Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

[Tim Bland]

New NAE for tomorrow morning shows snow right down the centre of England.... Another last min upgrade?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=18&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[Timmytour]

A bit of trouble here....low over Iceland not as ready to drop away south east as previous was.....

[bobbydog]

... and especially so for the elderly, with demonstrable mortality rise in previous such scenarios, plus dreadful news for many businesses; for ordinary folk trying to go about daily lives; for those trying to combat and recover from recent flooding woes; and for varied wildlife after a dismal summer. So rest assured, just as many of our viewership will pray that something as extreme as the EC12z doesn't become reality as those who do, because for many it's not a funny snowfest yahoo but a deadly serious matter. And rest assured, if a few days of EC runs shape-up something of that magnitude, the UKMO will tell loudly of such - not least given it's key role in shaping NHS Cold Weather alert status and contingency amongst governmental departments. We're nowhere close to that yet and I doubt we'll be until successive analyses of EC and MOGREPS output through the weekend.

that is very true ian, however, we're not talking about dangerous sports or irresponsible behaviour which can affect other people. its nature- over which we have no control. as weather enthusiasts, no-one should have to feel guilty about enjoying the weather in all its forms

[ITSY]

s'all goood so far baby! bring on sunday!

[Bristawl Si]

... and especially so for the elderly, with demonstrable mortality rise in previous such scenarios, plus dreadful news for many businesses; for ordinary folk trying to go about daily lives; for those trying to combat and recover from recent flooding woes; and for varied wildlife after a dismal summer. So rest assured, just as many of our viewership will pray that something as extreme as the EC12z doesn't become reality as those who do, because for many it's not a funny snowfest yahoo but a deadly serious matter. And rest assured, if a few days of EC runs shape-up something of that magnitude, the UKMO will tell loudly of such - not least given it's key role in shaping NHS Cold Weather alert status and contingency amongst governmental departments. We're nowhere close to that yet and I doubt we'll be until successive analyses of EC and MOGREPS output through the weekend.

Thanks Ian - a solemn reminder for all on here of what this type of severe weather can mean for many.

Certainly my elderly parents are not looking forward to it if it materialises - the heating has been on almost continuously for last 6 wks, as it is, in their house.

[Ice BIast]

A bit of trouble here....low over Iceland not as ready to drop away south east as previous was.....

It's in exactly the same place as the ECM so far. Don't worry.

Edited December 5, 2012 by lce Blast

[chionomaniac]

... and especially so for the elderly, with demonstrable mortality rise in previous such scenarios, plus dreadful news for many businesses; for ordinary folk trying to go about daily lives; for those trying to combat and recover from recent flooding woes; and for varied wildlife after a dismal summer. So rest assured, just as many of our viewership will pray that something as extreme as the EC12z doesn't become reality as those who do, because for many it's not a funny snowfest yahoo but a deadly serious matter. And rest assured, if a few days of EC runs shape-up something of that magnitude, the UKMO will tell loudly of such - not least given it's key role in shaping NHS Cold Weather alert status and contingency amongst governmental departments. We're nowhere close to that yet and I doubt we'll be until successive analyses of EC and MOGREPS output through the weekend.

I think that will go for everyone in Europe. And should it look like the ECM comes close to verifying then I think everyone should look out for their vulnerable neighbours. I am sure that we could open a thread regarding this nearer the time if that looks the case.

No major changes on the 18Z other than Fridays precip up grade

[cooling climate]

Stunning ECM tonight. The runs from both the ECM and GFS have been

trending colder and potentially snowier although tonights ECM run takes

it to a different level altogether and I would certainly not right it off

just because it looks to good to be true.

I said Monday that the MET would probably go mainstream by Friday.After

tonights run from the ECM and its ens then they will in all likelyhood give

it one more day to be as near to certain as possible then let the public

know via the tv weather broadcasts.

The UKMO should be on board by tomorrow evening I would have thought.

Between t144 and t192 is the interesting part on the ECM run for its what

happens here that makes the difference between a very cold easterly with

snow showers and a bitterly cold easterly and snowmagedon.

At t144 we see the low over Europe being pulled apart with one piece of energy

going west and another going east engaging the very cold air to the east and

also helps prop up the high. Then the low and cold travel west over Europe and

the UK.

Hoping to see this on the 18z or ooz runs if so then the ECM run tonight will

not look so far fetched to some.

[Snowstorm1]

Thanks Ian - a solemn reminder for all on here of what this type of severe weather can mean for many.

Certainly my elderly parents are not looking forward to it if it materialises - the heating has been on almost continuously for last 6 wks, as it is, in their house.

Yes I agree that it does affect people and I have every sympathy but my point is we all have the right to the weather we like no matter how severe as we dont control the weather and make it happen just my own personal viewpoint anyway back on topic tomorrow could be a rather snowy surprise think...

[Allseasons-Si]

A bit of trouble here....low over Iceland not as ready to drop away south east as previous was.....

It's slightly further west though tt,and more of a eastley round the top or it instaed of NE.

[nick sussex]

A bit of trouble here....low over Iceland not as ready to drop away south east as previous was.....

Lol!

It's just a small timing issue, its fine. And again we've survived the shortwave drama! Lets hope for a nice modification from the UKMO in their fax charts later.

[Harsh Climate]

The low is digging more into the high and further west, so far so good.

[Timmytour]

It's in exactly the same place as the ECM so far. Don't worry.

i see a move west at the moment T96....hope it stays firm out into the east and pushes back

[bedlington83]

... and especially so for the elderly, with demonstrable mortality rise in previous such scenarios, plus dreadful news for many businesses; for ordinary folk trying to go about daily lives; for those trying to combat and recover from recent flooding woes; and for varied wildlife after a dismal summer. So rest assured, just as many of our viewership will pray that something as extreme as the EC12z doesn't become reality as those who do, because for many it's not a funny snowfest yahoo but a deadly serious matter. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20618018

Thank you. I've been thinking along similar lines but have been too afraid to give voice to my concerns until you posted this. There's nothing wrong with being excited about the current possibilities synoptically - I am, I love snow and the slightest chance of it appearing where I live I welcome with open arms. But there are others for whom its a disaster and, if anything like what is being suggested by the charts comes off, people will die. Sorry for putting a damper on things but as fergieweather says "for many it's not a funny snowfest yahoo but a deadly serious matter."

[If Wishes made Weather]

By 102 the Atlantic high is starting to arch over to the right over Iceland and meet up with the Scandi high - albeit slightly more northerly than on the 12z

[Southern Storm]

Up to +93 and we have another example of the 850s trending colder

Compared to the 12z.

so good on this run.

Edited December 5, 2012 by thunderman24

[Geordiesnow]

Has not been menturned much because of all the excitment but these 2 low pressure systems could well pack a punch in terms of the wind strength down the east coast, Friday's low looks the worse out of the two but gales to severe gales are possible.

This run looks more or less the same as the 12Z run so far.

[chris55]

Just a question for anyone who may know, how long does it take for a model to run it's cycle from the start.

So if the guys at the MET hit go on the 12z run, how many hours does it take for the computer to crunch the numbers and come up with a full runs results?

I know we get the info say 4/6 hours after the start time, but is that much later than those with direct access? Or does it take this long for the computer to do the number crunching?

It's something I have often wondered, any ideas?

[Allseasons-Si]

Atlantic ridge further north on the 18z compared to 12z,@93hrs

12z18z

[karlos1983]

GFS18z

ECM 12z

Looks good so far

[ITSY]

first time in several runs that we could see a slightly downgrade so far:

Less HP over Greenland (albeit better ridging over Svalbard) and the winds NE/N rather than E/NE

[Wilxy]

much weaker low pressure in the atlantic so far on this run

[ITSY]

first time in several runs that we could see a slightly downgrade so far:

Less HP over Greenland (albeit better ridging over Svalbard) and the winds NE/N rather than E/NE

All very IMBYish I should add!!

[AWD]

Those of you who watch every frame of every run are going to give yourself a heart attack before the easterly even arrives. :p

[karlos1983]

Those of you who watch every frame of every run are going to give yourself a heart attack before the easterly even arrives.

Noted, I'm off to take some Asprin and put the kettle on.