Far North of England Regional Discussion

[Alex95]

It has gone very dark considering its only 3:30!

[Andy_]

Looks like light sleet but most likely rain falling here, Snow is melting off the roof and dripping off at a rate higher than the rain !

Not falling very heavily if it is raining, i can't really tell the street lights aren't on yet but its went dark

Edited December 6, 2012 by Andy163

[Mick Ormiston]

Turning more to sleet here up in Consett

[Alex95]

Down to 3cm on the grass now!

[P-M]

Down to 3cm on the grass now!

You are lucky it's nearly aal gone here!!

Looks like light sleet but most likely rain falling here, Snow is melting off the roof and dripping off at a rate higher than the rain !

Not falling very heavily if it is raining, i can't really tell the street lights aren't on yet but its went dark

Howay man get outside and have a look for us on the coast!

[recklessabandon]

Pouring with rain in Durham city....all the ice lying about has a nice slick coating of rainwater....

[Andy_]

You are lucky it's nearly aal gone here!!

Howay man get outside and have a look for us on the coast!

Pretty sure its raining hahaha Temp 3C Dewpoint 2C

The snow is looking in a very sad state now

[P-M]

Pretty sure its raining hahaha Temp 3C Dewpoint 2C

The snow is looking in a very sad state now

Yeah but every cloud has a silver lining - no more icy pavements!

[Andy_]

Yeah but every cloud has a silver lining - no more icy pavements!

I'd rather not be able to walk than have cold rain! I'd be annoyed if we didn't have next week coming

[P-M]

I'd rather not be able to walk than have cold rain! I'd be annoyed if we didn't have next week coming

Aye to be fair it's probably why I am more chilled out tonight lol

[NickR]

Pouring with rain in Durham city....all the ice lying about has a nice slick coating of rainwater....

Well, it is rain, but I'd hardly say it's pouring!! lol

Some sleetiness - at least here in Gilesgate Moor.

[recklessabandon]

Well, it is rain, but I'd hardly say it's pouring!! lol

Some sleetiness - at least here in Gilesgate Moor.

I wouldn't like to be out in it any longer than needed ha ha ha....to be fair my office is top floor so sounds worse ;-)

[Alex95]

Spitting on with rain now. Anyway, the 12z is rolling out - grab a coffee or something and enjoy the show!

A good few inches up here by Tuesday morning if the 12z came off so far (+120 hrs). The 12z shows the 850s being a bit colder than the 06z too by a couple of degrees

The easterly flow is much slacker on the 12z, which might actually be good news for people within 10 miles of the east coast as it'll be less marginal.

Edited December 6, 2012 by Alza

[Andy_]

Spitting on with rain now. Anyway, the 12z is rolling out - grab a coffee or something and enjoy the show!

A good few inches up here by Tuesday morning if the 12z came off so far (+120 hrs). The 12z shows the 850s being a bit colder than the 06z too by a couple of degrees

The easterly flow is much slacker on the 12z, which might actually be good news for people within 10 miles of the east coast as it'll be less marginal.

I don't think i'll be happy unless we can -10 uppers for at least a short period in this easterly... Takes the stress away lmao

[paul tall]

2.9º and raining. Lovely. Still plenty of ice in my street which of course is now treacherous.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Spitting on with rain now. Anyway, the 12z is rolling out - grab a coffee or something and enjoy the show!

A good few inches up here by Tuesday morning if the 12z came off so far (+120 hrs). The 12z shows the 850s being a bit colder than the 06z too by a couple of degrees

The easterly flow is much slacker on the 12z, which might actually be good news for people within 10 miles of the east coast as it'll be less marginal.

I've realised that I may be going down to Norwich next week for when the easterly hits- Norwich is traditionally a very favourable location for snow in easterly setups (at least as much so as my current part of North Yorkshire) but I remember late Nov/early Dec 2010 all too well, when Norwich sat in a dry cloudy slot for three consecutive days with two inches of solid ice on the ground. The current progged setup shows more of a north to north-easterly over East Anglia though, which would make that scenario less likely.

Meanwhile for the north of England the slacker flow shown on the GFS 12Z run would indeed make it less marginal temperature-wise near the coast, but would also reduce the chances of many showers getting inland.

[Alex95]

-7 to -9 uppers on the 12z, but a much weaker flow. Win-win if marginal conditions are what you're worried about. We'd probably see a similarly severe cold spell to January 2010 in the NE if this run came off, which was very good despite not being as snowy as November 2010.

[Snowmaggedon]

Will the North East of England be one of the worst hit areas if the expected severe cold spell occurs next week?

[Alex95]

I've realised that I may be going down to Norwich next week for when the easterly hits- Norwich is traditionally a very favourable location for snow in easterly setups (at least as much so as my current part of North Yorkshire) but I remember late Nov/early Dec 2010 all too well, when Norwich sat in a dry cloudy slot for three consecutive days with two inches of solid ice on the ground. The current progged setup shows more of a north to north-easterly over East Anglia though, which would make that scenario less likely.

Meanwhile for the north of England the slacker flow shown on the GFS 12Z run would indeed make it less marginal temperature-wise near the coast, but would also reduce the chances of many showers getting inland.

Newcastle was pasted in December 2005 from a very weak easterly with -5 uppers, although they dipped to -10 as the easterly fizzled out (we only got one shower which actually lay, but that was enough!), but places west of Ponteland were quite snowless. Don't forget 22nd/23rd December 2010, 3-8 inches around Newcastle and South Northumberland from a very weak ENE as well - I had almost 10cm, and I think Morpeth was hit pretty badly.

Basically, a weak easterly would drive showers far enough inland to paste the likes of Durham, Newcastle etc, but they would tend to sit over these areas and fizzle out rather than push inland. Actually, a feeble flow can deliver particularly heavy and prolonged falls to those areas I mentioned.

I'm still slightly worried that this easterly will turn into a flabby area of high pressure stretching over Northern England leaving us dry, but with each passing run the risk is reduced.

Edited December 6, 2012 by Alza

[Thundery wintry showers]

UKMO 12Z looks similar to the GFS with a fairly slack north-easterly flow at T+96, T+120 and T+144:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html

Those charts look particularly conducive to heavy slow-moving snow showers from Newcastle/Durham eastwards in my view.

[Alex95]

Still room for big changes for the end of next week (we could be still in the freezer, or the Atlantic could come through), but I think some sort of convective easterly is looking likely for the start of next week at least. If the models haven't changed in 48 hours we could be pretty sure of it.

Lets hope yesterday & today were a nice taster for the wintry weather!

[Summer Sun]

Its a raw night out there with sleet now falling

[Thunder Snow]

No snow but a flood watch lol

[Alex95]

Mostly light rain here now, but there are definitely some flakes mixed in from time to time.

[misty3202]

Snowing between Stanley and Consett, but roads wet from rain/sleet earlier.