Tropical Cyclone Boldwin

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Cyclone Boldwin, the second of the South Indian Ocean season, has formed approximately 400 miles south-southeast of the island of Diego Garcia, which is well well east of Madagascar. The small cyclone has spun up fairly quickly over the last 12hrs. Boldwin has sustained winds of 45kts currently. The small cyclone has good banding features, deep central convection and an ill defined eye feature. Shear is low and waters are warm, and the presence of a forming eye makes me think that Boldwin may intensify quite quickly over the next day or so before the southwesterly track takes Boldwin into higher shear and cooler water. The southwesterly track is going to be enforced by a large subtropical ridge steering Boldwin southwestwards along it's northwestern periphery.

[Somerset Squall]

Boldwin has strengthened through today, and sustained winds have reached 55kts. Boldwin has another 12-24hrs to strengthen; JTWC estimate a peak of 60kts before shear and cooler along track sea temps induce weakening.

[Somerset Squall]

Boldwin peaked at 55kts and quickly succumbed to high shear and falling sea temps, and is now a remnant low.