December CET (2012/13 Competition)

[Nigerian Prince]

Just enough time to get my Central England Temperature guess,for December 2012 before Midnight, 1.8 CETwas in my head this morning, nice cold, frosty bright morning in London.

[shuggee]

3.0ºC

[Roger J Smith]

December CET -- entries and trivia

12.9 .. ... ... ... warmest daily mean, 12th 1994

8.8 ... Cheeky_monkey

8.5 ... Craig Evans

8.4 ...

8.3 ...

8.2 ...

8.1 ... ... ... ... warmest Decembers 1834 and 1974

8.0 ...

7.9 ... i hatetherain

7.8 ...

7.7 ... ... ... ... third warmest 1852

7.6 ... DAVID SNOW

7.5 ...

7.4 ...

7.3 ...

7.2 ...

7.1 ...

7.0 ...

6.9 ...

6.8 ...

6.7 ...

6.6 ...

6.5 ...

6.4 ...

6.3 ...

6.2 ...

6.1 ... Skeggy blizzard

6.0 ... EML Network

5.9 ...

5.8 ...

5.7 ...

5.6 ...

5.5 ... syed2878

5.4 ... greybing

5.3 ...

5.2 ...

5.1 ... .----- average for 1971-2000 -----

5.0 ... Roger J Smith

4.9 ...

4.8 ...

4.7 ... The PIT, Alex ... ... ... ----- average for 1961-90 -----

4.6 ... ----- average for 1981-2010, also 1901-2000 -----

4.5 ... Aaron

4.4 ... reef, Milhouse, Rybris Ponce

4.3 ... Froze were the Days ... ... ... ----- average for 2001-2011 -----

4.2 ...

4.1 ... AWD, davehsug ... ... ... ----- average for 1659-2011 -----

4.0 ... Styx, Tellow, PeteB* ... ... ... ----- average for 1801-1900 -----

3.9 ... DR(S)NO, Weather-history, fozfoster, Cirrostratus ... ... ... ----- average for 1701-1800 -----

3.8 ... BornFromTheVoid, Jonathan F, southpennine88

3.7 ... Staffordshire, AutumnMists, mulzy, DR Hosking

3.6 ... summer blizzard, chionomaniac, seabreeze86, loafer, The watcher, TonyH

3.5 ... Mark Neal, Boar Wrinklestorm, Isolated Frost, Anonymous21, virtualsphere, Gael_Force, Jackone

3.4 ... Psycho_uk, Mark Bayley, March Blizzard ... ... ... ----- average for 1659-1700 ----

3.3 ... Jack Wales, Duncan McAlister, coram

3.2 ... Harve, Paul T, DiagonalRedLine, mikeocarroll, Continental Climate, jbuffet1980, feb1991blizzard*

3.1 ... Snowmad79, Kentish Man, Yozzer

3.0 ... Norrance, V for Very Cold, stewfox, shuggee

2.9 ... roys, Ferryhill Weather, Seven of Nine, Stationary Front, damianslaw, Ben_Cambs, Great Plum

2.8 ... chiffer, Don

2.7 ... LomondSnowstorm, BARRY, thunderman24, AderynCoch

2.6 ... Aceman, DeepSnow, RAINRAINRAIN, geoffw, Stormmad26

2.5 ... Terminal Moraine*

2.4 ... 22nov10blast, Radiating Dendrite

2.3 ... Chill Pill

2.2 ... godber

2.1 ...

2.0 ... Polar Maritime,Atlantic Flamethrower

1.9 ...

1.8 ... Steve Murr, Optimus Prime, Nigerian Prince

1.7 ... SteveB, londonsnow

1.6 ...

1.5 ... trickydicky

1.4 ... Dunstable Snow

1.3 ...

1.2 ... jonboy, Snowstorm1

1.1 ...

1.0 ... Polar Gael

0.9 ...

0.8 ...

0.7 ...

0.6 ...

0.5 ...

0.4 ... SnOwFeSt

0.3 ...

0.2 ...

0.1 ...

0.0 ...

-0.1 ...

-0.2 ... Backtrack

-0.3 ...

-0.4 ...

-0.5 ... ... ... ... third coldest 1676

-0.6 ...

-0.7 ... Robbie Garrett ... ... ... second coldest 2010

-0.8 ... ... ... ... coldest December 1890

-0.9 ...

-1.0 ...

-10.8 ... lowest daily mean 25th 1796

_________________________________________________

So far, 99 "on time" entries, (edit) and bumped into Shuggee at the door for an even 100, the median forecast is 3.3 C. ... I will edit in some later entries and if there are enough to make it worth while, repost the table on the 4th after the deadline. A cold consensus, look at all the space I have at a moderate 5.0 guess.

* late entries ... now 103 entries, median still at 3.3

Edited December 1, 2012 by Roger J Smith

[PeteB]

4.0 for me.

Pete

[feb1991blizzard]

3.2 please.

[Harve]

It would certainly be very nice for a cold December to get the 21st century average below the 1659-2011 average.

edit: however, that would require a CET of 1.9c so it's reasonably unlikely!

Edited December 1, 2012 by Harve

[Terminal Moraine]

Late with this but I'll go for 2.5c

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of around 0C and maxima around 6C, so something around 3.0C for the first day of the month.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

2.3C to the 2nd (1.6)

3.0C to the 3rd (4.5)

3.3C to the 4th (4.1)

3.0C to the 5th (1.9)

2.8C to the 6th (1.8]

2.9C to the 7th (3.6)

3.4C to the 8th (6.3)

A chilly first week, with a trend for the cold to continue and strengthen into mid month. Already beginning to wonder if my 3.8C will be too high...

Edited December 1, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[Harve]

Minimum today of around 0C and maxima around 6C, so something around 3.0C for the first day of the month.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

2.3C to the 2nd (1.6)

3.0C to the 3rd (4.5)

3.3C to the 4th (4.1)

3.0C to the 5th (1.9)

2.8C to the 6th (1.8]

2.9C to the 7th (3.6)

3.4C to the 8th (6.3)

A chilly first week, with a trend for the cold to continue and strengthen into mid month. Already beginning to wonder if my 3.8C will be too high...

On the other hand, a mild spell won't need to be particularly mild for the CET to shoot right up. There's no sign of that being modelled, except for the occasional 1-2 day period, but it is very early days, and we 'can't trust FI'. So I'm wondering if my 3.2c is too low.

Edited December 1, 2012 by Harve

[Mr Maunder]

A bit to late I'm afraid, but I'll go for 2.9c.

MM

[Roger J Smith]

I've based my 5.0 on the idea that much milder weather could develop in the last third of the month which is linked to the idea that the very cold regime most of us expect will come later in the season. But if that last third fails to deliver could see all these 2s and 3s being quite realistic.

[UV-RAY]

A little late but I'll go for 2.4c

[Optimus Prime]

December to the 1st: 1.5c (negative 4.0c anomaly 71-000 normal)

Mean Max 5.3c (-2.9c)

Mean Min -2.1c (-5.1c)

December 2010 upto the 1st averaged;

Mean Max -0.4c (-8.6c)

Mean Min -3.6c (-6.6c)

Arrhythmical Mean; -2.0c (-7.6c)

[Stu_London]

Minimum today of around 0C and maxima around 6C, so something around 3.0C for the first day of the month.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

2.3C to the 2nd (1.6)

3.0C to the 3rd (4.5)

3.3C to the 4th (4.1)

3.0C to the 5th (1.9)

2.8C to the 6th (1.8]

2.9C to the 7th (3.6)

3.4C to the 8th (6.3)

A chilly first week, with a trend for the cold to continue and strengthen into mid month. Already beginning to wonder if my 3.8C will be too high...

I think you will be at least a degree too high to the 8th (that's not a dig at your forecasting ability, more an observation that the short to medium term has trended colder over the last 24 hours)

[TonyH]

On the other hand, a mild spell won't need to be particularly mild for the CET to shoot right up. There's no sign of that being modelled, except for the occasional 1-2 day period, but it is very early days, and we 'can't trust FI'. So I'm wondering if my 3.2c is too low.

Me too with my 3.6c, I was tempted to go closer to average but let the hype get the better of me.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think you will be at least a degree too high to the 8th (that's not a dig at your forecasting ability, more an observation that the short to medium term has trended colder over the last 24 hours)

I agree with you, the 12z would have us closer to 2.5C by the 8th.

I wouldn't take it as a dig anyway, I only use the GFS max/min charts with slight adjustments based on conditions, not what I'd consider forecasting!

[Stargazer]

Oops - late again! 4.3.

[Ice Day]

Apologies, bit late. I'm going for a bone chilling 1.7c please.

[Stu_London]

2.2C to the 2nd

Last night came in at 0.2C (probably all early readings).

Looking at the 12z GFS, nothing particularly mild in the offing, but it needs to stay very cold to maintain these sorts of values. Therefore I predict something around 2.5C-2.8C for the first third of the month. Anything could happen thereafter, however if you are not sub 4.5C, you are probably out of the running this month.

[masheeuk]

I have to go for 3.6C

[Carl46Wrexham]

4.7c

[Backtrack]

2.9C (-2.3C) to the 3rd.

[damianslaw]

Looking like a cold start to December appreciably below the running mean, though not on a par with 2010, but could rival 2008.. the chances of a colder than average December do look very high at present. The first 10 days or so of December are much more likely to be milder than the last 20 days.. much more..

[DR Hosking]

3.2c to 4th

[Weather-history]

Any idea what the CET wil be by the 7th?

Here are some cold December CETs up to the 7th

2010: -2.1

2008: 2.1

1998: 2.4

1976: 1.6

1962: 0.1

1957: 2.7

1952: 0.0

1950: 1.6

1947: 2.1

1933: 1.5

1925: -0.3

1916: 1.1

1903: 1.4

1902: 0.8

1894: 2.7

1892: 1.6

1890: 2.7

1889: 0.8

1886: 2.6

1882: 2.1

1879: -3.6

1878: 1.8

1875: 0.1

1874: 2.4

1871: 0.6

1870: 1.2

1869: 0.5

1867: 1.6

1846: 0.7

1844: -0.7

1839: 1.3

1837: 2.1

1816: 2.6

1807: 2.6

1804: 2.7

1803: 1.9

1801: 2.2

1800: 2.3

1796: -1.9

1791: 2.1

1788: 0.9

1784: 2.4

1782: 0.6