Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - 28th November


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

Yep if 12z are anything to go by-

No white stuff south of Yorkshire, even then high ground from their-

Atlantic firing up as a cold zonal train gets set in and keeps any remote sniffs of proper cold far from these shores-

Once that set's up its going to be very hard to get much sustained cold from that point-

After chasing potential in FI for 3 or so weeks, it seems we're heading down a sustained atlantic phase again-

To all thoose that say 'winter hasn't started'- great, BUT this country gets only a couple of shots at cold over a winter, so if we miss out on 1 in late November as far as im concerned it's a great miss out and means 1 less chance through the very few we have anyway-

PV firing up from here with a cold zonal/zonal patterns, lots of average rainy days and some miserable evenings I reckon from this point onwards-

My opinion only, so not to be shot at-

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

met outlook says w.showers for the mids in the next few days. 1thing i've come across over the last week or so, is that if any1 didnt agree with the up an coming cold sbell they were shot down with flames. Rather sad i find.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston

It looks like we could be heading for quite a disturbed period of weather into next week as the Atlantic turns the power up. A steep thermal gradient being progged which could fuel some notable cyclogenesis.

Oh dear, the last thing needed is more rain...is it likely to be the same places again, or is it too early for that sort of detail?

on a separate note, I love this site....but at this time of year it stops being a weather site and becomes a snow lovers site....last week we had some very significant flooding and all most of the so called weather enthusiasts could do was go nuts about a snow event in fi that isnt going to happen......fair enough I suppose...but if that's you your not a weather enthusiast....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Looking through the ensembles there are some attempts at blocking but the problem seems to be too much energy going into the Atlantic which just blasts any blocking away. Think we're going to need a big block or for the Atlantic to quieten down. No proper cold spell in the forseeable future but that can easily change.

Not quite sure as this weekend will turn colder with a brief but chilly Northerly flow with the potential of snow showers into Northern Scotland and this week in general will be chilly but for all of our model watching, for all the promise, for all the ramping, its going to turn out to be a chilly spell of weather with limited snowfall before the Atlantic coming back in.

That said, if we can stay on the polar side of the jetstream, the outlook will still remain chilly but because the winds coming from the Atlantic, then any cold air will be more modified. All in all, typical December weather as you say.

However yesterday showed promising signs(ignoring the detail), so the outlook is not cut and dry yet, it will be too foolish to say that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: all weather types!
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset 300m asl

So far the GFS points to a cool trend to the N UK and milder conditions to the south. I have to say the GFS really not going for any cold outbreaks at this time. The concerning situation for me regarding any sustained cold are the HP's. One through spain and the other in the mid atlantic. This really prevents any type of trough forming favoring the UK.

That said over the mid to long range the Low pressure at 240hrs over the UK has support from quite a few other models but that is a long way off.

Edited by Dampdorset82
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

I really think some patience is required, IMO the current cold snap never looked like it would deliver much in the way of snow right from when the hints of the cold coming started to appear. The deepest, coldest air always look to stay out of reach out over Scandinavia, thanks to the low to our east, despite the odd rogue operational showing otherwise,

Sunday onwards, we have the Atlantic returning and dictating the weather across the UK and W Europe next week with a succession of depressions sliding SE, but fortunately we stay the cold side of the PFJ throughout this more unsettled spell, though the north only realistically seeing the threat of snow and probably over higher ground most the time.

It maybe not until the tail end of next week and the following weekend that we may see the PFJ amplify again to perhaps allow blocking to occur.

Great post Nick and in the 12z, the PFJ does amplify in the timeframe that you were alluding to in your earlier post. Could be a timeframe to keep an eye on.

Matthew

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

I quite like these features showing up could be a second chance of the high pressure ridging northwards into Greenland. It is in the unreliable timeframe but similar features showed up on the 06z.

Edit:Yep its done so...

post-17320-0-29061000-1354120693_thumb.p

post-17320-0-69087000-1354121144_thumb.p

Edited by panayiotis
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Frustrating how much its all gone down hill today, don't understand where it all went so wrong, the 12z is pretty rubbish. Still will be interesting to see the ecm and the ensembles from the GFS. Where's Steve Murr when you need him?...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

Ouch!! I must admit, that GFS 12Z run did hurt a little bit!!

One plus side though... It is only the end of November so lots of time for things to change! good.gif

P.S - I think someone needs to send todays GFS 12Z to the express! lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Oh dear, the last thing needed is more rain...is it likely to be the same places again, or is it too early for that sort of detail?

Very worrying for the flood hit areas if the Atlantic fires up because what they really need now is a week or two of fairly dry conditions, which unfortunately is looking more unlikely by the day. To early for pinning specifics down yet though but the trend isn't good.

Edited by Liam J
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Have we really moved forward in modelling tricky HLB in the last five years? It seems not.

Outside of T plus 72, the models cannot handle energy around the Southern tip of Greenland.

Ian Brown was shot down for saying a couple of days ago this cold surge would fail and we would have to wait a further ten days for the next shot. Seems he was right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Models seem to be consistently deteriorating any potential cold chances across our shores for the next 10 days or so. As I and others have said, that energy around Greenland just seems to attach itself to the area like a limpet. I also find it a bit of coincidence that strat temps are seemingly the coldest on our side of the hemisphere as opposed to the Pacific side and hey presto,this is where the vortex energy is modelled to reside.

npst30.png

I say 'coincidence' because we are apparently not being dictated to by the upper/mid strat yet.

Edited by CreweCold
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

I think this just goes to show that despite vortex splitting, good teleconnections and solid height anomaly charts, the weather will do what it'll do and sometimes it just can't be predicted.

If you live over high ground in the North/East then you might see some snowfall, elsewhere cold rain seems to be the theme with little sign of any real prolonged cold setting up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Very worrying for the flood hit areas if the Atlantic fires up because what they really need now is a week or two of fairly dry conditions, which unfortunately is looking more unlikely by the day. To early for pinning specifics down yet though but the trend isn't good.

Agreed. We've never been staring down the barrel of any *significant* snow event into the forseeable (fair accumulations on northern uplands into next few days and varied recent ramping aside) - but the cumulative impact of successive rain events are a very different matter and remain the focal point of UKMO concern heading forward into what is characterised as a generally rather cold and unsettled spell into next 10-15 days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very worrying for the flood hit areas if the Atlantic fires up because what they really need now is a week or two of fairly dry conditions, which unfortunately is looking more unlikely by the day. To early for pinning specifics down yet though but the trend isn't good.

The low that forms to the south of the Azores high wants to bring some moist humid air looking at the 850 theta-e's and rainfall forecasts. Could be bad news for the west country but it is a week away and look like they're moving through quite quickly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Thought I would not see double digit figures for a while. The very brief milder flow: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121128/12/120/ukmaxtemp.png

Monday on the south coast, maybe 11c!

By Tuesday: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121128/12/144/ukmaxtemp.png. Down to max 8c. Again 8c on Wednesday on south coast.

Further into N wales by midday Wednesday uppers are -2c, down from -4c on the 06z run.

It appears with every run the general cold is pushed east and the UK enters into a cool average December flow. Only snow next week is on the mountains. By Thursday N England has +3 uppers and Western Ireland heading towards 10-12c.

So now it looks like it will not really even be cold next week. Wet and average temps down south mostly, maybe one frost whilst slightly below average Midlands.

It is clearly a zonal setup next week with substantive rain for most, very much like we had last week. Nothing like winter. Astonishing turn around and very difficult to see us escape this pattern. Even Sunday week when the US is under another trough: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121128/12/264/npsh500.png we have lows spinning off into the Atlantic to stop heights building and the zonal flow continues: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121128/12/288/npsh500.png with HP pushing into the UK.

By mid December: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20121128;time=12;ext=336;file=h500slp;sess=8ab496533554320fd5605b6b30248f3e; still in zonal flow. Very wet is the headline and no sign of cold.

Its the reality of the UK, the Atlantic is King and the rumour of his demise is vastly exaggerated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

well I've read around 5 of the last page-enough for me and confirms my rare appearances into this thread.

reality-about zero

Expectation as far as the moon from some folk

genuine attempt to give detailed summaries-very few and far between sadly

Read me in other threads and I'll try and pop a link in here.

enjoy the playground

Briefly

Its got colder EXACTLY around the time the anomaly charts suggested TWO weeks out, and by the weekend looks to get as cold as predicted then with frost for many, and bonus some WILL get snow, but then such a post as this is a waste for many in here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium

Seriously, guys? What are you saying 'It's Only November' for?

A guaranteed frost for most before Saturday ... snow for about half of us at the weekend and cold temperatures throughout.

I mean HOW much more do you want?!!!

In recent times, a Nov 2010 standard setup has been the expectation, despite its massive rarity. The models are clearly picking up on something a bit more ordinary for the time of year, but the horridness of last December means that any signals for mild(er) weather is often met with hostility.

I see no issue with the models picking up on milder weather, given the time of year, and I think we need to recognise how typical it is for this time of year. A cold winter isn't always going to have cold conditions throughout.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looks like we could be heading for quite a disturbed period of weather into next week as the Atlantic turns the power up. A steep thermal gradient being progged which could fuel some notable cyclogenesis.

Yes there are some stormy charts appearing, especially in the ensembles. Cold cyclonic air from Greenland way potentially mixing with warmer sub-propical systems from the SW is a recipe for some nasty lows and significant rainfall. December is generally the stormiest of the all the months so not surprising I suppose. At least we have a few days for things to dry out a bit, then it may be batten down the hatches time again.

met outlook says w.showers for the mids in the next few days. 1thing i've come across over the last week or so, is that if any1 didnt agree with the up an coming cold sbell they were shot down with flames. Rather sad i find.

Tell me about it lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Yes the models seem to be going against the grain with regards of what the telecons/500mb charts showing. Unless there is a major flip or as GP and JH said earlier about the models might not have the pattern correct/cold outbreaks from n,ne,e, then the trend is for cool unsettled weather after the next 4/5 days with no prolonged cold insight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

Once again on the GFS, we have the idea of a low diving south eastwards and dragging cold air over the UK.

I think the current pattern is very complicated, however this scenario of a slider low shows up time and time again on runs recently.

h500slp.png

This could lead to a very potent cold spell, however, I believe the GFS is defaulting and over powering the Polar vortex as per usual, preventing the Greenland High formation. we shall see.

Still cant understand the unjustified pessimism on here. My view is the models were right all along, they were simply too quick to bring the cold air in, and instead it will be a messy and unsettled transitional phase, before the cold blocked pattern sets in.

I wouldn't be nearly so optimistic of this outcome if it wasnt fully supported by the teleconnections and the weather experts e.g met office etc

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well its been a pretty non eventful 24 hours- Nothing has really shifted in the models, -- all thats changed is the engagemnt of that shortwave off the states as steadily seperated & the final energy has pulled that low under the tip as opposed to up the west coast,

as a result enough residual energy is flowing underneath eastwards to just push the block aside- the UKMO comes closest to any sort of wintry event at 120, but theres no blocking to the east to stop the atlantic.

Its getting very late in the day to change in the short term.

Things still look tasty to the NE in terms of the depth of cold heading in our general direction, we just need that trigger low for the whole 9 yards-

more patience needed - it least it wont be mild, but not quite cold enough either-

outside chance of some wintry stuff down here at the weekend- but quite fleeting.

S

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

Well that really does have to go down as one of the worst GFS run's I've seen in recent times. It's a good job I've decided to reign myself in a bit and take a more relaxed approach to things otherwise I'd be asking for a bit Nick's prozac round about now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

well I've read around 5 of the last page-enough for me and confirms my rare appearances into this thread.

reality-about zero

Expectation as far as the moon from some folk

genuine attempt to give detailed summaries-very few and far between sadly

Read me in other threads and I'll try and pop a link in here.

enjoy the playground

Briefly

Its got colder EXACTLY around the time the anomaly charts suggested TWO weeks out, and by the weekend looks to get as cold as predicted then with frost for many, and bonus some WILL get snow, but then such a post as this is a waste for many in here.

Fair comment John but are you HONESTLY suprised we may not receive what the telecons/500mb charts and to a point the m.o. were hinting at?.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

The low that forms to the south of the Azores high wants to bring some moist humid air looking at the 850 theta-e's and rainfall forecasts. Could be bad news for the west country but it is a week away and look like they're moving through quite quickly.

I was just going to mention this, remember it is still out at T144 onwards so a pinch of the old FI model salt etc but that really could be one to watch in coming runs as it has potential to be a real nasty piece of work, 12z suite in good agreement of the system developing and emerging from the Azores. Warm moist & humid air + PM air = bang, nothing but speculation for the time being.

post-9615-0-15694400-1354121856_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-61952500-1354121865_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-44404600-1354121876_thumb.gi

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...