Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

[Geordiesnow]

GFS looking good/great.

Only issue is the 850hPa temps are a bit disappoining in the flow, however ECM had this pool modelled much colder so it could easily be GFS underdoing it!

And as we have seen in this cold shot, the cold actually got upgraded by all the models and we were quite close to having the -10hpa touching the east coast!

People may point out there is not as much PPN as you might suspect there might be but that could be down to thicknesses being a little high, this could easily change but the GFS 18Z still shows a sunshine and shower set up though.

On a side note I rather have the ECM/UKMO version of the Scandi high over the GFS, its more favorable in terms of trying to get that deeper cold pool further South and West and also perhaps looks less likely to sink away. However all the models(even the UKMO) are singing from the same hymn sheet, but more runs are still needed to firm things up.

[Weathizard]

Yessss! The UKMO have modified their raw output in the 120hrs fax chart.

BINGO surely all can't go wrong now? Can it?

[fergieweather]

Am anticipating a key step change in UKMO modified output and will update on this before midnight when the 4-5d full analysis is with us. Interesting times, folks.

[Timmytour]

Not a dream, just the pub run which we've been told to bin several times before. I guess this time though what with the ECM popping the cherry first, this possibility may hold some extra weight.

But for me it was the 18z yesterday which first started turning the "looking good" charts into "stonking" )

[Jason T]

Is this really happening,You could not make this up in a movie.

[Matty M]

GFS 18z looks PUB max.

Looks very ECM'esque.

Where's my parka

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=162&code=0&mode=1&carte=1

-8 uppers that will do ,buzzing

[Radiating Dendrite]

Can any of the senior guys point out what could still go wrong here? The easterly looks nailed.

Welcome to narnia boys!

[ITSY]

Today can be summed up in one word:

WOW

[Wilxy]

Thats identical at 168h!!!!!!!!

[chionomaniac]

Dirty, filthy chart for chionophobics this:

[Bristawl Si]

Am anticipating a key step change in UKMO modified output and will update on this before midnight when the 4-5d full analysis is with us. Interesting times, folks.

You're on in 5 mins on our local Beeb forecast - will u be dropping a hint in that forecast?

[Tim Bland]

Great times people! Even a little ramp from Ian there! Does anyone have a link to the updated faxs as meteoceiel is showing the old ones for me... Thanks in advance

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0

This is unreal seriously it's like the ECM frigid cold

Edited December 5, 2012 by cold snap

[ITSY]

Can any of the senior guys point out what could still go wrong here? The easterly looks nailed.

Welcome to narnia boys!

Rookie error! You've done it now!!

[Optimus Prime]

Is this really happening,You could not make this up in a movie.

I believe Roland Emmerich had a go at it.

[Harsh Climate]

This low currently over belgium, moving towards the UK would have a serious amount of snow wrapped round it, especially coming across a quite warm north sea

Edited December 5, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Jason T]

Steve Murr must have collapsed, ?

[Allseasons-Si]

@168 that lp is edging further towards us out of the low countries,sub snow off that maybe

[Mesoscale]

Wait for it..... give it two models runs and it could all change! Love the ramping but im going to go bald from waiting haha.

[SE Blizzards]

Oh my god! Ive been model watching for a while now but never have i seen such amazing charts! speechless! I'm going to need a lie down after all this! lol

[jessandjon]

Mods are going to have fun trying to tidy up the posts at the mo!!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Steve Murr must have collapsed, ?

He is in tesco stocking up on supplies!

Perhaps Paul needs some kind of parental lock on these charts? Pure filth!

[Hathers]

The stuff dreams are made of lol

[MKN]

Can any of the senior guys point out what could still go wrong here? The easterly looks nailed.

Welcome to narnia boys!

The danger imo has to be high pressure being sat over the UK rather than Iceland which would be cold but not at all snowy. Its been shown like it is now only for that to happen a few times before, most recently end of last January. Of course people say the signals etc were different then but imo if there is a danger that would be it. If we can get to +72 with all models showing what the +120s are now then I would hope were pass the point of no return