Cockermouth, Cumbria - 47m ASL

Some good looking snow depths in the Alps hope its as good when i go to Avoriaz in January and Courchevel in March.

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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

One question - this may seem a bit of a silly one though!

When recording snow depth on piste, is this the depth on an actual run? One that has had the old piste basher going up and down it?

I would presume that off piste snow would be a greater depth as it has not been compacted?

As far as I'm aware sadly it's the off piste depth

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Posted
  • Location: newent glos. 50 metres asl
  • Location: newent glos. 50 metres asl

Cheers kiwi i was wrong mate.not long now till my holiday to cervinia 12th jan. Lets hope things dont get to warm in the alps.

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The latest Ski Blog has been issued, I am away towards next weekend, so the next full blog will be issued in the new year. However there will be updates before Christmas.

http://forum.netweat...-december-2012/

By the way the red mark on the 22 Dec Freezing Levels charts is rough where Russback is.

I have slightly changed the forecast for Christmas Day from

However it is set to turn much colder on Christmas Day and at this stage fresh snowfalls are expected in many areas to

However it is set to turn much colder on Christmas Day and at this stage fresh snowfalls are expected in many areas, especially over the medium/higher slopes.

There is always doubt with forecasts but how cold it will be seems a doubt to me at this stage, especially after seeing the 12Hz run being slightly milder than the 06Hz one.

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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

Cheers kiwi i was wrong mate.not long now till my holiday to cervinia 12th jan. Lets hope things dont get to warm in the alps.

Cervina .....always fancied going there. A much overlooked skiing area amongst the Brits I think.

I'll be interested to hear your thoughts ...enjoy, and fingers crossed for some cooler weather!

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Posted
  • Location: newent glos. 50 metres asl
  • Location: newent glos. 50 metres asl

Yes been there once before. The town is not that atractive. But the snowboarding was fantastic, huge wide open runs that go on for miles. Great for intermediates and beginers. The link with zermatt was open all week when we were there. What a place that is....plus cervinia town is at 2050 meters . So i think the snow is pretty reliable. Cant wait to get there.........

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Posted
  • Location: Twickenham or roving in Alps
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Twickenham or roving in Alps

Next lot of bad weather is well and truly underway in the northern and western Alps, thanks to the warm front. Started as snow to about 1000m in the French Savoies, a bit lower even in the the Swiss Valais, but I expect the rain/snow limit to rise rapidly now and reach 2000m or higher later this evening. Sunday and Monday will be exceptionally mild, esepcially in the west, before cooler air makes a comeback later on Christmas day.

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Posted
  • Location: Twickenham or roving in Alps
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Twickenham or roving in Alps

And now the Foehn. Temps could reach 16 degrees in some northern Austrian valleys tomorrow (20 even according to Meteosuisse in some Foehn affected Swiss valleys). Better news mid-week but still not particularly cold...

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Thanks for the nice comments, seeing as I am doing these forecasts, and snow reports it makes sense to focus them on places people are going to, if you are going on holiday and want your resort added, just mention it in this thread.

Latest Resort Updates

Taken from http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx on 18 Dec. Previous Update 15 Dec



Resort (Country), Lower/Upper Slopes, Last Snow, Snow last 7 days, Piste, Off Piste

Wengen (Switzerland) 40cm/100cm [ 55/110cm], 10 cm on 17 Dec, 20cm (L7), Excellent, Powder
Avoriaz (France) 160cm/200cm [ 130/ 160cm], 34 cm on 18 Dec, 69cm (L7), Powder, Powder
Bareges-le mongie (Fra) 80/120cm [80/120cm], 10 cm on 5 Dec, 0cm (L7), Excellent, Tracked
Fitzmoos (Austria)* 65cm/75cm [ 70 / 90 cm], 5 cm on 18 Dec, 25cm (L7), Fresh, Fresh
Kitzbuhel (Austria) 50cm/80cm [ 40 / 90 cm], 10 cm on 18 Dec, 10cm (L7), Fresh, Fresh
Borovets (Bulgaria) 35cm/55cm [ 40 / 55 cm], 2 cm on 15 Dec, 2cm (L7), Good, Varied

*10 miles from Russbach

Most resorts seem to have fresh snow over the past couple of days, replenishing snow amounts, after a thaw over the weekend.

Looking at freezing level forecasts this rising towards the end of this week reaching 1500m-1800m in west, always much colder in east, Although chance at weekend of rising to 2000-3000m across the Alps, which would have thawing implications.

Latest Resort Updates

Taken from http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx and http://www.netweathe...ction=ski;sess= on 23 Dec. Previous Update 18 Dec




Resort (Country), Lower/Upper Slopes, Last Snow, Snow last 7 days, Piste, Off Piste, Last Reported Date

Wengen (Switzerland) 60cm/110cm [40cm/100cm], 10 cm on 21 Dec, 55cm (L7), Soft, Heavy (23 Dec)
Avoriaz (France) 180/200cm [160cm/200cm], 20 cm on 21 Dec, 63cm (L7), Good, Varied (23 Dec)
Bareges-le mongie (Fra) 80/120cm [80/120cm], 10 cm on 5 Dec, 0cm (L7), Excellent, Tracked (21 Dec)
Filzmoos (Austria)* 65cm/85cm [ 65 / 75 cm], 10 cm on 21 Dec, 25cm (L7), Fresh, Fresh (21 Dec)
Kitzbuhel (Austria) 50cm/80cm [ 50 / 80 cm], 10 cm on 21 Dec, 20cm (L7), Excellent, Fresh (23 Dec)
Borovets (Bulgaria) 35cm/55cm [ 35 / 55 cm], 2 cm on 15 Dec, 0cm (L7), Good, Varied (21 Dec)

Couchavel (France) 106cm/185cm [n/a], 0cm [L3], Snow Type : Machine (23 Dec)

Edited by Jackone
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And now the Foehn. Temps could reach 16 degrees in some northern Austrian valleys tomorrow (20 even according to Meteosuisse in some Foehn affected Swiss valleys). Better news mid-week but still not particularly cold...

The dreaded Foehn, not good news.

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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

The dreaded Foehn, not good news.

Incredible day...like March, warm,blue sky, sun and snow. Beats soggy hampshire! Snow still good but icy in the morning......at least it's falling below 0c each night despite what gfs might be saying. I would post photos but my iPad isn't cooperating.

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Of course, I keep thinking about the long term conditions and not the on the piste conditions. Glad you are enjoying, not jealous in slightest. rofl.gif

As for rest of week (Russbach), a bit colder, 7cm of snow to mid level, Tom night into Wednesday, rain at resort level,

10cm more snow Thursday Night to Friday, should be snow to resort level.

I found this article last week explains why it freezes under high pressure in the Alps even when the freezing level is well above the snow level.

http://www.snow-fore.../faq#fltempdesc

Radiometric cooling ? a fix to overestimated temperatures

Several members of the site have commented that in some parts of the World our forecast night time temperatures are higher than actually experienced. The reason for this is that we use "free-air" temps. By interpolating down we treat the ground like it's not there. In reality, at night, snow and dry sand radiate very large amounts of heat energy and so really close to the ground, say a few 10's of m, it can get much colder than the free-air temp, especially when it is clear and wind is light.

So, how to fix it and make our temperature values more realistic?!

Our weather model has a nominal "surface". We have back-calculated this reference

elevation for the whole World and then used our method to predict the temperature on this surface (i.e the free-air temp). We then compare this with the weather model "surface temp" (the temperature at the reference level, corrected for radiometric effects). The difference of modelled surface-temperature MINUS free-air-temp-at-this elevation shows that over the sea there is almost no difference (AS EXPECTED ? since the sea is a great insulator).

Over part of the N Hemisphere, where the sun is shining (and light winds) the effect is positive, by 1 to 3 degs e.g. California, Alaska. Where it is night, especially where there is snow and/or sand it is strongly negative (-6 in S Africa, -2 in W OZ -4 in Andes (sun has

set) -12 in parts of Antarctica.

We have calculated this discrepancy for every period and applied it to our forecasts – When it is cloudy and/or windy it will make no difference. Otherwise it will add some degs in the day (recall those sunny days when it can be warmer in the Alps than we predicted) and subtract some at night, sometimes as much as 10degs (the snow in the high Alpine resorts freezes every night when it is clear – even when the free-air freezing-level is at 5000m).

Edited by Jackone
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No full forecast this weekend, but a brief summary.

30 Dec

post-213-0-51458300-1356867987_thumb.jpg

31 Dec

post-213-0-56975700-1356867974_thumb.jpg

1 Jan

post-213-0-76800700-1356867961_thumb.jpg

2 Jan

post-213-0-19971400-1356867949_thumb.jpg

3 Jan

post-213-0-22920200-1356867936_thumb.jpg

Definitely a trend for pressure to build over NW Europe and over the Alps, over 1020mb for now until a brief NW on Tuesday, However High Pressure ridging in from midweek with pressure rising over 1040mb. The High Pressure means that precipitation over the Alps is also at a premium, looking dry apart a brief period late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Daily freezing levels and Alps Daily Summary

Sun

post-213-0-03466500-1356869354_thumb.jpg

1200 NW, to SE 2200m

Mon

post-213-0-81600200-1356869342_thumb.jpg

1600 to 2200m generally

Tues

post-213-0-45020800-1356869336_thumb.jpg

As mentioned about the precipitation charts look dry apart from a cold front pushing SE Monday into Tuesday, Snow levels falling to around 1000m.

1200m to 1600 South and West, 2200 North East, colder after cold front pushes SE.

Wed

post-213-0-01450700-1356869330_thumb.jpg

800m (N) to 1400m (S)

Thur

post-213-0-65237600-1356869323_thumb.jpg

Variable

Outlook Dry and mild over weekend with Freezing level returning to above 2000m.

Edited by Jackone
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Latest Resort Updates

Taken from http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx and http://www.netweathe...ction=ski;sess= on 23 Dec. Previous Update 18 Dec




Resort (Country), Lower/Upper Slopes, Last Snow, Snow last 7 days, Piste, Off Piste, Last Reported Date

Wengen (Switzerland) 60cm/110cm [40cm/100cm], 10 cm on 21 Dec, 55cm (L7), Soft, Heavy (23 Dec)
Avoriaz (France) 180/200cm [160cm/200cm], 20 cm on 21 Dec, 63cm (L7), Good, Varied (23 Dec)
Bareges-le mongie (Fra) 80/120cm [80/120cm], 10 cm on 5 Dec, 0cm (L7), Excellent, Tracked (21 Dec)
Filzmoos (Austria)* 65cm/85cm [ 65 / 75 cm], 10 cm on 21 Dec, 25cm (L7), Fresh, Fresh (21 Dec)
Kitzbuhel (Austria) 50cm/80cm [ 50 / 80 cm], 10 cm on 21 Dec, 20cm (L7), Excellent, Fresh (23 Dec)
Borovets (Bulgaria) 35cm/55cm [ 35 / 55 cm], 2 cm on 15 Dec, 0cm (L7), Good, Varied (21 Dec)

Couchavel (France) 106cm/185cm [n/a], 0cm [L3], Snow Type : Machine (23 Dec)

Time for the updates just before the new year.

Wengen (Switzerland) 30cm/164cm [60cm/110cm], 10 cm on 28 Dec, 25cm (L7), Excellent, Varied (31 Dec)
Avoriaz (France) 170cm/210cm [180/200cm], 1cm on 29 Dec, 38cm (L7), Excellent, Varied (31 Dec)
Filzmoos (Austria)* 80cm/90cm [65cm/85cm], 10 cm on 28 Dec, 10cm (L7), Excellent, Varied (31 Dec)
Kitzbuhel (Austria) 40cm/115cm [50cm/80cm, 10 cm on 28 Dec, 10cm (L7), Excellent, Varied (31 Dec)
Borovets (Bulgaria) 40cm/90cm [35cm/55cm, 15 cm on 22 Dec, 0cm (L7), Good, Varied (31 Dec)
Couchavel (France) 104cm/175cm [106cm/185cm], 0cm [L3], Snow Type : Machine Grommed (31 Dec)

Edited by Jackone
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Posted
  • Location: Camberley, Surrey
  • Location: Camberley, Surrey

Hi Jackone, any chance we can get Livigno added to the list & forecast? Looks like I might be heading there next month.

Cheers!

Edited by stuboy
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