Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[karlos1983]

Very happy within a reliable isn't it strange how yesterdays 12z was by far the best of yesterday as well? Hmmmm

FI is fabulous, but let's not get carried away, again. Please ECM don't let us down again

Dare we say trend? I am almost certain I saw a post offering the advice, that you should look at comparing runs,i.e. 12z today v 12z yesterday, rather than 12z v 06z?

A great run, but I'm not going to allow myself to get carried away yet..

[Ian Brown]

This run go to show why people don't always take the GFS that seriously, cold to mild then back again lol

What is going on is a complex battle and minor changes lead to big differences later on. The GFS gets there after a protracted battle, and our location means that this sort of battle is always likely to take place. A few hundred miles either way with the pattern and everything changes.

Nice undercut going on at T288 !

[snowking]

On work on my phone so havnt seen the whole run but from the look of the few charts posted on here, particularly that +228, 12z was pretty well supported by the 6z ensembles

SK

[The Northern Ramper]

FI not only looks great but it fits in with the signal of retrogression from Scandi towards Greenland, the whole run looks plausible.

[Methuselah]

What is going on is a complex battle and minor changes lead to big differences later on. The GFS gets there after a protracted battle, and our location means that this sort of battle is always likely to take place. A few hundred miles either way with the pattern and everything changes.

Nice undercut going on at T288 !

Absolutely Ian. I was just about to say exactly that! Plus the fact that, when taking GP's thoughts into consideration, something like that end-solution seems the bet??

Not, of course, suggesting that such a pattern could ever persist until March, though!

Edited December 4, 2012 by Rybris Ponce

[karlos1983]

GEM Appears to be behaving so far...

[EML Network]

Well at least we've stopped the ship from sinking after the morning runs.

Decent UKMO although still a bit miserable!

Very good GFS

Crap NOGAPS but who cares!

GEM coming out looks like its supporting the GFS.

See you all later for the ECM

Yup that pretty much sums up Winter here on Netweather. ...well maybe not last Winter ..last winter was more like ...

"GFS, UKMO, ECM, NOCAPS, GEM all say no....but I did see that the CFS was hinting at a cold outbreak at +1084 :-)"

Happy to see the GFS still thinks an Easterly is possible, I just wish it would come closer than + 240 though!!

with the ECM being so rock steady of late with it's 214 / 240 charts (and last nights 192) I bet my bottom dollar it'll ditch the idea altogether this evening and we'll be none the wiser once again.

Edited December 4, 2012 by EML Network

[Frosty.]

FI not only looks great but it fits in with the signal of retrogression from Scandi towards Greenland, the whole run looks plausible.

Yes the GEFS 6Z mean supports this type of evolution and the 6z op run can probably go in the shredder with the PV.

Also, comparing the gfs 12z yesterday with today is what we should be doing.

[Methuselah]

This run go to show why people don't always take the GFS that seriously, cold to mild and then back again lol

I think that that's more to do with the upcoming knife-edge weather-pattern tbh...And rather less to do with any particular model being crap?

[Zenarcher]

I've just checked the 144 hour chart from yesterday then today's 120 hour chart from the UKMO and these are the changes I can point out most of them seem good apart from that shortwave to our North,

[Catacol]

GFS op run for end of next week looks nearly identical to the ECM ensemble mean earlier today. This chart keeps popping up... question is - how long til we get there? Answers on a postcard... but battleground signals still there consistently.

[Weathizard]

Not fair to say the GFS shouldn't be taken seriously, there is always going to be swings like this because 200 miles E/W will make a difference between Atlantic getting in or us getting a easterly flow. In the past I have been critical but in a setup like this we need to cut the models some slack as they are just computers after all! Please ECM, stay aboard the ship, don't have a repeat of yesterday!

[Dave Kightley]

Gem at 144h Edited December 4, 2012 by Dave Kightley

[TEITS]

Delighted with the GFS because at least it stop the recent run of outputs showing the block being less influencial. The UKMO is also a massive improvement and has now realised the SW should track SE. The GEM 12Z is much better than the 0Z and even brings in an E,ly flow at +144.

We still have much that needs to be resolved especially this SW tracking SE. The mean of all the outputs over the past few days is this will probably track SE into Germany.

[Frosty.]

I think that that's more to do with the upcoming knife-edge weather-pattern tbh...And rather less to do with any particular model being crap?

The 6z was crap but thankfully it has little support, an atlantic invasion is the last thing expected. Next week does indeed look like trending even colder from the east but even before then it looks cold and anticyclonic with fog and frost this weekend and into early next week as the resident high sinks south, just a little milder and more unsettled into the far north for a time early next week before the cold trend locks in.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Frosty039

[IDO]

Will this help: http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/

"Met Office observation systems have picked up a minor SSW in the stratosphere over the past few days, suggesting that this may have an impact on the UK.

Jeff Knight, a Climate Scientist at the Met Office, said: “Satellite and other observation data show that there is a minor SSW going on and this is one factor amongst many others which could perpetuate the colder than average conditions we have seen recently.

“It could take anything from a few days to a few weeks if it is going to have an impact. However, it’s consistent with the current 30-day outlook from the Met Office which favours colder than average conditions – albeit with a fair amount of uncertainty.â€

The Met Office will continue to monitor the situation and, as ever, will keep everyone up to date on any periods of cold weather through our forecasts and warnings."

This appears to be already posted, sorry

Edited December 4, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[SnowObsessor90]

I think that that's more to do with the upcoming knife-edge weather-pattern tbh...And rather less to do with any particular model being crap?

In any case I think it's fair to say that the GFS has the tendency to go for the most extreme one way or another more so than other models due to it's lower resolution output, the truth could well be somewhere in between. That said I'd love for the 12z to be bang on the money.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Anonymous21

[ITSY]

Haven't had time to delve too deeply - but in terms of cold potential for next week it looks like GFS and GEM v UKMO and NOGAPS. wonder what side ECM will sit on - either way it won't matter, the potential is still out in cuckoo land for the time being. Lets give it time.

[TEITS]

Amazing GEFS mean at +192.

Vast improvement on the 06Z and to be honest you must click on this link because rarely will you see such a mean.

[fergieweather]

An interesting enough prognosis in our model suite for many into tomorrow AM on the potential snow front, so don't panic about the long-term...! ;-

[Glacier Point]

very tidy GEFS mean at day 8:

Sub-tropical ridge held well in check over Bermuda, -ve height anomaly over the Azores and +ve height anomaly over much of the NE Atlantic.

Solid stuff from the ensembles with not too much scatter.

[MKN]

An interesting enough prognosis in our model suite for many into tomorrow AM on the potential snow front, so don't panic about the long-term...! ;-

Can you go into more detail please?

Edited December 4, 2012 by chionomaniac
manners......

[If Wishes made Weather]

Amazing GEFS mean at +192.

Vast improvement on the 06Z and to be honest you must click on this link because rarely will you see such a mean.

http://modeles.meteo...21-1-192.png?12

Dont mind the ones coming after it either. Serious easterly push, but still out of the reliable. Good to see less scatter though up to day 8.

[SMU]

Just to add to GP's post-

The 12z GFS shows its superiority over the 06Z run with the correct minor tweaks to the North & East that deliver a lot-

The 06z polar modelling awful as usual-

Something we still have to consider is how much energy going underneath-

I want to try & be clear we want an UNDERCUT- not an UPPERCUT- easy enough to remember- Undercut all the energy goes south & recurves sometimes North into europe ( excellent)

Uppercut is when to much energy is moving North East into the Block-

Anyway a good day so far- just the UKMO still dragging its heels so we have to be cautious.

The BIG bonus with undercutting is

* forces the upper air cold pool west-

* Holds the Sandy High in Situ

* Introduces some more PPN into the UK-

its a win win win- the uppercut is a lose lose lose!

S

Edited December 4, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Backtrack]

An interesting enough prognosis in our model suite for many into tomorrow AM on the potential snow front, so don't panic about the long-term...! ;-

Any detail regarding tomorrow morning's front, Ian? Seems to be a little disagreement with that front right now, esp for some western areas?

Cheers.