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Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Here goes: a new one...

Old:

Edited by Rybris Ponce
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I think most cold lovers would have given a right arm if you were offered anomalies like this back in September for winter;

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif

Incredible northern blocking.

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

First run of the afternoon is out

gme-0-72.png

GME very similar to the 6z GFS out to T+72, nice cold NNEly feed by wednesday, with a frontal system heading SEwards giving the risk of some snow for quite a few

GFS 12z now rolling

SK

Edited by snowking
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Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain

12z run going on already, need to watch the 90h, at that time we will know if that low will show up near us or go east as in the 00z run

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

On my mobile so can't discuss the main detail of the models but the EC32 update definitely suggested height rises toward Scandi mid-month last week- and the associated NWP/ENS have gone with that signal, the GIN corridor is also likely to be affected by +ve heights- the previous MOGREPS signal for height rises o/ the continent must not be ignored, with a cool polar continental flow from the S associated- but the stratospheric updates certainly supports height rises further N or NE-

Sorry on my mobile atm, hopefully I could be a tad more comprehensive next time around

PS good signal for snow across NE England/much of Scotland (esp high ground and NE) this eve and tomorrow morning- the difficulty for southern regions will be the frontal activity as highlighted by latest FAX

PPS Lorenzo, superb hemispherical charts with the GEFS and ECM- where did you get them please?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

Not a bad chart to have T48 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn481.png!! Although in our new post 2008 weather regime pretty run of the mill i suppose

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

I would say this is an upgrade to the cold in the short term http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn662.png!!! Whole country almost in snow giving -5 850s

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Much better north-easterly on the 12z, covering most of the country in -5C uppers.

Edit:Continental Climate beat me to it :)

post-17320-0-11398400-1354463458_thumb.p

Edited by panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I would say this is an upgrade to the cold in the short term http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn662.png!!! Whole country almost in snow giving -5 850s

Oh look, the good old M4 corridor dividing line

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Oh look, the good old M4 corridor dividing line

Follow the run and you'll see it's not like that. Look six hours later for example.

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Well unfortunately in the shorter term the GFS Op removes the channel low opportunity

gfsnh-0-96.png?12

What this also means is the colder uppers pulled back around (a la 6z) stay further east initially

SK

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I don't think we've seen the last of the changes with this shortwave. You have to factor in whether the GFS has overdeepened this, upstream however things look fine.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

models looking good for a fair bit of snow around mid week for many especially northern parts

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Posted
  • Location: Carvoeiro, The Algarve
  • Location: Carvoeiro, The Algarve

Well unfortunately in the shorter term the GFS Op removes the channel low opportunity

gfsnh-0-96.png?12

What this also means is the colder uppers pulled back around (a la 6z) stay further east initially

SK

This seems to tie in with Beeb forecast i saw earlier today - i think that channel low scenario had already been ditched by Meto?

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Looks like snow showers for the NE of the country on Wedneday

gfs-2-66_yaq4.png

Enough for a covering in places I would think.

I would say a fair chance for most eastern areas including the south.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

After that Iceland heads SE I can a Greenland high forming at (123hrs)..

post-17320-0-36861000-1354464627_thumb.p

Edited by panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Yes despite the slight near term downgrade for snowfall potential (GFS was fairly alone with this anyway) we see the PV lobe move further NWwards away from Greenland

gfsnh-0-126.png?12

SK

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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.

The shortwave next week does not really hold much joy to me considering the bags of potential mid month. If we did not have big potential mid month then i'd be angry.

If it comes off a la 06z then great for us southerners. However with the amount of experts calling for a easterly mid month it really feels like a ever so small appetizer before the treble starters and mains complete with a deserts. A hungry man for snow i am...

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Re query on GM in last thread: yes, in any context written by Ops Centre it refers to UKMO Global Model; in their analyses any reference to the main comparative GM or NE Atlantic models used by Exeter will say so (these being primarily ECMWF, ARPEGE, NCEP-GFS, JMA)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Time to get the beta blockers out!

Wow, wow! This reminds me of a set up many moons ago with low being ejected se right through the UK and east/ne flow coming down. Great stuff so far!

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Looks like GFS 12z coming into line with the medium range Meto thoughts outlined by fergie in previous thread.

you beat me to it Nick

Edited by mcweather
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