Model Output Discussion 26/11/2012 18Z onwards

[Matty M]

Overall at T96hrs, if we were to stop it now, what have we seen?? We have seen further movement towards the UKM output, the GFS is quite close to the UKM Output at 96hrs. So at this juncture one would have to say the UKM model operational is handling this setup the best.

[Panayiotis]

The red circles are the improvements which i see compared the 12z at 78hrs.

Edited November 26, 2012 by panayiotis

[karlos1983]

Low of East Coast is better positioned and at 960 at +90, improvement i think? experts?

[Jason T]

How can I view the model output?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

[bluearmy]

people - the ukmo model is just that - a model. of course it isnt going to be 100% right. thats why we have forecasters. from a coldie perspective, the fact that it is still producing the runs it is adds credence to a possible half way house solution that could deliver snowfall. if it, and the jma jump ship then you move one end of the spectrum somewhat towards the ecm and then the gfs solution. its about trends and probabilities.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Improvements early on. With such short timescales, the 6 hours of new data since the 12z potentially represents more importnace than usual. The trouble is the 18z run is rarely replicated at 00z....or so it seems!

[Continental Climate]

Im happy with this chart http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012112618/gfsnh-0-96.png?18!! Also happy with the fact that its just going to get colder and more festive feeling and who knows us members on the eastern side might even get a few flurries of snow thrown in if thats all we get from this cold snap then fair enough its still a great start to winter in my book!! Lots to look forward to!!

[Tom Jarvis]

The plot thickens

Just as the met are editing ther charts to go in line with ECM and gfs. The gfs starts to go in line with the ukmo

What will happen next

Edited November 26, 2012 by Tom Jarvis

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

How can I view the model output?

Go to charts and data at the top of the page and look for GFS. This should help. You could also use the German site

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=0&carte=1

Don't want to jinx it but this ain't bad

Please models make up your mind this getting like ukmo

Edited November 26, 2012 by cold snap

[Matty M]

Is that COL over the UK at 96hrs realistic?

[HammerJack]

Go to charts and data at the top of the page and look for GFS. This should help. You could also use the German site

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Thanks!

[nick sussex]

Please someone nuke that shortwave to the north of Scotland!

This is painful, the GFS is better upstream but then decides to have this limpet shortwave, we need the ridge down before the upstream low gets in too close.

[EML Network]

Judging by this FI is at + 93 ...try making sense of this if you will (below) , no surprise then that there's so much confusion and disagreement

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

That Atlantic ridge doesn't ridge as far north, kept further west and is sinking away and the LP at southern tip of Greenland is held back a bit longer...not a bad thing at all. That LP forming over Scotland...is that likely? Not convinced.

BFTP

Edited November 26, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[TEITS]

Only just caught up with the models and the usual drama continues (Wouldn't be the same without it!).

My outlook remains unchanged and based on all of todays output so far, the pendulum has swung back to cold. I feel slowly what we're going to see is the models trend towards the UKMO on subsequent runs. If I had to pick a chart that sums up my outlook then its the JMA.

As i've said for many days, any intrusion by the Atlantic could bring a snow event followed by a continuation of the cold. Keep an eye out for some potentially very cold mins on Sunday night.

[Weathizard]

This is like a soap opera, our resident Met man hints that the UKMO is in all probability wrong, and the GFS starts to fall into line with it, you could not make it up. I'm happy with the charts at t96, no point looking further really regarding small features that are likely to cause us trouble because of the inconsistent modelling.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Weathizard

[Geordiesnow]

Please someone nuke that shortwave to the north of Scotland!

This is painful, the GFS is better upstream but then decides to have this limpet shortwave, we need the ridge down before the upstream low gets in too close.

I just wish shortwaves never existed in the first place, its ruining the potential of this run!

Although we are getting nearer to the timeframe, its good news the GFS is now backing away from that horror show of yesterdays ECM which means the ridging is more likely to be successful and the good news on this run is the GFS is still backing the UKMO regarding the troughing.

The bad news is that horrible shortwave!

[Buriedundersnow]

at 108 would that low forming to the north of scotland bring snow

[Matty M]

That pesky tiny limpet shortwave to our north ruins this run.

It all is getting better upstream, run by run, but we need to see the GFS and other models follow the UKM closer to home.

Very close to being a very cold run for the UK&IRE

[Bobby]

Flattening quickly at +108, game over already...

UKMO at day 5

GFS at day 5

Quite different.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Barb-

[Continental Climate]

haha couldnt make it up, cold below uk cold above it with us in the middle http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1142.png!!

[cold snap]

There's just not enough of a block out west it's a simple as that

Cold air desperate to make inroads

[nick sussex]

I just wish shortwaves never existed in the first place, its ruining the potential of this run!

Although we are getting nearer to the timeframe, its good news the GFS is now backing away from that horror show of yesterdays ECM which means the ridging is more likely to be successful and the good news on this run is the GFS is still backing the UKMO regarding the troughing.

The bad news is that horrible shortwave!

Yes have that shortwave clearing se and the ridge further sw and it would have been a great run, it really is like pulling teeth!

As it is the phasing starts between it and the Atlantic low and its game over!

[Panayiotis]

at 108 would that low forming to the north of scotland bring snow

To Scotland yes