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Model Output Discussion - 28th November


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

well I've read around 5 of the last page-enough for me and confirms my rare appearances into this thread.

reality-about zero

Expectation as far as the moon from some folk

genuine attempt to give detailed summaries-very few and far between sadly

Read me in other threads and I'll try and pop a link in here.

enjoy the playground

Briefly

Its got colder EXACTLY around the time the anomaly charts suggested TWO weeks out, and by the weekend looks to get as cold as predicted then with frost for many, and bonus some WILL get snow, but then such a post as this is a waste for many in here.

To be fair John, the anomaly charts and model outputs were suggesting something a little more notable than a 2 day cold snap before the Atlantic came rolling in again, I can understand the negativity this time around. There really is nothing exciting showing on the model outputs unless you enjoy cold, wet weather. Big turn around from the models in the last day or two

Edited by Daniel AKA WMD
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

is this such a disaster?

gem-0-138.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, in the Historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 205m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: Mists, Hot, Rain, Bit of snow. Thick frosts are awesome
  • Location: Saddleworth, in the Historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 205m a.s.l

Based on the way things have gone this week;

This time tomorrow, the models will be showing something very cold and exciting :p

In reality though, I think todays models just about paint the picture ... a relatively cold weekend but average or just below average next week and very wet, rain for most ... but it would be stupid not to rule out anything Wintry especially for the North ...

So now it looks like it will not really even be cold next week. Wet and average temps down south mostly, maybe one frost whilst slightly below average Midlands.

It is clearly a zonal setup next week with substantive rain for most, very much like we had last week. Nothing like winter. Astonishing turn around and very difficult to see us escape this pattern. Even Sunday week when the US is under another trough: http://cdn.nwstatic....264/npsh500.png we have lows spinning off into the Atlantic to stop heights building and the zonal flow continues: http://cdn.nwstatic....288/npsh500.png with HP pushing into the UK.

By mid December: http://nwstatic.co.u...605b6b30248f3e; still in zonal flow. Very wet is the headline and no sign of cold.

Its the reality of the UK, the Atlantic is King and the rumour of his demise is vastly exaggerated.

It is very unrealistic and silly to dismiss cold next week ... average Max for early December is round 8-10'C and the models are showing nothing of the sort ... more like 4-7'C.

As for mid December, it is far too early to be making a conclusion on that yet just on one particular run ... I can guarantee you now, that link you have posted will show a massively changed chart about another 20 times before we get to Mid-December.

Let's stick to what the models are really showing ... and not concentrate on the double figures in the South next week .... Low single figures in the North, East and Scotland is FAR more important.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

I still see a real threat of widespread snow on Sunday night/Monday morning.

Despite the low becoming less of a slider we do pull in a south/south easterly under the precipitation. The wind should drag in much colder surface air of the continent.

A look at the GFS pulling in southerly winds, straight from a much colder France.

post-8968-0-87286800-1354121588_thumb.pn post-8968-0-23147300-1354121626_thumb.pn post-8968-0-18202400-1354121641_thumb.gi

The surface wind is from the south, dragging up much colder dew points aiding snowfall potential. Ideally we want the winds coming from a south easterly quadrant.

We'll have a better idea when the UKMO shows the front.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Fair comment John but are you HONESTLY suprised we may not receive what the telecons/500mb charts and to a point the m.o. were hinting at?.

the teleconn/500mb anomaly charts NEVER predicted snowmaggedon nor did the Met Office. That is what is so infuriating when one reads, sadly, the majority of posts in this thread.

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Well its been a pretty non eventful 24 hours- Nothing has really shifted in the models, -- all thats changed is the engagemnt of that shortwave off the states as steadily seperated & the final energy has pulled that low under the tip as opposed to up the west coast,

as a result enough residual energy is flowing underneath eastwards to just push the block aside- the UKMO comes closest to any sort of wintry event at 120, but theres no blocking to the east to stop the atlantic.

Its getting very late in the day to change in the short term.

Things still look tasty to the NE in terms of the depth of cold heading in our general direction, we just need that trigger low for the whole 9 yards-

more patience needed - it least it wont be mild, but not quite cold enough either-

outside chance of some wintry stuff down here at the weekend- but quite fleeting.

S

Disagree Steve i think the potential has shifted in the models,as in there aint as much!
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I may be wrong but, on reflection, the GEM has been as good as any model over the past week (apart from when it has gone off on a tangent). these are obvious and easily discounted.

runs likely to vary wildly in the medium range depening on where all that subtrop energy goes next week.

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

is this such a disaster?

gem-0-138.png?12

Not if a block sat behind the low and stayed there or drifted north but these lows are just coming at us across the atlantic and not south enough.
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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

the teleconn/500mb anomaly charts NEVER predicted snowmaggedon nor did the Met Office. That is what is so infuriating when one reads, sadly, the majority of posts in this thread.

I didnt say they predicted snowmaggedon,but they predicted more than the latest output. Regards
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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, in the Historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 205m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: Mists, Hot, Rain, Bit of snow. Thick frosts are awesome
  • Location: Saddleworth, in the Historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 205m a.s.l

That's the basic thing people need to understand ... we were never in for a deep freeze and probably still aren't until at least Mid-December, unfortunately.

Here's for localized snowfall though :)

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

I think if the ECM follows suit we can safely say 2 things-

*No sustained cold at these shores for at least 14 days

*Very bad news in the run up to the most expensive time of the year for thoose in the SW

The atlantic express has arrived, will it remain in the station?

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Slight downgrade all round the outside chance of an snow event Monday now gone as the mild sector is much more pronounced. Over all keeping a cool/rather cold outlook but nothing outstanding. I think i could waiting a long time for some white stuff and I'm not talking about ground frost.

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Posted
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium

I think if the ECM follows suit we can safely say 2 things-

*No sustained cold at these shores for at least 14 days

*Very bad news in the run up to the most expensive time of the year for thoose in the SW

The atlantic express has arrived, will it remain in the station?

Interesting! So if both the GFS and the ECM show mild today, then there's no hope for severe cold for the next fortnight? So what about the apparent consistency if these two models for the non-event cold spell? That wasn't just a days worth if runs, it lasted several days. But if it's showing mild then it must be true I suppose...

How is it that the apparent "be cautious about the models" theory is often applied during predicted cold spells, but is noticeably silent following mild outputs? Even if back up signals like the PV and NAO lean towards a colder setup?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I didnt say they predicted snowmaggedon,but they predicted more than the latest output. Regards

that rather depends if you are able to read what they show. they are mean charts representing a whole week of output. the daily changes will not show. if the background anomolys stay the same for the whole week then that what the chart will show. it cant pick up shortwaves. once we get to middle next week (which is the latter part of the initial period they were showing for), we may be able to make a better judgement.

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

I think that there's a certain group of folks that post on this forum that are interested in 'snow' and not 'weather'. That's why only the serious enthusiasts post when the charts show mild. Weather is Weather, mild or cold and it matters not a jot to me whatever the output, I love it all.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

OK the sniping in a few posts is getting tedious now.

If you want to moan at each other then use the pm system or go into the moaning thread.

Members that continue to ignore these requests could have their posting rights restricted.

Now please let`s get back on topic.

Thank you.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Interesting! So if both the GFS and the ECM show mild today, then there's no hope for severe cold for the next fortnight? So what about the apparent consistency if these two models for the non-event cold spell? That wasn't just a days worth if runs, it lasted several days. But if it's showing mild then it must be true I suppose...

How is it that the apparent "be cautious about the models" theory is often applied during predicted cold spells, but is noticeably silent following mild outputs? Even if back up signals like the PV and NAO lean towards a colder setup?

Watch the ao rise and nao the Atlantic domination is set to continue and as a model watchers there's no reason to except that December is going to be 2010 repeat. Atleast for first half there was always a gutt feeling for me that this winter has shown similar setup to last.

But we shall see.

Models have been very quick to fix mistakes so cool zonal and I believe the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

I had a look at this forum, looked at this thread, and thought 'hey, you know, these charts are going to be awful'

gfsnh-0-6.png?12?12

Get a grip people- these are some absolutely superb synoptics. Appreciate what you get- and the teleconnections/strat profile are supporting repeated outbursts of this, superb stuff-

btw, 0c in Stockholm with sleet, 4c max here today...

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Re your first point highlighted - hope casting is a bit strong of a word - When we see favorable indicators set up such as the ones discussed over the past week and this early into winter. We do get exited because their is potential there. This time we have been very unlucky. And as for your point re the cold north east air arriving by December you only need to go as far to look at the posts from the more experienced posters on here to know that there will be more chances in the offering in the near future.

Re your second point highlighted - As previous stated we have been very unlucky not to receive a plunge of real cold this time & yes cool zonal may be the name of the game heading into early December however ​to suggest very little sign of wintry weather on the horizon. Well you may have to eat humble pie as it wont take too much in the way of difficulty for the pattern to change dramatically as we are not far away from real cold as things stand.

I would say rather that we need to be very lucky for the ingredients to all fall into place for sustained cold and snow potential.

I don't see snow prospects except for the far north/ hills though the first week in December, who knows what the second week may bring.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

@John Holmes

As far as I am aware , you have been predicting long term blocking likely to the NW , This still looks likely in the longer term in my eyes... Even the latest runs keep trying to build pressure back over Greenland (albeit they usually fail) but longer term I think we will see a renewed Greenland High rather than a raging P/V . I'd just like to say I enjoy reading your PDF's and am very grateful for the amount of time you put into them .

Regards

Chris

Edited by snowmadchrisuk
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Posted
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3

The amount of times a big fat greenie 1030+ high appears and disappears on the GFS 12z op run in FI is rediculous and implausible in my eyes - I am consigning it to the waste bin... overall trend still looks good for cold lovers after discounting for the implausibility of the actual specifics of the GFS 12z FI charts

Edited by Buzzit
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

So the promise of a persistent block to the north has been backed off on both GFS and UKMO by T144. Quite shocking how quickly it gets crushed actually. Will it reappear? I guess there will be some fluctuations run to run for a few days. The good news for winter lovers is that the air to our north and east is now cold, so opportunities for cold may not need such a big lead-in in the next couple of weeks. In short, winter is round the corner, but will it actually come around that corner?

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

Very wierd last couple of days. This cold weather was set in stone last week by few people on here and now its only lasting 2 maybe 3days at best. Would rather have the cold coming mid month onwards like 2009/10 winter. Goods news for us is that Siberia and Alps etc. are getting the snow/cold for the time of year only good sign as always. In meantime all hats off to Piers for this predicting this and could be disaster for Joe B popularity. Piers been right so far this winter starting from October until now so hats off.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m

I will remain optimistic as long as the teleconnections are looking good and as long as GP,Chiono,JH,NS and Steve murr etc can see potential cold spells develoing...

My prediction is for colder runs to start showing again before this time tomorrow, would be in keeping with the model output of late.

Dan smile.png

Edited by phil n.warks.
deleted ot comments
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Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife

gem-0-144.png?12

The 12Z has the lows further south again (above) compared with 00z below.

gem-0-156.png?00

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