Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

[ITSY]

We all will, including myself, but there is no point in going further. Another run gone, another stella looking chart:

If the slider low goes the right way, this should happen. Lets wait and see it out though.

Edited December 5, 2012 by ITSY

[January Snowstorm]

At 132 hrs just look at those heights to our NE

Incredible!

[Matty M]

GFS looking good/great.

Only issue is the 850hPa temps are a bit disappoining in the flow, however ECM had this pool modelled much colder so it could easily be GFS underdoing it!

[chionomaniac]

At 132 hrs just look at those heights to our NE

Incredible!

For once you are telling the truth, JS!!!!!!!

[Geordiesnow]

What downgrade??? At 132 hours, we got slightly better troughing over europe, the heights nearer svalbord looks better(less shortwave activity), all in all, a very good run.

Whatever happens now is all for fantasy.

Just to note though, the GFS is quicker in sending the low down the North Sea than both of the euro models, this run did slow it down slightly but still quicker, just something to perhaps look out for in future GFS runs.

[Allseasons-Si]

Those of you who watch every frame of every run are going to give yourself a heart attack before the easterly even arrives.

i take it AWD that i am one of the many lol!,it's so exciting and most of all addictive

[If Wishes made Weather]

By 138 there is a clear squeeze on the central Atlantic high pressure from both sides. Presumably this will cut off a pocket of 'milder' air over Iceland.

[Optimus Prime]

The orientation of the high and the progression looks better to me. Not much going on in the atlantic either.

[cold snap]

My god

This is trending towards the ECM ,amazing

[LomondSnowstorm]

GFS 18Z:

ECM 12Z:

Scarily impressive consistency there.

Consistency maybe not the right word there, but scarily similar rather.

Edited December 5, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[Timmytour]

Come to daddy easterly

[January Snowstorm]

It's going to be a Stella run

At 138 hrs the seed is sown!

[Harsh Climate]

On gfs 18z, even as early as next tuesday, snow showers in east becoming more frequent and spreading inland!

[Weathizard]

Another GFS run another solid 144 output, solid. People hanging on every frame are going to cark it before the cold run gets here!

[cold snap]

Someone wake me up is this a dream

ECM and GFS both on the Stella

Another ice age run coming I feel

[Southern Storm]

Happy as a pig in excrement with this run! What a days model watching it has been.

I still won't believe this could happen until I'm snowed in.

[nick sussex]

Yessss! The UKMO have modified their raw output in the 120hrs fax chart.

[Allseasons-Si]

On gfs 18z, even as early as next tuesday, snow showers in east becoming more frequent and spreading inland!

yep,

Edited December 5, 2012 by allseasons-si

[karlos1983]

Yessss! The UKMO have modified their raw output in the 120hrs fax chart.

The Eagle is decending

[Optimus Prime]

Someone wake me up is this a dream

Not a dream, just the pub run which we've been told to bin several times before. I guess this time though what with the ECM popping the cherry first, this possibility may hold some extra weight.

[Timmytour]

It's almost like the early part of the run wound up a spring that has now sprung out and pushed the -5 uppers out even further west

[Harsh Climate]

wow 1726 users online now, wonder what the record is lol

Edited December 5, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[cold snap]

Sorry mods YEEEEEES

Ukmo fax says YEEEEES

[Snowy Easterlies]

what a run, atlantic is held back further again and a better easterly by next tuesday

[ITSY]

This will probably get missed amongst the colour, but excellent fax:

Easterly by Monday?