Model Output Discussion 25/11/2012 12Z onwards

[SMU]

are we happy with that low going towards greenland?

Yes

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

as long as you see that patch of 552 Pressure were fine. looksing good for FI

S

[ukpaul]

As suspected GFS backing down and UKMO looks to be the form horse. GIven that I wouldn't bet against things being pushed a bit further east as per the 144h UKMO in the next few runs. Come on ECM, surely you aren't going to wobble tonight?

[ITSY]

all in all very good output. UKMO staying bullish, GFS has heavy snow (10-15cms for central parts of northern england on saturday), and ECM still go to. Don't pay attention to low res IMO, trends are of course important, but nothing is nailed after +96. (including that wishful snowy scenario next weekend!)

FI is also synoptically superb as well. Reload potential, heights don't drop below -5 nationwide, meaning that any attempt by the Atlantic to come in would produce snowfall. What with the early spell snow, nothing in that set-up that isn't fantastic IHMO.

Edited November 25, 2012 by ITSY

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012112512/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

CAnt wait to see the surface temps in these scenarios- widespread -15c overnight

S

[SMU]

BEST GFS RUN OF THE WINTER COMING

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012112512/gfsnh-0-300.png?12

ALL generated because of the canadian low splitting.... remember the 21st NOV 2010- its all the same

S

[Jonan92]

Interesting to see that GFS keeps showing a very disrupted PV

[Buriedundersnow]

nice run but i would like to see that atlantic high move to our north east linking up with the heights to our north surely that would open up a real easterly flow

[Bobby]

We hang onto the cold air on the GFS pretty much all the way. If that shortwave diving SE in FI stays south enough it could cause a snow event across the South and then renforce an easterly flow as it moves into Europe. 06z hinted at that as the does 12z too, a decent little Beast from the East emerges into FI on this run.

How's that for a blocking Greenland high?

Edited November 25, 2012 by Barb-

[ITSY]

two GFS runs and two massive FI reloads and HUGE greenie blocks. Cold never goes. Could this be the end of the wobble?

[Mr Frost]

Another thing to add is IF there is a snow event next weekend within the UK then expect the snow to still be on the ground a week later going by the temperature profiles. This will also aid marginal snow events as we will have developed our own cold pool as each day passes.

Edited November 25, 2012 by Mr Frost

[cold snap]

Think that's what they call reverse zonality

Dont think I've seen anything like it ,

Slowly and I mean slowly getting colder each day

[snowmadchrisuk]

It is absolutely too far away to get excited about but............................................

Now, over the past few days, the Midlands has been shown as being 'bone dry', I know it's just one run, and it's a million years away, but I'm really ,really happy to see this

Must admit that does look pretty tasty , although we all know not to take any note of PPN charts 6 days in advance. This is how it looks on the Precipitype chart .

[The Eagle]

Very cold GFS right the way through from 72hrs. Temperatures barely above freezing by day and well below at night.

[bobbydog]

BEST GFS RUN OF THE WINTER COMING

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-300.png?12

ALL generated because of the canadian low splitting.... remember the 21st NOV 2010- its all the same

S

lets hope not steve!!..... lets hope the rest are even better!!

[Jonan92]

GEM makes nosense

[snowy weather]

So how do the charts look compared to last year? And when can we start to be excited for snow in the south east? Lastly what do uppers of -5 translate to n ground level? Cheers all

[cold snap]

Think this will be small outlier in some parts

Don't think we are ready for the ice age yet lol

Oh and did mr gfs forget to put on messy short waves ,because there isn't any

[Ian Brown]

Yes

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1741.png

as long as you see that patch of 552 Pressure were fine. looksing good for FI

S

Yep - always look for the 552.

An encouraging start from the 12zs, the UKMO chart still looks like an ensemble mean rather than anything specific.

I can't remember seeing many archive set-ups like the GFS goes onto show beyond T200, but let's see what the ECM throws up after it's shocker (in the later frames) this morning.

[kold weather]

BEST GFS RUN OF THE WINTER COMING

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-300.png?12

ALL generated because of the canadian low splitting.... remember the 21st NOV 2010- its all the same

S

Yep, thats a trend the last few GFS runs have been developing, I think its something to keep a very close eye on.

12z GFS is just madness...if that comes in then we aren't going to be that far off the pace set by 2010 by the 15th of December...very impressive!

[weather eater]

two GFS runs and two massive FI reloads and HUGE greenie blocks. Cold never goes. Could this be the end of the wobble?

Err no, while the background signals give this run lots of credence, there will be other runs in the next few days that will give those of a nervous disposition severe sphincter discomfort. It will happen mark my words. And on cue the GEM will give one or two a little twitch in the next half hour or so.

Edited November 25, 2012 by weather eater

[The Eagle]

On the downside the UKMO looks good at 144hrs but the block looks a bit fragile at that stage in the Atlantic. That secondary LP to the south of Greenland could break through to flatten things out. Surprised no one has mentioned the possibility.

[cold snap]

Yep, thats a trend the last few GFS runs have been developing, I think its something to keep a very close eye on.

12z GFS is just madness...if that comes in then we aren't going to be that far off the pace set by 2010 by the 15th of December...very impressive!

Think the only difference kold is the slower transition ,if we could force it a bit more we would be there next week

[snowmadchrisuk]

GEM makes nosense

The Gem is different to the rest at just +48 hours so I expect it's had some, bad initial data or something.. Check the Gem Ensembles when they come out , they wasn't to bad this morning. The Gem Mean chart at +144 from this morning is above Edited November 25, 2012 by snowmadchrisuk

[Bobby]

GEM makes nosense

And the NOGAPS gives us a Bartlett

[UV-RAY]

Err no, while the background signals give this run lots of credence, there will be other runs in the next few days that will give those of a nervous disposition severe sphincter discomfort. It will happen mark my words.

Indeed, never take any run for granted even at +24. Until snow is actually falling IMBY I won't be getting too carried away.

Edited November 25, 2012 by Seven of Nine