Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[TEITS]

JMA is excellent.

So really what is uncertain is the track and speed that the SW drops SE and the timing of the arrival of an E,ly flow into the UK.

[EML Network]

I am going to gladly eat my words Re + 162, classic knee Jerk reaction , ..off to find a beer to wash it down with ..thanks guys :-) I am a happy camper again + 192 looks goooood

[Jupiters Winter]

So now we have agreement with ECM/GFS at T192 and it seems as though UKMO will do so aswell. Ensembles look positive from both Models. We will get further oohs and aahs i am sure as models adjust positioning. But overall it has become more than a trend and excitement should be positively creeping in. All the signals and the pros pointed towards such setup.

[AWD]

JMA at T192;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=0&nh=1&archive=0

Not bad. Strong Scandinavia heights present.

Edited December 4, 2012 by AWD

[kold weather]

The PV is not in a great position this run at 192hrs, it'll be putting alot of pressure on the block I suspect.

HOWEVER, that is a very cold set-up at 192hrs, the wind is fairly slack and so whilst it won't be 'that' snowy, that'll be a very cold pool we'll be tapping into as Europe will have cooled for a solid 7 days by that time.

[Dave Kightley]

Lnice -12 uppers to our east

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?04-0

Not so good tonight

never mind- onto the next runs!

JMA excellent-

ECm could have a pinch to much energy-

S

Edited December 4, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Jonan92]

Very strong PV to the west

[xioni]

After struggling with it, this EC run doesn't really bring the cold pool into the UK and has the Atlantic trying to move in at the end, but who can trust it so far out...

I expect a slightly better EC ensemble tonight

Worth also mentioning that this run has some extremely low temps in France and Benelux during Sun-Tue above the snowfields, surface temps there come close to Feb last year!

[bluearmy]

day 9 takes the energy nw which is what the odd gefs member did. the 00z ecm ens mean had this headed due west so no panic as yet although would be normal for the ens mean from the 12z to trend same way as the op so dont be surprised if it does. it depends what the 00z does as to whether its where we might be headed.

[kold weather]

Hmmm much stronger PV on this run than in previous runs, a good deal larger as well...not sure how much confidence to put into this run given that is the case...

216hrs shows the atlantic more or less ready to break the banks of that upper high...clinging on for dear life at 216hrs.

[Matty M]

That PV is really looking like setting up shop and becoming very intense near Hudson. I fear for the prospects of an easterly beyond Kent in this situation. Set up almost very good but with PV into Greenland I just can't see this cold getting far enough west to deliver a cold, unsettled snowy spell for UK&IRE.... Maybe Kent!

[Ice BIast]

The PV really bigs up at T216, so the high just gets bulldozed out of the way.

[SMU]

Sorry guys- dont worry about a PV huge over Baffin-

It supports the Scandi high if theres undercutting-

Expecting a great battle chart at 240 with heavy snow

S

[IDO]

There you go:

[Snowy Liverpool]

ECM looking far too close for comfort and most of the UK is stuck in no-mans land with cool temperatures and not quite cold enough for snow, which imo is worse than raging zonal. Hope is the biggest disappointment. GFS has the UK quite comfortably under the influence of the high Plus ECM refuses to show any high pressure over Greenland, if that continues the scandi high will be pushed away in no time. At least the trend is still there, but a shift west is needed.

[TEITS]

The ECM clearly shows that whilst a cold E,ly flow is likely to hit the UK, we are some distance away yet to even be thinking about snowfall especially your typical convective E,ly snowfalls.

[Wilxy]

Even tho the alantic breaks through at the end of the run it has some very cold air coming in behind it.

[Geordiesnow]

After struggling with it, this EC run doesn't really bring the cold pool into the UK and has the Atlantic trying to move in at the end, but who can trust it so far out...

I expect a slightly better EC ensemble tonight

Worth also mentioning that this run has some extremely low temps in France and Benelux during Sun-Tue above the snowfields, surface temps there come close to Feb last year!

I don't see the Atlantic moving on this run, but I think retrogression is unlikely with all those low heights over Greenland and Canada.

I suppose the main thing for me is the movement of that shortwave in the medium term rather than anything else in all honesty.

[nick sussex]

The ECM does seem to have stalled that shortwave in northern Germany which does seem a little strange.

We really need that to clear se otherwise the high orientates less favourably, this would effect the angle of any Atlantic attack.

I don't normally just bin outputs unless they're the NOGAPS but I'm happy to shred the later output from the ECM. I don't think I've ever seen a shortwave behave like this.

Maybe its the CPS Couch Potato Shortwave!

[SouthPennine88]

The ECM wouldn't bring anything overly Wintry to the UK although the potential is still all there, let's just hope these less cold runs aren't the subject of a turning trend which would see a remarkable three days or so of model watching perhaps put a little more dull.

Absolutely nothing mild though in store yet, always a great sign.

[Jayces]

Silly question but the ECM shows a mass of cold coming from the NW, could it be that is what will happen instead?

Maybe we are looking in the wrong place for our cold?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think that we are not going to get a 'clean' thrust from the east with attacks from W/SW always lurking. However, I don't see a retreat like t240 either. It is generally cold though and I think that's right, expecting snowmaggeddon ie 15 feet falls of snow and -10c by day is prob too much?

UK to be the drawn battle line for this month...that may be the story....which is a good story.

BBC SE just showed max temps of 2c daytime maxima for me down here on Thurs...that'll do me for starters

BFTP

Edited December 4, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[PolarWarsaw]

PV looking ominous from that run- as big as I can remember it for a while.

Trends are decent again- I just worry about a lack of proper cold.

[AWD]

GFS ensembles show both the control & Op to be at the cold end of the members in the medium term.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Large scatter, very difficult to make a decision on those.