South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ December 5th 2012>

[john pike]

Someone left it out when the kids were doing crayon drawings for homework?

thanks coast

was not sure

i will do the later fax charts tonight

glad i havent got to warn the councils over

the system coming in

it is very complicated

[Coast]

glad i havent got to warn the councils over the system coming in it is very complicated

They have Yamkin for that :lol:

[john pike]

They have Yamkin for that

i wonder why they ran out of salt

[Snow_day]

BRRRRR...I've just got in and although it has been cold today it feels freezing now that it's dark. Got to be one of the coldest days so far!

Hope we get some snow soon in west London Was disappointed when I woke up this morning and it was raining with puddles everywhere!

[john pike]

this is where i think snow is possible

when the low has just passed the south east

fax chart later for saturday 00 will hopefully

give us a better answer

[Coast]

I'll leave you with these 500-1000 HGT thickness charts to consider tonight, will it won't it?

Maybe, just in time for rush hour!

Edited December 5, 2012 by Coast

[throwoff]

So hang on are we saying maybe more tonight?

[Neilsouth]

No, maybe Friday... VERY low risk

[chilly milly]

Good evening. It is cold out there. Could feel the crunch under the tyres on the way home from Asda. All these bags of shopping and we're going to order in pizza. tut tut.

Currently 1.6c and steadily dropping.

[gottolovethisweather]

1.2c in Newbury and that's after a high of just 2.9c at 14:46, I love it.

Edited December 5, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Methuselah]

Clear and windy, after recent snow shower, 1.2C...

[john pike]

seeing a better agreement to the 15th still

only a handful of stray runs

another 1 day warm up 8 degrees if you can call it that

from the 11th onwards some very cold runs showing

gfs main run seems ok

then on the 15th loses the plot

all in all

looking

[shotski]

seeing a better agreement to the 15th still

only a handful of stray runs

another 1 day warm up 8 degrees if you can call it that

from the 11th onwards some very cold runs showing

gfs main run seems ok

then on the 15th loses the plot

all in all

looking

A good cluster to the 15th I would say JP, as you say looking very cold for the start of next week.

My only concerne is the possition of the low to the east of us next week, if it's too far north we

could end up with a cool easterly rather than the beast.

Edited December 5, 2012 by shotski

[Iceni]

Showers of the coast rarely make it inland because the cold land kills them. The sea is "warm" so helps pep up showers. UNLESS! You get a thames streamer and then it's game on for us in the south east!

And sometimes, like 3 years ago, we get snow in EA from a CHESHIRE streamer — I watched it track all the way across the country from the Mersey — which delivered a 20 cms here. They're very persistent things, streamers.

[john pike]

hi shotski

the only thing that i feel would cause that is if the jet shifts

further north

i think we should be ok on that for a while now as looks

likely to flow north east to south west on the northern arm

the southern arm taking a summer holiday a way south of us

Edited December 5, 2012 by john pike

[john pike]

ecm 120

the important one

ecm 144

the man from ecm he say yes

[shotski]

Hi John

Have you got a link to view the ECM ensemble members ? and what time do they come out.

as regards my above post, it was more some form of shortwave setting up that could disrupt the flow ?

Edited December 5, 2012 by shotski

[john pike]

heres one for shotski

you will like that

[gottolovethisweather]

A good cluster to the 15th I would say JP, as you say looking very cold for the start of next week.

My only concerne is the possition of the low to the east of us next week, if it's too far north we

could end up with a cool easterly rather than the beast.

And if that is the only concern, I would say BANK, in fact run all the way to the BANK with it. Judging by today's news from our wonderrful government, anything left in the bank would be noteworthy.

Edited December 5, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[john pike]

Hi John

Have you got a link to view the ECM ensemble members ? and what time do they come out.

hi mate

do not have them

sorry mate

best way to follow

the reason i said 144 was important is it follows on

from when gfs ensembles drop

all we need now is to see the fax in a couple of days to be

almost certain

looks really good though at present

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi John

Have you got a link to view the ECM ensemble members ? and what time do they come out.

Not JP here, but I was given this link the other day.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

[shotski]

And if that is the only concern, I would say BANK, in fact run all the way to the BANK with it. Judging by today's news from our wonderrful government, anything left in the bank will be noteworthy.

168 looks like it could be a snow fest for the south east, better bring in the army

Cheers Gotta

I was looking for a link so I could view all 51 members, or is it 50

Edited December 5, 2012 by shotski

[john pike]

oh ok 1 more

ecm 192

im off now to pass out somewhere

Not JP here, but I was given this link the other day.

http://www.knmi.nl/e...agse/index.html

thanks gtltw

bookmarked

[gottolovethisweather]

168 looks like it could be a snow fest for the south east, better bring in the army

Yes, I'd like to think so, once they've finished fighting pointless wars, they'll have to dig the SE out of trouble and slowly move the risk towards a channel low scenario. Oh, these are things that dreams are made of.

Simply perfect model runs at the moment.

Edited December 5, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[john pike]

look to our east

i cannot remember seeing colder charts