Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...

[Harsh Climate]

Great for norhern scotland/northern ireland and coastel fringes but not every where else at this stage, but general trend looking good.

Edited December 2, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[chionomaniac]

The current modelling situation reminds me very much of 2010. Not in the final evolution of synoptics but more in the way we get there.

It is like one of those word games where we know the starting word and end word but they need changing letter by letter in between. Well, we know the start position and we can guess the end position ( Scandi high) but the transition from A to B has yet to be decided yet - with numerous solutions offered.

We will get there in the end!

Edited December 2, 2012 by chionomaniac

[kold weather]

It's very similar to this morning's ECM at that time range.

Its worse, at least with this morning's ECM there was a decent mid-atlantic ridge and the LP in the Atlantic was a good deal further south, on the UKMO thats just going to cut through any HP that is trying to form, much like we saw with this cold set-up which prevented the gangbuster synoptics some models painted from happening.

UKMO has just about the worst case for future cold we could get from the current evolution.

Edited December 2, 2012 by kold weather

[ukpaul]

UKMO 12z looking much closer to the GFS 06z than the 12z (at 144h that is).

Edited December 2, 2012 by ukpaul

[Methuselah]

I think the lack of comment on the 144hrs UKMO says it all

A poor run imo, let's hope the gfs has spotted a new trend

In general I think the gfs is leading the charge this Winter and the UKMO has temporarily reached the cannon fodder!

One can only wonder at what you would call a 'good run', JS?

Edited December 2, 2012 by Rybris Ponce

[Harsh Climate]

If I was to be critical about this run I would say this low pressure (over UK) needs to head further south and east, but this is just retrospective at this very early stage

[mountain shadow]

I think the lack of comment on the 144hrs UKMO says it all

A poor run imo, let's hope the gfs has spotted a new trend

In general I think the gfs is leading the charge this Winter and the UKMO has temporarily reached the cannon fodder!

You have got to be joking?

[Zakos]

at 144 hours:

UKMO would probably end up with a scandi high

GFS would have us lead to a Greenland high. take your pic!!

I would personally prefer a scandi high. not from a IMBY perspective

but because the residual energy will put up a fight against a Greenland high formation.

Note on the GFS 12z how the low heights desperately cling to Northern Greenland. Despite strong ridging, A "proper" Greenland high does not form

IMO, we need the Azores to link up with the Siberian high. This is the route to sustained and significant cold.

[Met4Cast]

If I was to be critical about this run I would say this low pressure (over UK) needs to head further south and east, but this is just retrospective at this very early stage

Chances are the GFS is over strengthening the low, if the system was weaker we'd see it further East. Not a bad run by the GFS bar that small detail, UKMO doesn't look ideal, though! A lot flatter than the GFS.

I wonder what the ECM will bring!

[beng]

Its worse, at least with this morning's ECM there was a decent mid-atlantic ridge and the LP in the Atlantic was a good deal further south, on the UKMO thats just going to cut through any HP that is trying to form, much like we saw with this cold set-up which prevented the gangbuster synoptics some models painted from happening.

You may be right - my thinking is it's between this morning's 144 and 168 charts from the ECM - as I would envisage that low around iceland heading SE and ridging behind it - but we'll never know due to there being no 168 hour chart!

Edited December 2, 2012 by beng

[snowking]

The current modelling situation reminds me very much of 2010. Not in the final evolution of synoptics but more in the way we get there.

It is like one of those word games where we know the starting word and end word but they need changing letter by letter in between. Well, we know the start position and we can guess the end position ( Scandi high) but the transition from A to B has yet to be decided yet - with numerous solution offered.

We will get there in the end!

And I think this is a great example of that:

Despite all the differences between the 6z and 12z inbetween, they still end up at an almost identical position by +300

SK

[Harsh Climate]

This run clearly went wrong around 168h when those shortwaves in the svalbard region where just too prevalant, we need a pressure rise in this area to have a real shot at a good easterly/northeasterly.

End result

In my oppinion better run <144h, poor after. I think we may have just seen one of the worst possible endings there, expect some crackers in the esembles me thinks

Edited December 2, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[cold snap]

Decent run from gfs again another easterly run

This has to be odds on now

Ukmo model may still get there

[kold weather]

One can only wonder at what you would call a 'good run', JS?

He is right, there will be no cold spell later on if that 12z UKMO comes off, its NOT good at all...

[Panayiotis]

The current modelling situation reminds me very much of 2010. Not in the final evolution of synoptics but more in the way we get there.

It is like one of those word games where we know the starting word and end word but they need changing letter by letter in between. Well, we know the start position and we can guess the end position ( Scandi high) but the transition from A to B has yet to be decided yet - with numerous solution offered.

We will get there in the end!

As you say Scandi high looking more probable although its FI,many runs have suggested this....for example at 312hrs:

Edited December 2, 2012 by panayiotis

[ukpaul]

at 144 hours:

UKMO would probably end up with a scandi high

GFS would have us lead to a Greenland high. take your pic!!

I would personally prefer a scandi high. not from a IMBY perspective

but because the residual energy will put up a fight against a Greenland high formation.

Note on the GFS 12z how the low heights desperately cling to Northern Greenland. Despite strong ridging, A "proper" Greenland high does not form

IMO, we need the Azores to link up with the Siberian high. This is the route to sustained and significant cold.

Yes, the 12z attempt to raise heights over Greenland just confuses matters, hopefully it's on its own as it sits in the ensembles. In the near time frame the path of the low is very much up for grabs, most models are keeping it as far North as the 12z, even further so in fact.

Edited December 2, 2012 by ukpaul

[SteveB]

He is right, there will be no cold spell later on if that 12z UKMO comes off, its NOT good at all...

That doesn't sound good Kold, do you think the cold spell is over and a return to mild conditions is the form horse?

[Methuselah]

He is right, there will be no cold spell later on if that 12z UKMO comes off, its NOT good at all...

Okay...My apologies JS.

And I was even looking at the wrong model!

Edited December 2, 2012 by Rybris Ponce

[kold weather]

12z GFS is fine, its not the super cold set-up some runs in recent days have had, but its certainly cold enough and we keep blocking nearby or to our north throughout.

Compared to that HORROR show of a UKMO run, this is light years better...

[Timmytour]

Does the high pressure over Greenland go pop after T192?

[Harsh Climate]

He is right, there will be no cold spell later on if that 12z UKMO comes off, its NOT good at all...

It's only one run, chill. UKMO has performed poorly start of this winter anyways.

Edited December 2, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Methuselah]

At the end of the day, no models will make one iota of difference to the eventual outcome. The weather's gonna do what the weather's gonna do!

[SLEETY]

UKMO IS performing very poorly at 144 if you check the verification stats 'so unlikely to verify at that range

[Summer Sun]

Whats peoples thought's on the snow for tomorrow after tonight's updated models? still the same areas in for the snow?

[sn0wman]

12z GFS is fine, its not the super cold set-up some runs in recent days have had, but its certainly cold enough and we keep blocking nearby or to our north throughout.

Compared to that HORROR show of a UKMO run, this is light years better...

You know it's going to be a cold winter when charts like these: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=144&nh=1&archive=0

are being called a horror show.