Model Output Discussion 26/11/2012 18Z onwards

[karlos1983]

GFS is more in line with the UKMO, I'm choosing to ignore that sw until at least tomorrow, if its still there in 24 hours I'll start to take it in, small steps, almost all positive compared to 12 hours ago.

[Zenarcher]

The shortwave over Scotland is annoying but it's the GFS first attempt at modelling this shortwave and just a few days ago it got a shortwave wrong in the same area.

[NickR]

Very naive of you

If you try, I'm sure you can be even more condescending.

[Cloud 10]

This sums up tonights model output in a nutshell!

Its like they are determined to find every possible way to drive us mad, as things get better upstream they find another complication downstream!

Repeat at 00z,06z and 12z!!!

[karlos1983]

This sums up tonights model output in a nutshell!

Its like they are determined to find every possible way to drive us mad, as things get better upstream they find another complication downstream!

fascinating watch though, some great commentary, I'm very much enjoying it, although I would prefer nailed cold from the east..

[January Snowstorm]

This sums up tonights model output in a nutshell!

Its like they are determined to find every possible way to drive us mad, as things get better upstream they find another complication downstream!

Indeed, and sadly she doesn't have far to drive us!

[bradymk]

This sums up tonights model output in a nutshell!

Its like they are determined to find every possible way to drive us mad, as things get better upstream they find another complication downstream!

haha yes Nick so frustrating. IMO though, the improvements upstream are a positive even though the shortwave ruins it on this run. Now to see what GFS does with this in future runs, still amazes me how exciting all this is but yet so frustrating.

[IDO]

Even the battleground frontal snow event in the SW on Sunday, is a non event, with a rapid transition to +4 uppers.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Cold on 3 sides around us. It's almost as if the UK has its own little mild wedge to bask in. Takes.The.Urine!

It's going to be one of those winters isn't it?!

Edited November 26, 2012 by CreweCold

[EML Network]

YUK !!

That's an awful 18z run, will be a very long way back to cold from here

[nick sussex]

I've seen alot of drama over shortwaves but this now is seriously beginning to get on my wick!

Normally we have one important shortwave, here its like a breeding program like Alien with the Queen spitting out another and another and another.

Help Ripley!!!!!!!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

If its not one problem it's another !! I'm happier though as that low is put back further west and slower coming through. That's every gfs run since this morning to move west and delay they Atlantic , so I look forward to tomorrow runs and think things will look better .

[bobbydog]

Cold on 3 sides around us. It's almost as if the UK has its own little mild wedge to bask in. Takes.The.Urine!

surrounded by cold on the first week of december- it'll get us eventually......

[Dean E]

This is a prime example of What happened in November/December 2010. 5 days before the main event, the models starting to throw everything out of the pram. Back then the ECM was the one outliner that proved to be the right one, with the GFS following on behind... eventually.

Models struggle with a pattern change such as this and that's not even including the blocking!

It will come, just you wait!

SM

[cold snap]

This sums up tonights model output in a nutshell!

Its like they are determined to find every possible way to drive us mad, as things get better upstream they find another complication downstream!

The thing is nick if we had no complications regarding that low we would still struggle with the block even though blocking has been suggested for some time it's quickly showing its a weak block which can be easily overridden

Maybe another go later in the december might prove to be better as suggested by ECM 32 dayer

[andymusic]

People.

Keep the faith- the GFS at 138 is pushing the atlantic in, however each run its further SW & at a better angle. & remember thats 138- we still have 23 runs to T0-

The NOGAPS trending almost totally to the UKMO at 120-

The Fat lady has lost her throat lozengers,

S

Totally agree Steve - this one's a poker game - all models are struggling - just who has the winning hand - lots of bluffing going on - only gonna know when the time comes (or 24-48 hours before) - puts everyone right on the edge though - but that's the nature of the beast!

[Snowy Liverpool]

Big difference is also a ridge of high pressure forming in the Atlantic at t150 which wasn't there in the 12z. We might (hopefully) see that push North and possibly link with a weak high in Greenland. Though of course this is deep fi considering the circumstances.

[Liam J]

Cold on 3 sides around us. It's almost as if the UK has its own little mild wedge to bask in. Takes.The.Urine!

It's going to be one of those winters isn't it?!

Yes, and sadly this is probably a more typical chart for our small part of the world, so close but so far, drives you mad sometimes! lol

[LomondSnowstorm]

YUK !!

That's an awful 18z run, will be a very long way back to cold from here

I would strongly beg to differ...

[Tim Bland]

Look how cold it is across the pond to our east. If only the whole pattern was 500 miles further West! At least there is still a small High in the arctic keeping the jet tracking south and chances of a reload. next time we should have more cold to tap into. Would be gutted if at this much anticipated cold spell went out without so much as a snow shower though

Edited November 26, 2012 by Tim Bland

[ukpaul]

GFS keeps pushing things further west, this is a feature in its runs and we may well see things pushed even further over the next day or so. With UKMO remaining solid (joined by a flip floppy JMA) and with the ECM op out of kilter with its ensembles on the mild side then everything, quite frankly, is as clear as mud.

In that eventuality it's a good idea to look at overall patterns and blocking being prevalent in December. If they don't show up in this timeframe then the rest of December must be blocking heaven (and I'd really like to be able to travel over Christmas, so sod's law and all that....)!

[SMU]

Every single person posting in this thread has got it wrong in the last 30 Mins-

wait till the morning.

You will see this sort of chart starting to develop,

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1996/archivesnh-1996-2-6-0-0.png

\the slider is coming. GFS RIP.

[snowstorm445]

I trust this evening's charts are as dire as ever? Well, just goes to show that no matter how brilliant and how consistent the models can be, some petty shortwave manages to break it all down. Looks like we'll have to wait that bit longer, if the GFS verifies.

It's amazing. All the signs are there; a weak NAO/AO, broken vortex and even an Arctic High, and yet the Atlantic manages to stifle all the potential. And there was no signal of it until yesterday evening. No matter what the outcome, the models have shown themselves to be about as useful as a ship made of lead, constantly backtracking and switching sides (except the UKMO of course )

Anyway, I've not given up on a coming cold spell, but we will probably have to wait, which I have no issue with. But I really wish the models would stop continuously switching back and forth and constantly go against each other. It really pulls at your heartstrings.

[January Snowstorm]

When you think about it we have all just spent the last week glued to the models chasing a cold spell that now may not happen at all.

I think my family think I'm slightly mad at this stage lol

If it doesn't happen it will seriously damage the belief that background signals help us forecast the weather beyond 7 days or so.

In fact it throws the whole winter being cold thinking into disarray

Edited November 26, 2012 by January Snowstorm

[Isolated Frost]

Awful?

Northern blocking that a few years we couldn't dream of. Polar maritime incursions from the west and very cool. Trough remains in europe.

THIS is awful-

Perspective people... look at the bigger picture rather than letting a shortwave blur your view of an incredible hemispherical pattern-

Some V cold air in the offing- this first spell still isn't even started, so why complain about the lack of a second already? Look at the in-depth thread, look at the strat thread- don't be fooled by nwp constantly (and this nwp is showing incredible northern blocking as well!!)