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Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

The GEFS mean get even better at 240hrs. Vast improvement on the 6z. Awaiting the ecm the see where that thinks we will head in the next 7 to 10 days.

gens-0-1-240.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Winter. Dry cool Summers
  • Location: Bournemouth

Any detail regarding tomorrow morning's front, Ian? Seems to be a little disagreement with that front right now, esp for some western areas?

Cheers.

12120512_0412.gif12120506_0412.gif

I am sure he will give more detail as and when. If you have a look at JH PDF on what is require for snow and use the latest output from GFS you will see that areas with elevation and north of M4(I hate this term but I think it correct for this) could well see some. I would suggest that Dartmore could also and yes it below the M4.

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

Iin the extended range we have a nice signature for mean jet flow displaced well to the south allowing stable blocking structures to take root.

Spreads at day 14 show little variability on a flat trajectory around the Med.

post-2478-0-90593100-1354643413_thumb.jp

GEFS H5 mean height anomaly depicting a retrogressive signal:

post-2478-0-26928000-1354643460_thumb.jp

Note in the last one the anomaly over the Arctic showing good agreement on shifting of the core pv towards Siberian sector.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs

The GEFS mean get even better at 240hrs. Vast improvement on the 6z. Awaiting the ecm the see where that thinks we will head in the next 7 to 10 days.

http://modeles.meteo...-0-1-240.png?12

Thats the control, but its still fanatstic. Here is the T240 mean, http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9285/gensnh-21-1-240_ddj1.png

Ryan.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

GFS has my down for snow where I live tomorrow I'm happy even if its sleet!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I wonder what signal the ukmo is getting though? and lets not forget the ukmo was first to pick up on the delay and was trashed because of it, but is proved correct so we can't light up those cigars yet although the gefs mean looks solid.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Thats the control, but its still fanatstic. Here is the T240 mean, http://images.meteoc...-1-240_ddj1.png

Ryan.

Very unusual to see that solution at 240hrs, generally you always get a split of solutions which skews the mean with easterlies at that timeframe.

Thats certainly suggestive of a strong signal so lets hope the ECM upgrades from this morning and makes a correction westwards with the shortwave.

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

Thats the control, but its still fanatstic. Here is the T240 mean, http://images.meteoc...-1-240_ddj1.png

Ryan.

Are yes my mistake just got a little excited(also should translate from frenchsmiliz39.gif ). Been following GP's advice and following the mean its alot less stressful.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Looking chilly in the next few days

12_36_ukthickness850.png?cb=389

May even have a wintry mix with it!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Lets all start channelling this GEM output into the ECM!

post-1206-0-73597300-1354644053_thumb.pn

This is what we want to see at 144hrs, if I'm being greedy a touch west with the shortwave but this would certainly get even me ramping!

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Very unusual to see that solution at 240hrs, generally you always get a split of solutions which skews the mean with easterlies at that timeframe.

Thats certainly suggestive of a strong signal so lets hope the ECM upgrades from this morning and makes a correction westwards with the shortwave.

Pleasing to see the T168hrs. mean Nick.

post-2026-0-08666500-1354644139_thumb.pn

showing the trough split with the heights linking up.

In spite of the hiccups that block ain`t going anywhere.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Lets all start channelling this GEM output into the ECM!

post-1206-0-73597300-1354644053_thumb.pn

This is what we want to see at 144hrs, if I'm being greedy a touch west with the shortwave but this would certainly get even me ramping!

I thought the GEM verification was a bit rubbish though?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I thought the GEM verification was a bit rubbish though?

Yes its been terrible recently but I just posted that as an example.

If that pops up on the ECM there will be a meltdown in here!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Winter. Dry cool Summers
  • Location: Bournemouth
ECH1-72tuj1_mini.pngThis is a good start to the run. It all looks slightly further west and the pressure on the high in the atlantic is not as strong which will help it to maintain its position.
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Thats the control run-

this is the mean!

http://modeles.meteo...21-1-240.png?12

pretty good!

S

Very good mean, if the ECM ensembles mean is anything close, you'll be seeing the the long range members shoot south of 0C for a long period of time.

The fact the UKMO isn't with us is worrying though, historically that is the model that busts ALOT of easterlies, I've seen times when its been on its own against all other models but nailed the set-up...so it does need to be watched.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

An interesting enough prognosis in our model suite for many into tomorrow AM on the potential snow front, so don't panic about the long-term...! ;-

PPN on the radar looks a little more widespread than maybe I expected at this point. How it evolves into tomorrow I don't know, I'll just have to watch the Points West forecast I guess.

As for the mid term, as others have pointed out GFS mean is looking very good, following some similar mean runs from the ECM.

Rz500m8.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

ECM1-96.GIF?04-0

This is an excellent chart at +96. The low over Scandi IS going southward, the heights are 5-10mbs stronger than the previous run and the atlantic high is westward...no complaining

EDIT: no complaining SO FAR

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Yes its been terrible recently but I just posted that as an example.

If that pops up on the ECM there will be a meltdown in here!

Fingers crossed then nick, the suspense is awful.

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Lets all start channelling this GEM output into the ECM!

post-1206-0-73597300-1354644053_thumb.pn

This is what we want to see at 144hrs, if I'm being greedy a touch west with the shortwave but this would certainly get even me ramping!

GEM 96

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2012120412/gemnh-0-96.png?12

ECM 96

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012120412/ECH1-96.GIF?04-0

more or less the same

S

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

best GEFS in a long time. forget the fact that they are strongly clustered around an easterly in week 2 - the fact that they are strongly clustered around one broad solution is a massive change. whlist the mean hasnt been too far from reality over the past few weeks, the fact that the members cannot agree on a solution has made me less than enthused about where we are heading. the 12z's seem to be a step change. percentage snow chances for london beyond middle next week higher than 1 in three for a four day stretch.

BTW, JMA run incorrect post T84 on meteociel at the moment (before anyone panics)

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

120hrs GFS12Z:

gfs-0-120.png?12

120hrs ECM12z:

ECM1-120.GIF?04-0

Spot the difference. ECM has higher heights over Iceland and hasn't yet started to push the low past Norway, but the general set-up is fantastic.

Edited by ITSY
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