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December CET (2012/13 Competition)

J10

By J10
in Spring Weather Discussion

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J10 Accomplished

J10

Posted
Posted

A bit early I know.

Is everyone happy with the pts deductions rules of last year, and its everyone happy in happy the Met Office CET value as well .

Comments welcomed.

Also you can use this thread to enter your guesses, but I would wait a while.

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Snowstorm1 Apprentice

Snowstorm1

Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
    • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
    Posted

    Yeah pts deductions rules are okay and personally I am happy to use the Met Office CET value and -0.2c... biggrin.png

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    AWD Veteran

    AWD

    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
    • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    Posted

    I'll go for 4.1c

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    Aaron Community Regular

    Aaron

    Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
    • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
    Posted

    I'll leavei t for now

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    Methuselah Maestro

    Methuselah

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
    • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted

    I think you should get more points if you correctly predict a more extreme CET. After all this is more difficult to predict. The greater the deviance from the norm, the greater the points.

    I'm happy to see things stay as they are...

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    Relativistic Seasoned

    Relativistic

    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
    • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    Posted

    -50C.

    Only joking, it's too early at the moment to take a guess so will do it at a later stage.

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    Polar Gael Rising Star

    Polar Gael

    Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
    • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
    Posted

    1.0ºC for me please.

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    EML Network Rising Star

    EML Network

    Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
    • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
    Posted

    I shall go for 6.0

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    Roger J Smith Veteran

    Roger J Smith

    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted

    CET averages and extremes

    12.9 ... warmest daily mean, 12th 1994

    8.1 ... warmest Decembers 1834 and 1974

    7.7 ... third warmest 1852

    5.1 ... average for 1971-2000

    4.7 ... average for 1961-90

    4.6 ... average for 1981-2010, also 1901-2000

    4.3 ... average for 2001-2011

    4.1 ... average for 1659-2011

    4.0 ... average for 1801-1900

    3.9 ... average for 1701-1800

    3.4 ... average for 1659-1700

    -0.5 ... third coldest 1676

    -0.7 ... second coldest 2010

    -0.8 ... coldest December 1890

    -10.8 ... lowest daily mean 25th 1796

    _____________________________________

    The cold December of 2010 left a mark, it is unusual in the other months to find 1981-2010 or 2001-2011 below other earlier periods.

    The mean December CET temperature for each date ranges from 5.12 on the 5th to 3.40 on the 26th (all data 1772-2011) ... in the more recent 30-year period 1981-2010, the highest daily mean was 6.26 on the 5th, and the lowest was 3.75 on the 20th. In that same period the coldest day of any month was 14 Feb at 3.36 followed by 7 Jan at 3.45 C.

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    cheeky_monkey Veteran

    cheeky_monkey

    Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
    • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    Posted

    two fat ladies...8.8c

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    feb1991blizzard Maestro

    feb1991blizzard

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
    • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Posted

    A bit early I know.

    Is everyone happy with the pts deductions rules of last year, and its everyone happy in happy the Met Office CET value as well .

    Comments welcomed.

    Also you can use this thread to enter your guesses, but I would wait a while.

    Is there a page with the full rules on Jackone, if so could you please link me to it, i have never seen one, even though i have had a go many a time!, i am aware of the deductions for being late, but do you get bonus points if your correct with an early guess? if not, i cannot understand for the life of me why people are guessing on the 13th Nov!

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    roys Newbie

    roys

    Posted
  • Location: .Hackenthorpe south east Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: winter.
    • Location: .Hackenthorpe south east Sheffield
    Posted

    2.9 thats my offer

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    summer blizzard Maestro

    summer blizzard

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    Posted

    PDO still negative.

    QBO still easterly.

    MEI still neutral.

    Little reason to think much will change so i will go for 4.1C, 0.5C below the 1981-2010 average.

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    J10 Accomplished

    J10

    Posted
    • Author
    Posted

    Is there a page with the full rules on Jackone, if so could you please link me to it, i have never seen one, even though i have had a go many a time!, i am aware of the deductions for being late, but do you get bonus points if your correct with an early guess? if not, i cannot understand for the life of me why people are guessing on the 13th Nov!

    Never really been one.

    Obviously the aim is to get the CET spot on.

    The scores are effectively ranked on the following 4 criteria.

    1. Each Month how much each person is out is calculated. and an average error is calculated.

    2. Each month, every entry is ranked depending on how far they were out, and In the case of a tie, the person who made the entry first wins. The person who finishes is given 100pts, and last 1 pt.

    and again the average position is calculated.

    3. Accuracy points are are awarded monthly on the basis of

    5=0.0c out

    3=0.1c to 0.2c out

    1=0.3c to 0.5c out

    0=0.6c out and

    1= if your prediction is milder 1981-2010 average and this was the case and vice versa.

    Scores are ranked on Total Accuracy points.

    4. Scores are also ranked on Average Accuracy Points.

    These 4 rankings are combined with a given weighting factor and any late entries deductions are taken off.

    Late Entry Deductions

    1 day late = -10 pts

    2 days late = -20 pts

    3 days late = -30 pts

    This gives a total score for each competitor and the highest scores wins.

    Simples. rofl.gif

    Suffice to say, much of this is automated, and Excel is my friend is this regard.nea.gif

    Oct 2012 CET.xls

    You really need to look a the spreadsheet to make sense of my above comments. (and even then it may not work)

    Re the comment about the benefits of entering early, thee really are minimal.

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    Lettucing Gutted Community Regular

    Lettucing Gutted

    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
    • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
    Posted

    8.5C

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    syed2878 Rising Star

    syed2878

    Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
    • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
    Posted

    a bit too early guys but with all the signals accept the strat for the time been pointing to a cold dec im going for 5.5c.

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    feb1991blizzard Maestro

    feb1991blizzard

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
    • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Posted

    Never really been one.

    Obviously the aim is to get the CET spot on.

    The scores are effectively ranked on the following 4 criteria.

    1. Each Month how much each person is out is calculated. and an average error is calculated.

    2. Each month, every entry is ranked depending on how far they were out, and In the case of a tie, the person who made the entry first wins. The person who finishes is given 100pts, and last 1 pt.

    and again the average position is calculated.

    3. Accuracy points are are awarded monthly on the basis of

    5=0.0c out

    3=0.1c to 0.2c out

    1=0.3c to 0.5c out

    0=0.6c out and

    1= if your prediction is milder 1981-2010 average and this was the case and vice versa.

    Scores are ranked on Total Accuracy points.

    4. Scores are also ranked on Average Accuracy Points.

    These 4 rankings are combined with a given weighting factor and any late entries deductions are taken off.

    Late Entry Deductions

    1 day late = -10 pts

    2 days late = -20 pts

    3 days late = -30 pts

    This gives a total score for each competitor and the highest scores wins.

    Simples. rofl.gif

    Suffice to say, much of this is automated, and Excel is my friend is this regard.nea.gif

    You really need to look a the spreadsheet to make sense of my above comments. (and even then it may not work)

    Re the comment about the benefits of entering early, thee really are minimal.

    Cheers.

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    Backtrack Accomplished

    Backtrack

    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
    • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
    Posted

    -0.2C is my entry.

    One of the coldest December's on record, akin to December 2010. No respite from the cold until January.

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    Aaron Community Regular

    Aaron

    Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
    • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
    Posted

    4.5C please

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