Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

December CET (2012/13 Competition)


J10

Recommended Posts

A bit early I know.

Is everyone happy with the pts deductions rules of last year, and its everyone happy in happy the Met Office CET value as well .

Comments welcomed.

Also you can use this thread to enter your guesses, but I would wait a while.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

Yeah pts deductions rules are okay and personally I am happy to use the Met Office CET value and -0.2c... biggrin.png

Edited by Snowstorm1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I'll go for 4.1c

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

I'll leavei t for now

Edited by Aaron
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I think you should get more points if you correctly predict a more extreme CET. After all this is more difficult to predict. The greater the deviance from the norm, the greater the points.

I'm happy to see things stay as they are...

Edited by Rybris Ponce
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

-50C.

Only joking, it's too early at the moment to take a guess so will do it at a later stage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

1.0ºC for me please.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

I shall go for 6.0

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

CET averages and extremes

12.9 ... warmest daily mean, 12th 1994

8.1 ... warmest Decembers 1834 and 1974

7.7 ... third warmest 1852

5.1 ... average for 1971-2000

4.7 ... average for 1961-90

4.6 ... average for 1981-2010, also 1901-2000

4.3 ... average for 2001-2011

4.1 ... average for 1659-2011

4.0 ... average for 1801-1900

3.9 ... average for 1701-1800

3.4 ... average for 1659-1700

-0.5 ... third coldest 1676

-0.7 ... second coldest 2010

-0.8 ... coldest December 1890

-10.8 ... lowest daily mean 25th 1796

_____________________________________

The cold December of 2010 left a mark, it is unusual in the other months to find 1981-2010 or 2001-2011 below other earlier periods.

The mean December CET temperature for each date ranges from 5.12 on the 5th to 3.40 on the 26th (all data 1772-2011) ... in the more recent 30-year period 1981-2010, the highest daily mean was 6.26 on the 5th, and the lowest was 3.75 on the 20th. In that same period the coldest day of any month was 14 Feb at 3.36 followed by 7 Jan at 3.45 C.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

two fat ladies...8.8c

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

A bit early I know.

Is everyone happy with the pts deductions rules of last year, and its everyone happy in happy the Met Office CET value as well .

Comments welcomed.

Also you can use this thread to enter your guesses, but I would wait a while.

Is there a page with the full rules on Jackone, if so could you please link me to it, i have never seen one, even though i have had a go many a time!, i am aware of the deductions for being late, but do you get bonus points if your correct with an early guess? if not, i cannot understand for the life of me why people are guessing on the 13th Nov!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: .Hackenthorpe south east Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: winter.
  • Location: .Hackenthorpe south east Sheffield

2.9 thats my offer

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

PDO still negative.

QBO still easterly.

MEI still neutral.

Little reason to think much will change so i will go for 4.1C, 0.5C below the 1981-2010 average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is there a page with the full rules on Jackone, if so could you please link me to it, i have never seen one, even though i have had a go many a time!, i am aware of the deductions for being late, but do you get bonus points if your correct with an early guess? if not, i cannot understand for the life of me why people are guessing on the 13th Nov!

Never really been one.

Obviously the aim is to get the CET spot on.

The scores are effectively ranked on the following 4 criteria.

1. Each Month how much each person is out is calculated. and an average error is calculated.

2. Each month, every entry is ranked depending on how far they were out, and In the case of a tie, the person who made the entry first wins. The person who finishes is given 100pts, and last 1 pt.

and again the average position is calculated.

3. Accuracy points are are awarded monthly on the basis of

5=0.0c out

3=0.1c to 0.2c out

1=0.3c to 0.5c out

0=0.6c out and

1= if your prediction is milder 1981-2010 average and this was the case and vice versa.

Scores are ranked on Total Accuracy points.

4. Scores are also ranked on Average Accuracy Points.

These 4 rankings are combined with a given weighting factor and any late entries deductions are taken off.

Late Entry Deductions

1 day late = -10 pts

2 days late = -20 pts

3 days late = -30 pts

This gives a total score for each competitor and the highest scores wins.

Simples. rofl.gif

Suffice to say, much of this is automated, and Excel is my friend is this regard.nea.gif

Oct 2012 CET.xls

You really need to look a the spreadsheet to make sense of my above comments. (and even then it may not work)

Re the comment about the benefits of entering early, thee really are minimal.

Edited by Jackone
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

8.5C

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

a bit too early guys but with all the signals accept the strat for the time been pointing to a cold dec im going for 5.5c.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Never really been one.

Obviously the aim is to get the CET spot on.

The scores are effectively ranked on the following 4 criteria.

1. Each Month how much each person is out is calculated. and an average error is calculated.

2. Each month, every entry is ranked depending on how far they were out, and In the case of a tie, the person who made the entry first wins. The person who finishes is given 100pts, and last 1 pt.

and again the average position is calculated.

3. Accuracy points are are awarded monthly on the basis of

5=0.0c out

3=0.1c to 0.2c out

1=0.3c to 0.5c out

0=0.6c out and

1= if your prediction is milder 1981-2010 average and this was the case and vice versa.

Scores are ranked on Total Accuracy points.

4. Scores are also ranked on Average Accuracy Points.

These 4 rankings are combined with a given weighting factor and any late entries deductions are taken off.

Late Entry Deductions

1 day late = -10 pts

2 days late = -20 pts

3 days late = -30 pts

This gives a total score for each competitor and the highest scores wins.

Simples. rofl.gif

Suffice to say, much of this is automated, and Excel is my friend is this regard.nea.gif

You really need to look a the spreadsheet to make sense of my above comments. (and even then it may not work)

Re the comment about the benefits of entering early, thee really are minimal.

Cheers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

-0.2C is my entry.

One of the coldest December's on record, akin to December 2010. No respite from the cold until January.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

4.5C please

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...