Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

[GoonerGregg77]

I'm sorry, but there will be downgrades, got to be, because if by tomorrow these charts are the same, or better even, then my lordy, people can really believe.

But, being a realist, you have to say, this is the highest of heights in terms of what you'd want from a easterly classic winter set up.

I'm prepared for it, believe me I am, were used to it right!

Come on, this can happen!!! Can it? Coz if this retreats, or becomes a complete and utter tease, then prozac would not be enough!

[pyrotech]

What's all this "Daxy Monssaw" business Pyro?

Its the answer i believe that everyone wants to know? I like a bit of fun on the forums as it helps instead of prozac.

[Staffordshire]

I refuse to get excited untill we are within at least 72 hours. A downgrade is inevitable, however i think the gfs may trend the same as 12z UKMO but a dimmed down version.

[pyrotech]

Do not worry about the 18Z GFS, its 12z and 18z have been consistant since late last week in going on two different tangents, it would be amazing to see the 18Z switch to something like the ECM but i feel for now it will keep singing its same tune. Its the ECM tomorrow that will be important and 12z GFS run tomorrow in my opinion. I hope i am wrong but i think the GFS will break a few hearts tonight in Fi but only because its 12z and 18z runs have been so different and consistant.

[WeatherGuru2012]

Frigg me! What an astonishing run. MIND BLOWING. Can you imagine the chaos that would bring to the uK, interruption to christmas shopping period, as it will be nearly running up to christmas, all sporting events football etc cancelled and travel and work chaos. But its fine by me!

[Long haul to mild]

The ECM ensembles may show the operational as an outlier right at the end, but on Thursday (T192, a very cold and snowy chart), there are still a number of members colder than it!

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png?6767676767

[Summer Sun]

I don't think Gibby is posting his usual update tonight but I could be wrong,

If so what a night to take off.

Has anyone got model fatigue yet?

If we get a backtrack now I think I would call it a day lol

Sorry for this been off topic

There's no report from Gibby tonight

PLEASE NOTE. There will be no report from me tonight but should be OK for the 00zs tomorrow morning. Lets hope I'm looking at a similar pattern this time tomorrow.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75105-model-thoughts-summaries-27th-nov-onward/page__st__40#entry2430765

Edited December 5, 2012 by Gavin.

[WhiteXmas]

I have a little inkling that it may not be a downgrade! No technical knowledge at all here folks but overall there has been a good agreement about the models in general recently.

[nick sussex]

exactly RP. the ecm op at day 10 is outside it spread wrt to uppers. around -10c in the se is the current limit according to the ens. could someone please link the postage stamps so we can see how consistent the ens are at day 7 please. naefs dribbling out soon and de bilt in approx 30 mins. then it will be eyes down for the pub run and only another 6 hours from then till the gfs 00z is available !! inconceivable that the ecm op will verify exactly like that but then the 00z seemed to be crazy enough ! strange times. note that NOAA cpc have a problem teleconnecting the two strongest hemispheric anomolous ridges week 2 and go for the pacific one ahead of the icelandic i preference (for the time being).

and last week is nothing like this week wrt the output. ecm jumped ship with the newfoundland energy at around T168/T192.

Here you go:

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

[weatherguy]

Even if there is a downgrade (chances are there will be one, simply due to the extremity of cold shown in the last run), that isn't to say we won't still get extreme cold - The ECM 12z has given us plenty of breathing space in that regard!

Plus we have plenty of agreement on at least some form of easterly taking place, it really is just the severity that is yet to be decided.

[weather eater]

It will be a miracle if the 18z is as good or even near as good as the ECM, but that doesn’t mean the ECM evolution is wrong.

[karlos1983]

If next week is to be, then the models will carry on giving, I see no reason why not? I've listened to some top posters in here, GP etc, stating all important signals are in place for blocking, way before these charts started to show, we have jumped some hurdles already that could have been spoilers, lets keep the trend going, and hopefully the detail is what we will be sweating on this time next week.

Eyes down then, could it be possible that we get an upgrade?

[bluearmy]

looking thru the ecm ens members, there are a few that look akin to the ukmo but not many. the easterly looks secure but the behaviour of the 'german trough' is what will provide the ammunition for any snowfall. that is where the question marks are.

naefs 12z update is, not surprisingly, spectacular. country in sub -4c air throughout week 2 which is very low for that range. the route week 2 is, as suggested by many, for the ridge to retrogress to greenland and the trough to drop into scandi. infact, the trough dropping in seems to be a remnant of the p/v migrating from canada towards siberia and splitting some energy into scandi. with the greeny ridge looking quite strong and the siberian ridge to the east preventing the trough from escaping in that direction, one wonders where it can go? se towards the eastern med or ne into scandi. with it held to our sw by the greeny heights and the southern arm with all the energy into southern iberia, this could easily take us through into the xmas period.

[Wilxy]

If next week is to be, then the models will carry on giving, I see no reason why not? I've listened to some top posters in here, GP etc, stating all important signals are in place for blocking, way before these charts started to show, we have jumped some hurdles already that could have been spoilers, lets keep the trend going, and hopefully the detail is what we will be sweating on this time next week.

Eyes down then, could it be possible that we get an upgrade?

I dont think it could get any better than ECM, as long as we see good agreement on stronger blocking to are NE il be happy,

[A.J]

I've just got home from work, and looked at the day's outputs, and then looked further into F1, and I don't know what the fuss is all about...Redbull stuff Ferrari, same old, same old.....

[ITSY]

just saw Nick Miller sneak us into Sunday weather - that SW was certainly sliding down the North Sea!

[If Wishes made Weather]

It does look now that some form of Easterly is likely to materialise, but I would note that the ECM is at the extreme end of its ensemble members. That though is good, because the statistically almost inevitable 'downgrades' simply move things into space that is likely to be still cold. Far too early to look at snowfall, but should it occur, then the East is more favoured owing to lake effect. One point I would note from members earlier today noting that the flow may be slack from the East, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Providing the uppers are cold enough, then more time over the sea, is more time for moisture to be absorbed.

Just as an aside, were the ECM to come to fruition, we may be out of the here is some snow and frost and isnt it fun, into something that could be a little more threatening for some.

[chionomaniac]

ECM extended ensembles suggesting cold the form horse:

The operational is an outlier day 10 - but up to that point well in the cluster and that cluster is evident for the rest of the run - though spreads as one would expect.

Oh and edit - no mild options and could the less cold runs be undercutting lows which could keep the UK in the colder air? Perhaps the control is?

Edited December 5, 2012 by chionomaniac

[MKN]

Is it me or are the precip type charts getting blurryier? Upgrades regarding snow Friday though

Edited December 5, 2012 by SnowTornado

[chionomaniac]

Looking closer. Here is Friday morning on the 18Z

courtesy of NW extra!

[fergieweather]

Just as an aside, were the ECM to come to fruition, we may be out of the here is some snow and frost and isnt it fun, into something that could be a little more threatening for some.

... and especially so for the elderly, with demonstrable mortality rise in previous such scenarios, plus dreadful news for many businesses; for ordinary folk trying to go about daily lives; for those trying to combat and recover from recent flooding woes; and for varied wildlife after a dismal summer. So rest assured, just as many of our viewership will pray that something as extreme as the EC12z doesn't become reality as those who do, because for many it's not a funny snowfest yahoo but a deadly serious matter. And rest assured, if a few days of EC runs shape-up something of that magnitude, the UKMO will tell loudly of such - not least given it's key role in shaping NHS Cold Weather alert status and contingency amongst governmental departments. We're nowhere close to that yet and I doubt we'll be until successive analyses of EC and MOGREPS output through the weekend.

Edited December 5, 2012 by fergieweather

[Allseasons-Si]

I have just come out of summer hibernation recently looking at the latest models,cpc's,ensembles etc and one of them that caught my eye is this,not sure if this is the latest that has been posted in the strat thread,but it does look good

does this have the effect on what is happening next week?,i saw a post about this somewhere though that it has a knock on effect a few weeks down the line,is this true.

[lorenzo]

What was it last night 41-51 solutions with a similar outcome...?? Stunning run so here are some more images, it deserves it.

These more around the temps and anomalies and streamlines.

Last few 10 days Ens runs of the 12z

And tonights thing of wonder with the GEFS counterpart.

Best run I have witnessed on here, that 12z ripped up the textbook and wrote a new one. Someone wrote that the 18z GFS follows the ECM, guess we will see in a moment !

[bluearmy]

surprised no one has commented on the perfect omega block on the day 10 ecm ens mean.

[Summer Sun]

Is it me or are the precip type charts getting blurryier? Upgrades regarding snow Friday though

Yes its very blurry hopefully it will be fixed in time