Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...

[Methuselah]

Here goes: a new one...

Old:

[AWD]

I think most cold lovers would have given a right arm if you were offered anomalies like this back in September for winter;

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif

Incredible northern blocking.

[snowking]

First run of the afternoon is out

GME very similar to the 6z GFS out to T+72, nice cold NNEly feed by wednesday, with a frontal system heading SEwards giving the risk of some snow for quite a few

GFS 12z now rolling

SK

[Jonan92]

12z run going on already, need to watch the 90h, at that time we will know if that low will show up near us or go east as in the 00z run

[Isolated Frost]

On my mobile so can't discuss the main detail of the models but the EC32 update definitely suggested height rises toward Scandi mid-month last week- and the associated NWP/ENS have gone with that signal, the GIN corridor is also likely to be affected by +ve heights- the previous MOGREPS signal for height rises o/ the continent must not be ignored, with a cool polar continental flow from the S associated- but the stratospheric updates certainly supports height rises further N or NE-

Sorry on my mobile atm, hopefully I could be a tad more comprehensive next time around

PS good signal for snow across NE England/much of Scotland (esp high ground and NE) this eve and tomorrow morning- the difficulty for southern regions will be the frontal activity as highlighted by latest FAX

PPS Lorenzo, superb hemispherical charts with the GEFS and ECM- where did you get them please?

[Continental Climate]

Not a bad chart to have T48 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn481.png!! Although in our new post 2008 weather regime pretty run of the mill i suppose

[Daniel Miller]

Both lows looking deeper at this point in time, 60h... Where shall they now go?

[Continental Climate]

I would say this is an upgrade to the cold in the short term http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn662.png!!! Whole country almost in snow giving -5 850s

[Panayiotis]

Much better north-easterly on the 12z, covering most of the country in -5C uppers.

Edit:Continental Climate beat me to it

[Bobby]

Looks like snow showers for the NE of the country on Wedneday

Enough for a covering in places I would think.

[karlos1983]

I would say this is an upgrade to the cold in the short term http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn662.png!!! Whole country almost in snow giving -5 850s

Oh look, the good old M4 corridor dividing line

[ukpaul]

Oh look, the good old M4 corridor dividing line

Follow the run and you'll see it's not like that. Look six hours later for example.

[snowking]

Well unfortunately in the shorter term the GFS Op removes the channel low opportunity

What this also means is the colder uppers pulled back around (a la 6z) stay further east initially

SK

[nick sussex]

I don't think we've seen the last of the changes with this shortwave. You have to factor in whether the GFS has overdeepened this, upstream however things look fine.

[Buriedundersnow]

models looking good for a fair bit of snow around mid week for many especially northern parts

[Guest]

Well unfortunately in the shorter term the GFS Op removes the channel low opportunity

What this also means is the colder uppers pulled back around (a la 6z) stay further east initially

SK

This seems to tie in with Beeb forecast i saw earlier today - i think that channel low scenario had already been ditched by Meto?

[Stuie]

Looks like snow showers for the NE of the country on Wedneday

Enough for a covering in places I would think.

I would say a fair chance for most eastern areas including the south.

[January Snowstorm]

The 12z is shaping up very nicely with height rises over Greenaland early on

Could be a belter of a run coming up

[Panayiotis]

After that Iceland heads SE I can a Greenland high forming at (123hrs)..

[snowking]

Yes despite the slight near term downgrade for snowfall potential (GFS was fairly alone with this anyway) we see the PV lobe move further NWwards away from Greenland

SK

[london-snow]

The shortwave next week does not really hold much joy to me considering the bags of potential mid month. If we did not have big potential mid month then i'd be angry.

If it comes off a la 06z then great for us southerners. However with the amount of experts calling for a easterly mid month it really feels like a ever so small appetizer before the treble starters and mains complete with a deserts. A hungry man for snow i am...

[kold weather]

Everything a little better lined up so far, pretty good run upto 132hrs, though there is still time for it to go wrong.

[fergieweather]

Re query on GM in last thread: yes, in any context written by Ops Centre it refers to UKMO Global Model; in their analyses any reference to the main comparative GM or NE Atlantic models used by Exeter will say so (these being primarily ECMWF, ARPEGE, NCEP-GFS, JMA)

[nick sussex]

Time to get the beta blockers out!

Wow, wow! This reminds me of a set up many moons ago with low being ejected se right through the UK and east/ne flow coming down. Great stuff so far!

[mcweather]

Looks like GFS 12z coming into line with the medium range Meto thoughts outlined by fergie in previous thread.

you beat me to it Nick