South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ December 5th 2012>

[Snowangel-MK]

ha on the subject, I have a train booked from Colchester to Cambridge on Wednesday afternoon. Could be a journey to remember with these sorts of charts!

[chilly milly]

I am trying so hard not to get excited by all the news about the models. I don't understand much but swathes of blue must be good. Accompanied by swathes of pink. The best winter I actually remember is Dec 81. I hope that we can get something on a par with that.

[chilly milly]

Please what do I say to a couple of local OAP's I know who are really suffering from the cold and havent a clue how they can pay to keep warm?

P

It is very difficult as I know some of our older generation can also be very proud and not want any help.

In your shoes, I would keep an eye on them, offer to get shopping, bring in soup (under the pretext that you made too much), remind them to keep extremeties warm...head and feet. Do they have relatives nearby? If I was really concerned I would try and get in touch with a relative.

[nanu]

I am trying so hard not to get excited by all the news about the models. I don't understand much but swathes of blue must be good. Accompanied by swathes of pink. The best winter I actually remember is Dec 81. I hope that we can get something on a par with that.

well put it this way... if those charts happen and all the other factors come into place ie: disturbances and troughs (lots of snow showers etc) we could be in serious trouble.. but il think there will be some down grades to this.. always is. BUT!! if those charts are still showing the same on sat/sunday.. god help us!!

[Met4Cast]

It is very difficult as I know some of our older generation can also be very proud and not want any help.

In your shoes, I would keep an eye on them, offer to get shopping, bring in soup (under the pretext that you made too much), remind them to keep extremeties warm...head and feet. Do they have relatives nearby? If I was really concerned I would try and get in touch with a relative.

I just want to add to this

- Turn heating off in all rooms accept the one they're in, it'll save on heating bills

- Do not sacrifice heath out of fear of not paying the bills, they can deal with that at a later date

[shotski]

this is a great link to all ensembles

http://www.meteociel...s/ensembles.php

awesome ecm

can't wait to see the 12z ensemble mean

Thanks SS

[Ben_Cambs]

Here's my take on tonight's output:

After a sharp frost tonight - temperatures falling to -6C in some rural areas, tomorrow will turn increasingly cloudy with rain arriving in the evening, and turning increasingly windy. Some back-edge snow is possible in the early hours of Friday. At the moment it is not likely to happen but as today's snowfall shows anything can happen. Friday will be mainly dry, with a few showers and remaining cool, though the wind will die down. Saturday will be a dry day for all with some sunny spells and maximum temperatures of around 5C, with a light frost heading into Sunday.

UKMO T+96: http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif

GFS T+96: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn961.png

ECM T+96: http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm961.gif

Very similar up to this timeframe. HP that will give the region a dry day on Saturday will be squished by an encroaching area of LP coming down the North Sea. Showers and perhaps a longer spell of rain to affect the east of the region, with the best chance of drier, but cloudier weather in the south and west of the region. Still remaining cool for the time of year.

UKMO T+120: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

GFS T+120: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

ECM T+120: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

Again, broadly similar synoptic patterns from the main three models out to T+120. LP over on the continent feeding N'ly/NNW'ly winds over the region. Turning colder with showers likely over the eastern side of the region and frost returning at night.

UKMO T+144: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

GFS T+144: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

ECM T+144: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

Differences at this timerange, notably UKMO is different compared to GFS and ECM, who are broadly similar. GFS and ECM have LP centred over Poland/Czech Republic with a huge blocking cell of HP to the north and east of the UK, feeding NE'ly winds down into the region. Some showers still feeding into the region, perhaps even increasingly wintry in nature. Sharp frosts by night and temperatures beginning to struggle by day. UKMO meanwhile having the area of LP in a similar position to the GFS, has a different orientation to the area of HP to the NE of Iceland. At this timeframe, the weather would be different compared to the other two models; remaining dry and quite cool though there is the influence of the Atlantic from an area of LP off the coast of Greenland.

GEFS London (T850): http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

Interestingly, the mean is heading down to around -6, -7C for the 850hPa temperatures from around the 11th. Mean never getting above -2C even into deep FI.

[masked_firefly]

Really hoping we can get a snow fest in, my little boy is almost 2, and his 'first winter' (last years rubbish) was poop!,

I've got a photo somewhere of my first winter and I'm waist deep in snow, I was born 1985 (March) so must have had a decent spot sometime that winter!.

Would love to be able to christen our 'first garden' (we were in a flat last year) with a nice big snow man.

Already warning family, particularly worried as have a grandad who is suffering from lung/throat cancer with only one working lung, so worried a cold snap will see his health detoriate further....

I'm a novice to charts etc but is the blue/pink just temperatures and not rainfall?!

[Dan the Man]

For someone that's a bit of a novice, how much snow would -8 to -12 850hPa output?

Looking at the following Saturday, its suggesting -14 to -16?! Must be an error, surely?

[shotski]

I just want to add to this

- Turn heating off in all rooms accept the one they're in, it'll save on heating bills

- Do not sacrifice heath out of fear of not paying the bills, they can deal with that at a later date

Good advice Daniel the only thing I would say is not to turn the heating off in the other rooms but keep it

very low as I see lots of Frozen/burst pipes in my work.

[Met4Cast]

For someone that's a bit of a novice, how much snow would -8 to -12 850hPa output?

Depends on wind direction, strength, etc..

It's too early to look at those details. If the ECM verified exactly as it currently stands though, we'd be digging outselfs out of our own houses.

Good advice Daniel the only thing I would say is not to turn the heating off in the other rooms but keep it

very low as I see lots of Frozen/burst pipes in my work.

Good idea!

It might be worth them investing in a portable gas heater, they're generally quite good and cheap to run if kept on low.

[JennyJane1]

Please what do I say to a couple of local OAP's I know who are really suffering from the cold and havent a clue how they can pay to keep warm?

P

I am under a duvet on the sofa with two hot water bottles.wear slippers, socks, vest

[shotski]

For someone that's a bit of a novice, how much snow would -8 to -12 850hPa output?

Looking at the following Saturday, its suggesting -14 to -16?! Must be an error, surely?

Could be zero snow or could be lots, its only the temperature 850 meters up.

closer to the time is when you can talk about snow with any confidence.

-14 to -16 are the 850 temps but they could easily produce a -20+ at our level under

clear conditions.

[nanu]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

"@gas82coops: @fergieweather i nearly droped my coffee when i seen the ECM tonight...looks cold" yes: good agreement now on this outcome

oh crap!!

[Suburban Streamer]

I am trying so hard not to get excited by all the news about the models. I don't understand much but swathes of blue must be good. Accompanied by swathes of pink. The best winter I actually remember is Dec 81. I hope that we can get something on a par with that.

u really do have to go quite far back to find charts which verified that are similar to tonights ecm.

here's a couple from 1963!

EDIT: and one from a little closer in time, jan 1987:

these blue and pink colours refer to upper air temps

For someone that's a bit of a novice, how much snow would -8 to -12 850hPa output?

Looking at the following Saturday, its suggesting -14 to -16?! Must be an error, surely?

those upper air temps don't tell u how much snow is likely to fall, they are a measure of the depth of cold. in terms of snow, uppers are only important when dealing with marginal situations like last night. if we have uppers of -6 or colder, we dont worry about marginality

[Dan the Man]

Could be zero snow or could be lots, its only the temperature 850 meters up.

closer to the time is when you can talk about snow with any confidence.

-14 to -16 are the 850 temps but they could easily produce a -20+ at our level under

clear conditions.

Thought as much. All it needs now is a weather system to come in off the Atlantic and bang - the classic battleground scenario.

Early days though.

[shotski]

Thought as much. All it needs now is a weather system to come in off the Atlantic and bang - the classic battleground scenario.

Early days though.

to be honest that's the last thing I'm looking for

[Brocken Spectre]

I'm off to The Highlands on Monday for a few days, don,t tell me I'm going to "miss out" or will it be just as much fun up there possibly?

Booked it as a "snow chasing" kind of trip....... D'oh!!

[nanu]

I'm off to The Highlands on Monday for a few days, don,t tell me I'm going to "miss out" or will it be just as much fun up there possibly?

Booked it as a "snow chasing" kind of trip....... D'oh!!

its gonna rain!!

[JennyJane1]

I have to go to a really important meeting for which "there will be NO excuse worthy of non-attendance".

[etched Chaos]

I've my fingers crossed that the beasterly comes to fruition. But if I end up in the snowless corridor again, I may explode.

[Gowon]

Good advice Daniel the only thing I would say is not to turn the heating off in the other rooms but keep it

very low as I see lots of Frozen/burst pipes in my work.

Good thing you mentioned that... we're all getting carried away with all the freezing weather on the way, fogetting the problems that come with it - frozen pipes, low food stocks in the supermarkets, travel chaos etc.... I'm quite looking forward to it actually. ....

[chilly milly]

well put it this way... if those charts happen and all the other factors come into place ie: disturbances and troughs (lots of snow showers etc) we could be in serious trouble.. but il think there will be some down grades to this.. always is. BUT!! if those charts are still showing the same on sat/sunday.. god help us!!

I've just been reading the model thread. I am astounded. Of course there is a lot that can change between now and then...whenever it is meant to start. I don't remember Jan 87 at all. Did it hit the London area, as I would have been Enfield around that time.

[Mrsf16]

I've just ordered my food shopping online... and added 10 litres of bottled water and a bag of de-icing salt... just in case We got caught out one winter when temps went down to -9 overnight with burst pipes and had no water for 3 days whilst we defrosted!!

[chilly milly]

u really do have to go quite far back to find charts which verified that are similar to tonights ecm.

here's a couple from 1963!

EDIT: and one from a little closer in time, jan 1987:

these blue and pink colours refer to upper air temps

those upper air temps don't tell u how much snow is likely to fall, they are a measure of the depth of cold. in terms of snow, uppers are only important when dealing with marginal situations like last night. if we have uppers of -6 or colder, we dont worry about marginality

I find the thought of a repeat of 1963 quite scary.