Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[phil nw.]

New thread then for the 12z`s model runs.

A reminder to keep to model discussions on here-general views and comments in the relevant threads

Ok eyes down for the 12z outputs.

[southbank]

• Be interesting to see how the Euro models & GFS develop between T+ 96 to T+144 and what variations we see.
  
• I cant help feeling that we may develop a Feb 2012 type easterly where the UK was just a tad to far on the fringes to get anything meaningful with milder inclusions into the SW
  
• But got to admit despite that looking at the NH profile currently is great viewing and if it doesnt end in a 91/87 blast at least it will be festive !!
  

[Bishop Brennan]

I cant help feeling that we may develop a Feb 2012 type easterly where the UK was just a tad to far on the fringes to get anything meaningful with milder inclusions into the SW

That may very well turn out to be the case, although it wouldn't necessarily represent a poor outcome IMO. The CET for the first ten days of Feb 2012 was barely above zero from what I recall, and most places had at least one or more significant falls of snow.

Bish

[Jonan92]

It seem that in this Run its trying to link to the GH

[Frosty.]

It's clear from the GEFS 06z mean that the Gfs 06z op run was at the milder end of the ensembles as the mean shows a prolonged cold blocked outlook, although the charts do lack definition it's a fairly slack looking pressure pattern for most of the time but it does hint at a N'ly and an E'ly, no sign of the atlantic powering up on the mean, indeed the atlantic looks relatively calm.

Hats off to the ukmo for spotting the delay to the scandi type cold outlook before the other models, although this weekend will be cold with high pressure and possibly into early next week.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Frosty039

[nick sussex]

It looks like the trigger shortwave could drop down further west, this is better than the 06hrs run.

[danm]

It looks like the trigger shortwave could drop down further west, this is better than the 06hrs run.

Agree. At 96h the short wave seems to be moving SE rather than NE.

[MR EXTREMES]

yes se but look at heights building leaving just the south east in colder air will there be a swift move of them heights going northeast or are we stuck under the block........to be continued......

t108 not looking good block stuck over us.

Edited December 4, 2012 by badboy657

[Wilxy]

yes se but look at heights building leaving just the south east in colder air will there be a swift move of them heights going northeast or are we stuck under the block........to be continued......

t108 not looking good block stuck over us.

Its still not as bad as 06z lets see where the rest of the run goes.

[Backtrack]

Unsure whether the 24 hour accumulated rainfall radar shows past rainfall or future rainfall based on what the radar is currently showing, but it sure does highlight the emphasis of more precipitation affecting western areas.

Either way, it's not looking too bad at all for snowfall later on as colder air digs in as the front is passing down from the north (would expect ppn to pep up slightly more than the NMM is suggesting on the western flank though, the Irish Sea could become an important factor here), emphasising specifically for those of us in the west, although it's clear that the main focus are those yet again in the eastern half of the country.

Temperatures and dewpoints will fall dramatically as the colder air digs in from the north, and those of us fortunate enough to be under the heavier ppn will be subject to further cooling thanks to evaporative cooling, so probably some accumulations at lower levels this time, rather than the focus being mainly for elevated areas.

Guess it's just a matter of how quickly that colder air can dig in, lets hope it's a little faster than the NMM suggests.

Good luck guys

Edited December 4, 2012 by Backtrack

[MR EXTREMES]

mind you never seen so many height rises blocking all over the place got to be a problem here surely.

[nick sussex]

First contact about to be made with ridge to the ne to help drive that trough south!

Come on you know you can do it GFS!

In all my excitement I meant to say the pesky shortwave but I think you know what I mean!

Yes all systems goooooooo!

Edited December 4, 2012 by nick sussex

[Wilxy]

Much better heights towards greenland on this run so far.

[Panayiotis]

This may lead to a Scandi high....

[Frosty.]

I'd take anything you read in the Daily Mail, weather-related or otherwise, with a huge pinch of salt if I were you.

Bish

Yes but this is what some of the models are still showing will be the outlook, it has support.

[Weathizard]

Better at 132, shortwave heading south and looks like the block is alligned better. + all moved further west which is good

[Ian Brown]

This looks much better, there is potential great WAA for the Highs to form the loop needed.

[Southern Storm]

The jet appears to be a lot stronger on this run, does anybody know how this would affect us in the long run?

[karlos1983]

Definite improvement I would say so far.....?

Edited December 4, 2012 by karlos1983

[Southender]

Well our Norwegian trough is certainly heading SE. Good news for a Scandi HP...

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-144.png?12

A million miles away from the 6z output.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Shrimper

[chionomaniac]

So far so good - there is also a big cold pool just waiting to whizz around in this run - it's far better aligned.

Will it do so when I look again in thirty mins?

[danm]

Out to 138h this is a much better run than the 6z. Heights ridging between the UK high and the Scandi high. Heights building over Svalbard and trough digging south into Europe. Hopefully the linkup completes!

Edited December 4, 2012 by danm

[MR EXTREMES]

yes 1-0 to the gfs i must admit now but im pretty sure im not going to ramp 96hrs for me is enough.

dont trust any of the models past this point.

[The Northern Ramper]

yes se but look at heights building leaving just the south east in colder air will there be a swift move of them heights going northeast or are we stuck under the block........to be continued......

t108 not looking good block stuck over us.

The heights transfer over us at the same time the shortwave moves East above it, then the shortwave tracks south east allowing heights to build behind and pushing our heights south.

This is the same route showed last night by models to an Easterly.

[Gowon]

http://www.meteociel...=120&carte=1021

The UKMO don't look as good at 120.

Neither does the 144 - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

Edited December 4, 2012 by Seselwa