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Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Compared to that HORROR show of a UKMO run, this is light years better...

Thats a bit dramatic is it not?

UKMO similar to where ECM went this morning ( have a look at the 00z) and also ties in with what Ian F has been saying regarding a milder blip come the weekend. However IMO substantial pressure rises to the north and east are the most likely outcome in the end, as Chionio says, it's just how we get there thats the issue.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

The UKMO chart at t144 as some have mentioned is full of potential with pressure rising

over Greenland the low over Iceland disrupting and diving southeast undercutting the

block to the east and hey presto we'er in the freezer.

Another very good run from the GFS but very cold uppers still a long way from our shores

although it is just trends we are looking at at this stage as the pattern slowly develops.

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

While we're talking verification (and I would echo the above comments - beyond day 3, the UKMO has dipped in verification in comparison to GFS and JMA)

cor_day8_HGT_P1000_G2NHX_12Z.png

Surprising that out at day 8, the JMA even overtakes the GFS

SK

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Im failing to see whats wrong with t144 Met chart. Heights are building into Greenland, no spoiler shortwaves as the PV moves to Canada.

It would odds on for a northerly them easterly in my opinion.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I can't believe the comments I am reading about the UKMO run. It is just a variation on a theme. We would have blocking develop to the NW and the trough digging into Europe, it is unknown exactly how thins would develop from there but I would put big odds on it not still leading to an Easterly.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

How do we know that a model is 'performing badly' if things haven't happened yet?

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Thats a bit dramatic is it not?

UKMO similar to where ECM went this morning ( have a look at the 00z) and also ties in with what Ian F has been saying regarding a milder blip come the weekend. However IMO substantial pressure rises to the north and east are the most likely outcome in the end, as Chionio says, it's just how we get there thats the issue.

Agree. It's a bit of an over-reaction, not sure why really. It's only one op run and it's not as though it's even that bad in its own right!?!

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Agree. It's a bit of an over-reaction, not sure why really. It's only one op run and it's not as though it's even that bad in its own right!?!

It's only one persons view though, which is fine, just important to have other opinions thrown in.

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

Im not so sure the UKMO is such a bad run

It certainly is if you want to end up with a Greenland high

But at 144 on the UKMO, the pressure over Europe is far lower than on the GFS.Furthermore, the core of the Siberian high is much close to Scandinavia on the UKMO than the GFS.

I honestly think the UKMO is infact better than the GFS in terms of a prolonged cold spell. There is simply too much residual energy over Greenland to allow a formidable Greenland High to form

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

Despite strong ridging, there is too much residual energy for the Greenland High to form.

I personally feel we need a Scandinavia high, and I believe we shall get one. I eagerly await the ECM to clear things up a bit.

Edited by Zakos
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Wow folk panicking at a ukmo chart at 144 hrs??If your looking for deep cold and very snowy weather then i think your going to be feeling sad this side of the next 10-15 days.Trends,potential possibly

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

While we're talking verification (and I would echo the above comments - beyond day 3, the UKMO has dipped in verification in comparison to GFS and JMA)

cor_day8_HGT_P1000_G2NHX_12Z.png

Surprising that out at day 8, the JMA even overtakes the GFS

SK

Why a surprise??!

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

The UKMO chart is absolutely fine, not for those who put all their eggs in the Greeny high basket but, looking at the synoptics that is a much less likely outcome (unless transitory) in any case.

Do they think it's bringing the Azores High in or something?

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Just like the UKMO was so adamant of persistent Greenland blocking last week, only to eventually get completely outclassed by the ECM & GFS.

It's one run, if the UKMO does have some consistency to it but goes against the GFS/ECM this time then I think we know who the winner is likely to be.

Great GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Wow folk panicking at a ukmo chart at 144 hrs??If your looking for deep cold and very snowy weather then i think your going to be feeling sad this side of the next 10-15 days.Trends,potential possibly

I wouldn't call it panicking, rather expressing an opinion that it's not great at 144hrs

yes we know it's not terrible, but neither is it brilliant (or good even imo)

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

While we're talking verification (and I would echo the above comments - beyond day 3, the UKMO has dipped in verification in comparison to GFS and JMA)

cor_day8_HGT_P1000_G2NHX_12Z.png

Surprising that out at day 8, the JMA even overtakes the GFS

SK

I'm not seeing the UKMO on that chart?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Why a surprise??!

Purely because in about 10 years of model watching its never been taken seriously by most of us!

In fairness to us, the verification stats have never justified it being a big player until rather more recently...though I know MO would disagree with that

SK

I'm not seeing the UKMO on that chart?

KQ

Its because the UKMO (or at leats the data thats freely available online) doesn't go out to day 8

SK

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

12z GFS is fine, its not the super cold set-up some runs in recent days have had, but its certainly cold enough and we keep blocking nearby or to our north throughout.

Compared to that HORROR show of a UKMO run, this is light years better...

Aren't you getting just a tad carried away?

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

The UKMO 144 chart is not an awful chart at all and is perfectly in line with with 10-15 day thoughts from the meto that Ian Fergusson outlined in the earlier model thread this afternoon.

Namely that the meto thoughts are a Scandi high with real purpose developing and giving an easterly feed with possible frontal incursions into the south west

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Why anybody is looking at + 144 is beyond me anyway, it's shown a completely different set up every day for the past 3 days at + 144, tomorrow it'll be showing something completely different again.

FI is at about +72 right now IMO , classic example is one of the BBC weather forecasts from earlier today predicting snowfall in the South East on Wednesday afternoon. whilst the Met Office has the South East down as rain, FAX chart can't decide where the 528 Dam Line is going to be, so there's clearly disagreement for 3 days ahead, let alone next weekend.

It's annoying, but we'll just have to accept that anything post + 96 is subject to quite large changes

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