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South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 24th 2012>


Zenarcher

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Estofex haven't updated their warning, so a triple point seems unlikely. A sting jet is really quite rare (once every 10 years in the UK, perhaps?) so the thing to watch, tonight, is the deepening of the low as it passes. I suspect it will deepen more than forecast - the centre hPa has been all over the place, so I reckon there's really not a great handle on this. Also, this is moving really fast for a system of this size, so the track of it may well be different from forecast.

Edited by Boar Wrinklestorm
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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

gfs-0-384.png?18

that face on there reminds me of these

ohmy.png

shok.gif

gtltw

your right the southern part of the low will tighten up and pressure looks to drop as it heads north east

i reckon east anglia between 3am to 7am

your times are about right

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Also, the MetO warnings are more about impact, than likelyhood; which, I think, generally means that some will see quite severe gales, whilst others just a fresh breeze. In my neck of the woods, the strongest winds look likely to hit around 6am. I think that the severe area will be quite localised (and unlucky) The system has got to British soil, now, so the MetO will, given their vast network of weather stations, will be the people to watch, I think.

Edited by Boar Wrinklestorm
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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

I posted yesterday that it may be north Norfolk and Lincs that get the worst of the winds. I'm more strongly of that opinion now (in respect of N Norfolk in any case) It's going to be interesting in East Anglia in a few hours...

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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL

23:25 on 24 Nov 2012 This information is updated every 15 minutes


  • Results 1 - 3 of 3 for Region = Southwest, Severity = Severe Flood Warning

    • severe_final.jpg
      Severe Flood Warning
      Bolingey Stream from Bolingey to Perranporth
      22:30 on 24 Nov 2012
      Location: Bolingey Stream from Bolingey to Perranporth including Nansmellyn Farm, South West Water Pumping Station, Fire Station and Electrical Sub-Station


    • severe_final.jpg
      Severe Flood Warning
      River Cober At Helston
      21:40 on 24 Nov 2012
      Location: River Cober At Helston including St Johns Road, St Johns Close, Coronation Park and Loe Pool


    • severe_final.jpg
      Severe Flood Warning
      River Pol At Polperro
      21:38 on 24 Nov 2012
      Location: River Pol At Polperro including Crumplehorn, The Coombe, Lansallos Street, Mill Hill, Langreek Road and the Main Car Park

Top of table

1 - 3 of 3

Key to flood warnings

Severe Flood Warning severe_final.jpg Severe flooding. Danger to life. Flood

Warning warning_final.jpg Flooding is expected. Immediate action required Flood Alert

flood_alert.jpg Flooding is possible. Be prepared Warning no Longer in Force

External links

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Slowly does it, in fact too bloody slowly for the SW, to be fair. However, it is now clearing Cornwall at last. help.gif

I also feel the SE & EA will unfortunately have a share of this type of event over the coming days. good.gif

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74929-southwest-central-southern-england-regional-discussion/page__st__520#entry2414211

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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL

Hearing the the gust rumble down the chimney. Dog whining, She looking at the window sorry.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire

Hi all - never sure whether Lincs is in East Anglia or the North of England.......

The Environment Agency have updated the flood warnings and Alerts for their Anglian region (Lincs, Norfolk, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire, Rutland, Northamptonshire and parts of the Home Counties). As of 23:25, most of the flood warnings were in low-lying areas to the south and centre of the area (The Rivers Nene and Ouse, and Fenland Drains) which suggests that they might not be as concerned about tidal water locking at high tide as they were earlier today (otherwise you'd expect rivers like the Waveney, Welland and Witham to be included). That said, there are 17 flood warnings and 26 flood alerts in place, with flood alerts from the North of Lincolnshire right down to the home counties, so it's worth keeping an eye on the website to be sure.

The situation in the SW is looking very serious - 3 severe flood warnings and 63 flood warnings, that gone up by 13 in the last hour.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Also, the MetO warnings are more about impact, than likelyhood; which, I think, generally means that some will see quite severe gales, whilst others just a fresh breeze. In my neck of the woods, the strongest winds look likely to hit around 6am. I think that the severe area will be quite localised (and unlucky) The system has got to British soil, now, so the MetO will, given their vast network of weather stations, will be the people to watch, I think.

Absolutely SPOT ON. acute.gif That's precisely why I didn't want to get caught up in the hype from the last couple of days, for fear of overstating things. I am not the Daily Express and neither are you, it seems. diablo.gif

Any wind reports coming from the West and Southwest and Southern coastal locations will obviously be the areas to watch firstly, then the RISK travels Northwards over time.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL

gtltw update chart for tomorrow late afternoon 6pm

PPVE89.gif?31415

do you want to post that on the south west thread sad.png

Bl**dy hell John, That will finish them they cant deal with whats happening now. Sounds crazy praying for a massive speedy upgrade from the PV Split, The quicker that takes control the better.

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

Absolutely SPOT ON. acute.gif That's precisely why I didn't want to get caught up in the hype from the last couple of days, for fear of overstating things. I am not the Daily Express and neither are you, it seems. diablo.gif

Any wind reports coming from the West and Southwest and Southern coastal locations will obviously be the areas to watch firstly, then the RISK travels Northwards over time.

hi gtltw

problem with being too careful

how do you advise the people who could potentailly get affected?

its a bit of a no win situation

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Getting gustier but still relatively tame.

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

Bl**dy hell John, That will finish them they cant deal with whats happening now. Sounds crazy praying for a massive speedy upgrade from the PV Split, The quicker that takes control the better.

hi jason

this dont look very good

its seems non stop for the sw at present

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Apologies if done already, but I've just noticed that BBC Weather has upgraded windspeeds for EA tonight. It was showing as 50mph earlier but now has it as 70mph; that's a big difference from a damage potential POV! I assume the low is deepening more than expected?

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

hi ice day

looks like the low is dropping in pressure at it heads north east over the uk

isobars are tightening on the southern flank

sometime between 3am to 7am will be rough times for strongest winds

on a lighter note

MT8_London_ens.png

london ensembles look a bit extreme rofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

hi ice day

looks like the low is dropping in pressure at it heads north east over the uk

isobars are tightening on the southern flank

sometime between 3am to 7am will be rough times for strongest winds

Yes, as forecast. It seems to me that it's taking a more northerly track which means areas slightly north of the SE are more likely to see the big gusts. As it really hasn't started deepening properly, the track could still change.

Edited by Boar Wrinklestorm
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

hi ice day

looks like the low is dropping in pressure at it heads north east over the uk

isobars are tightening on the southern flank

sometime between 3am to 7am will be rough times for strongest winds

on a lighter note

MT8_London_ens.png

london ensembles look a bit extreme rofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gif

That is some scatter - they go from the temperature of the sun down to absolute zero?!?!?!?!tease.gif

Yes, as forecast. It seems to me that it's taking a more northerly track which means areas slightly north of the SE are more likely to see the big gusts. As it really hasn't started deepening properly, the track could still change.

Hi BW. What's your gut feeling regarding the location of the biggest gusts?

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

What's your gut feeling regarding the location of the biggest gusts?

I would say anything between the 90% and bottom 30% lines on the chart within the SE areas are the 70mph risk areas before 9am (North Kent, Essex, E Anglia) Outside of that area, go for 50-60mph. Just a rule of thumb, since this thing seems to be associated with the occluded front (which is why I am using the RH chart)

post-5986-0-48071300-1353803788_thumb.gi

Please don't take my word for it, though; keep an eye on what the MetO says.

Edited by Boar Wrinklestorm
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