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December CET (2012/13 Competition)


J10

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A bit early I know.

Is everyone happy with the pts deductions rules of last year, and its everyone happy in happy the Met Office CET value as well .

Comments welcomed.

Also you can use this thread to enter your guesses, but I would wait a while.

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Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

Yeah pts deductions rules are okay and personally I am happy to use the Met Office CET value and -0.2c... biggrin.png

Edited by Snowstorm1
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I'll go for 4.1c

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

I'll leavei t for now

Edited by Aaron
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I think you should get more points if you correctly predict a more extreme CET. After all this is more difficult to predict. The greater the deviance from the norm, the greater the points.

I'm happy to see things stay as they are...

Edited by Rybris Ponce
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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

-50C.

Only joking, it's too early at the moment to take a guess so will do it at a later stage.

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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

1.0ºC for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

I shall go for 6.0

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

CET averages and extremes

12.9 ... warmest daily mean, 12th 1994

8.1 ... warmest Decembers 1834 and 1974

7.7 ... third warmest 1852

5.1 ... average for 1971-2000

4.7 ... average for 1961-90

4.6 ... average for 1981-2010, also 1901-2000

4.3 ... average for 2001-2011

4.1 ... average for 1659-2011

4.0 ... average for 1801-1900

3.9 ... average for 1701-1800

3.4 ... average for 1659-1700

-0.5 ... third coldest 1676

-0.7 ... second coldest 2010

-0.8 ... coldest December 1890

-10.8 ... lowest daily mean 25th 1796

_____________________________________

The cold December of 2010 left a mark, it is unusual in the other months to find 1981-2010 or 2001-2011 below other earlier periods.

The mean December CET temperature for each date ranges from 5.12 on the 5th to 3.40 on the 26th (all data 1772-2011) ... in the more recent 30-year period 1981-2010, the highest daily mean was 6.26 on the 5th, and the lowest was 3.75 on the 20th. In that same period the coldest day of any month was 14 Feb at 3.36 followed by 7 Jan at 3.45 C.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

two fat ladies...8.8c

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

A bit early I know.

Is everyone happy with the pts deductions rules of last year, and its everyone happy in happy the Met Office CET value as well .

Comments welcomed.

Also you can use this thread to enter your guesses, but I would wait a while.

Is there a page with the full rules on Jackone, if so could you please link me to it, i have never seen one, even though i have had a go many a time!, i am aware of the deductions for being late, but do you get bonus points if your correct with an early guess? if not, i cannot understand for the life of me why people are guessing on the 13th Nov!

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Posted
  • Location: .Hackenthorpe south east Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: winter.
  • Location: .Hackenthorpe south east Sheffield

2.9 thats my offer

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

PDO still negative.

QBO still easterly.

MEI still neutral.

Little reason to think much will change so i will go for 4.1C, 0.5C below the 1981-2010 average.

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Is there a page with the full rules on Jackone, if so could you please link me to it, i have never seen one, even though i have had a go many a time!, i am aware of the deductions for being late, but do you get bonus points if your correct with an early guess? if not, i cannot understand for the life of me why people are guessing on the 13th Nov!

Never really been one.

Obviously the aim is to get the CET spot on.

The scores are effectively ranked on the following 4 criteria.

1. Each Month how much each person is out is calculated. and an average error is calculated.

2. Each month, every entry is ranked depending on how far they were out, and In the case of a tie, the person who made the entry first wins. The person who finishes is given 100pts, and last 1 pt.

and again the average position is calculated.

3. Accuracy points are are awarded monthly on the basis of

5=0.0c out

3=0.1c to 0.2c out

1=0.3c to 0.5c out

0=0.6c out and

1= if your prediction is milder 1981-2010 average and this was the case and vice versa.

Scores are ranked on Total Accuracy points.

4. Scores are also ranked on Average Accuracy Points.

These 4 rankings are combined with a given weighting factor and any late entries deductions are taken off.

Late Entry Deductions

1 day late = -10 pts

2 days late = -20 pts

3 days late = -30 pts

This gives a total score for each competitor and the highest scores wins.

Simples. rofl.gif

Suffice to say, much of this is automated, and Excel is my friend is this regard.nea.gif

Oct 2012 CET.xls

You really need to look a the spreadsheet to make sense of my above comments. (and even then it may not work)

Re the comment about the benefits of entering early, thee really are minimal.

Edited by Jackone
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

8.5C

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

a bit too early guys but with all the signals accept the strat for the time been pointing to a cold dec im going for 5.5c.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Never really been one.

Obviously the aim is to get the CET spot on.

The scores are effectively ranked on the following 4 criteria.

1. Each Month how much each person is out is calculated. and an average error is calculated.

2. Each month, every entry is ranked depending on how far they were out, and In the case of a tie, the person who made the entry first wins. The person who finishes is given 100pts, and last 1 pt.

and again the average position is calculated.

3. Accuracy points are are awarded monthly on the basis of

5=0.0c out

3=0.1c to 0.2c out

1=0.3c to 0.5c out

0=0.6c out and

1= if your prediction is milder 1981-2010 average and this was the case and vice versa.

Scores are ranked on Total Accuracy points.

4. Scores are also ranked on Average Accuracy Points.

These 4 rankings are combined with a given weighting factor and any late entries deductions are taken off.

Late Entry Deductions

1 day late = -10 pts

2 days late = -20 pts

3 days late = -30 pts

This gives a total score for each competitor and the highest scores wins.

Simples. rofl.gif

Suffice to say, much of this is automated, and Excel is my friend is this regard.nea.gif

You really need to look a the spreadsheet to make sense of my above comments. (and even then it may not work)

Re the comment about the benefits of entering early, thee really are minimal.

Cheers.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

-0.2C is my entry.

One of the coldest December's on record, akin to December 2010. No respite from the cold until January.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

4.5C please

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