Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[TEITS]

Very good mean, if the ECM ensembles mean is anything close, you'll be seeing the the long range members shoot south of 0C for a long period of time.

The fact the UKMO isn't with us is worrying though, historically that is the model that busts ALOT of easterlies, I've seen times when its been on its own against all other models but nailed the set-up...so it does need to be watched.

At least the 12Z UKMO finally wants to move the SW on a SE,ly trajectory which is the first time it has done this because other runs had this moving E/NE.

The key for me is what I said this morning and that is its the trajectory of this SW moving SE that is very important. A SSE,ly vector is much better than SE or ESE because the E,ly will arrive sooner i.e GEM.

[cooling climate]

After reading some of the remarks on the UKMO output I was expecting to see

a horror show when I came on line, instead am glad to see a big,big improvement

on tonights run with a Scandi high setting up further down the line I would imagine.

Here's hoping the ECM run keeps the good mood going. Could be a cracking run

coming up can not see it going any other way really.

Excellent ens means by the way.

Edited December 4, 2012 by cooling climate

[xioni]

ECM gives 2-5cm of widespread snow in the SE on Friday afternoon (and much more on the near Continent)

The rest of the run should be good too

[SMU]

Just a quick one-

Ignore the JMA after T84 on meteociel its broken.

S

ECM gives 2-5cm of widespread snow in the SE on Friday afternoon (and much more on the near Continent)

The rest of the run should be good too

can you link that-

S

[snowice]

Very good mean, if the ECM ensembles mean is anything close, you'll be seeing the the long range members shoot south of 0C for a long period of time.

The fact the UKMO isn't with us is worrying though, historically that is the model that busts ALOT of easterlies, I've seen times when its been on its own against all other models but nailed the set-up...so it does need to be watched.

about a week ago ukmo was out on its own and we all thought it was right about the greenland high

only at the last minute backtracked and went with gfs ecm

[xioni]

can you link that-

S

I can't sorry (work link) - It's mainly over Kent but most areas southeast of London get a slight dusting on this run

[Dave Kightley]

ECm

[Methuselah]

about a week ago ukmo was out on its own and we all thought it was right about the greenland high

only at the last minute backtracked and went with gfs ecm

That's because whichever model's showing the most Day After Tomorrow-like scenario is far-too-often referred to as the 'one to watch' or 'pick-of-the-bunch'...

[Dave Kightley]

OH Lovely Edited December 4, 2012 by Dave Kightley

[SylvainTV]

Just a quick one-

Ignore the JMA after T84 on meteociel its broken.

S

It is data from last month, it will get fixed in max 30 when newest data arrives. Sorry about that ! You will see when the charts will show something normal !

Sylvain

[kold weather]

Well we are going to get an attempted undercut at 192hrs I feel, but are we going to be far enough east to not get caught up in the milder air, its going to be a fairly close call I suspect looking at the set-up.

A Scandinavian high is about to go up, its just whether we are at the end of the easterly flow or not...

[nick sussex]

The ECM at 168hrs is similar to this mornings and with that disrupting trough to the west this looks fine, I think we'll probably see the same high centre in Scandi as this morning.

An acceptable ECM so far, its a little slower with the evolution but the trough to the west should send some energy in towards Iberia.

[EML Network]

I knew it would happen... 50% of the GFS Ensembles (or more) give us an Easterly , and the ECM say's "Noooo" at +168 , although to be fair the GFS runs don't really get an Easterly developing until + 192, but I can't see how the ECM is going to get there from this >

Unbelievable really, I just give up...I really really do

[Dave Kightley]

I am sure my house is just there in the yellow bit

It's not far off from the GFS which is a good thing. The blocking looks nice to is what i mean't

[bluearmy]

I knew it would happen... 50% of the GFS Ensembles (or more) give us an Easterly , and the ECM say's "Noooo" at +168 , although to be fair the GFS runs don't really get an Easterly developing until + 192, but I can't see how the ECM is going to get there from this >

Unbelievable really, I just give up...I really really do

CHILL OUT eml ...................... it'll be fine

[SMU]

I knew it would happen... 50% of the GFS Ensembles (or more) give us an Easterly , and the ECM say's "Noooo" at +168 , although to be fair the GFS runs don't really get an Easterly developing until + 192, but I can't see how the ECM is going to get there from this >

Unbelievable really, I just give up...I really really do

dont worry EML heres the ECM 192 chart- by then we are tugging air off the continent- if we do introduce a bit of the atlantic feature it will be nice to see it shear SE-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

S

[SylvainTV]

It is data from last month, it will get fixed in max 30 when newest data arrives. Sorry about that ! You will see when the charts will show something normal !

Sylvain

JMA now fixed and up to 192h, and it's very good Be sure to clear the cache or type Ctrl-F5 to see the latest charts.

Sorry again for the inconveniance !

Sylvain

[snowice]

I knew it would happen... 50% of the GFS Ensembles (or more) give us an Easterly , and the ECM say's "Noooo" at +168 , although to be fair the GFS runs don't really get an Easterly developing until + 192, but I can't see how the ECM is going to get there from this >

Unbelievable really, I just give up...I really really do

+168hrs long time away alot can change as we have seen in the last few runs! dont panic!

[cooling climate]

Amazed by the negativity of the t168 chart its a beaut. The next frame

and the rest of the run should be ummm, AWESOME.

[TEITS]

So this SW could drop into either Holland, Germany or even Poland based on the 12Zs. Im hoping for Holland but I feel Germany will be the likely spot.

[Wilxy]

ECM 192h just gets a easterly, south easterly not a disaster at all.

[Geordiesnow]

I think the main trends in the output has to be a rise in pressure over Scandinavia and for the UK also so it should be an output that will turn drier which is of course good news with the above average rainfall. What the high pressure cells do from there on in is all uncertain but I do feel the chances of some sort of easterly feed has increased but only just imo, its still all a little unconvincing in my eyes, certainly no runs which suggests you are nail biting in hope it follows the same trend as the previous run.

On the other hand, no real trend on Atlantic based weather and whilst the outlook looks like it will turn less cold, its by no means its going to be mild either.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I knew it would happen... 50% of the GFS Ensembles (or more) give us an Easterly , and the ECM say's "Noooo" at +168 , although to be fair the GFS runs don't really get an Easterly developing until + 192, but I can't see how the ECM is going to get there from this >

Unbelievable really, I just give up...I really really do

The low in the atlantic is going SE , Easterly will happen on ECM without a doubt , you seem to judge runs to quickly eml.

[The Northern Ramper]

I knew it would happen... 50% of the GFS Ensembles (or more) give us an Easterly , and the ECM say's "Noooo" at +168 , although to be fair the GFS runs don't really get an Easterly developing until + 192, but I can't see how the ECM is going to get there from this >

Unbelievable really, I just give up...I really really do

The only thing i find unbelievable is your reading of the charts.

[ITSY]

GFS, GEM and JMA all together. ECM leaning closer to GFS than UKMO, which also has NOGAPS on its side. fascinating battle - albeit a very fustrating one