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Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

Right at the interesting bit the GFS model bias kicks in and totally over develops the low - at least I suspect it is. Very different to UKMO at 120 hours anyway due to developing the lows too much - so 144 probably not worth a lot.

Edited by beng
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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

By t132 the second low is running a lot further south with much better

ridging in the Atlantic and heights to the north. The low should undercut

the heights much better leading to a more pronounced east to northeasterly

flow.

I'm liking this run a lot.

Edited by cooling climate
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

Time to get the beta blockers out!

Wow, wow! This reminds me of a set up many moons ago with low being ejected se right through the UK and east/ne flow coming down. Great stuff so far!

Hi nick i dont know if it was you but someone said it was unlikely that we would get height rises to the NW for the time being more likely the NE!! In this run there seems to be height rises all over the bloody place lol

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

The UKMO is not so keen on a deepening depression to the SE of Greenland like the GFS is;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=120&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=120&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

I expect amplification up towards Greeland wouldn't be as strong afterwards on the UKMO compared to the GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Worrying signs though on the 132-150hrs chart, that LP is starting to wander a little SW...NOT Se like we need it to. If that happens we could have the best Greenland high in the world and we'd only have a slightly below average returning flow around the LP.

Keep a close eye, this run could go pete tong from here if that low doesn't eject SE very soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.

Worrying signs though on the 132-150hrs chart, that LP is starting to wander a little SW...NOT Se like we need it to. If that happens we could have the best Greenland high in the world and we'd only have a slightly below average returning flow around the LP.

Keep a close eye, this run could go pete tong from here if that low doesn't eject SE very soon.

Up to 162 and its heading south east...

Now to 168+ and steady she goes se still..

Edited by london-snow
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

Worrying signs though on the 132-150hrs chart, that LP is starting to wander a little SW...NOT Se like we need it to. If that happens we could have the best Greenland high in the world and we'd only have a slightly below average returning flow around the LP.

Keep a close eye, this run could go pete tong from here if that low doesn't eject SE very soon.

I just think it's the GFS nonsense of over-deepening the low Kold - hopefully this time tomorrow we're going to see something a bit cleaner.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Worrying signs though on the 132-150hrs chart, that LP is starting to wander a little SW...NOT Se like we need it to. If that happens we could have the best Greenland high in the world and we'd only have a slightly below average returning flow around the LP.

Keep a close eye, this run could go pete tong from here if that low doesn't eject SE very soon.

yes, phew it goes SE

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

GFSlooking good so far if that trough slips into the comtinent we should be sorted

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I'd feel much happier if that slider low was a good 100-200 miles further east, we are treading a fine line here, that upper low could just as easily sit over the UK like it did on a couple of the ensemble runs.

Luckily, there is too much of a good thing going on in the rest of the Atlantic, but I like any SW motion on any low in this area...

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

I think the lack of comment on the 144hrs UKMO says it all

A poor run imo, let's hope the gfs has spotted a new trend

In general I think the gfs is leading the charge this Winter and the UKMO has temporarily reached the cannon fodder!

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

Bit of a poor run there from the UKMO, that could easily go totally wrong, there is little blocking in the Atlantic and what there is is at a horrid angle as well...not impressed by that run at all!

Is the ukmo 12z out, i cant see it?

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

There she is....!

post-17320-0-53280400-1354465876_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Things are getting more clear regarding a potent snowy spell. Both GFS and UKMET firming up on PV segment vacating Greenland allowing proper height rises.

Almost in the reliable to.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

I think the lack of comment on the 144hrs UKMO says it all

A poor run imo, let's hope the gfs has spotted a new trend

In general I think the gfs is leading the charge this Winter and the UKMO has temporarily reached the cannon fodder!

It's very similar to this morning's ECM at that time range.

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